Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Build Like a Boss

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For me, trading has been an evolution towards ever greater systematisation.

My experience is that reading the charts and picking market direction is emotionally satisfying and financially devastating.

I am part of the species human, and we are a disappointing species. Despite years of moderately successful trading I have an unfortunate tendency to cheer for my trades like they were football teams.

I remember the winners and shove the losers into a dark cavern of my mind, never to be thought of again.

I obsess about market direction when I allow myself to, go down news rabbit holes, and generally hold a bunch of opinions which make things harder not easier.

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Don’t Count the Bears Out

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On Tuesday I talked about how you can improve virtually any system by filtering on ATR basis.

This is so obvious in retrospect, I can’t believe I didn’t notice this earlier in my trading career. High volatility and low volatility periods have completely different psychology, the same way trending and rangebound markets are driven by opposite psychology.

Basically, during decreasing volatility trending moves, counter trend setups are a negative edge.

But counter trend setups become viable again once ATR (as a proxy for volatility) reaches a historic low and then rises.

This is because volatility, once it starts falling, has a statistical tendency to continue falling until it reaches an extreme.

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Don’t Call It A Comeback

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Note from Tim: I was absolutely thrilled to get word from Scott a few days ago that he was returning to Slope! He has generously proposed contributing articles, which is terrific. During a rare international trip last August, Scott and I made arrangements to meet one another, but unfortunately we never connected. In any case, welcome back to the baddest bad-ass out there!

For those of you too young to remember me, allow me to re-introduce myself.

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