Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

U.S. Markets Emerging From Chaos

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The following dailyweekly and monthly charts of the four U.S. E-mini Futures Indices show that they are at the emerging edge of chaos [which is defined by three future-offset moving averages (green 5MA, -3), (red 8MA, -5), and (blue 13MA, -8)].

In all of these three timeframes, the NQ is the strongest and is the most favoured to continue its rally, while the ES is next, followed by the YM and RTY.

In the short term, watch for all three of the moving averages to curl upwards on the daily timeframe (with the green above the red above the blue), and for price to break and hold above all of them, to confirm that a sustainable rally is supported.


SPX Bull/Bear Battle Zone

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Shown on the following weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a one-period moving average (hlc/3) in the form of a blue cross.

As such, each cross represents weekly support and resistance levels. I’ve chosen to highlight a zone/range taken from the moving average from the week of March 2 (resistance at 3003.54) to the week of April 6 (support at 2727.65). The midway level is 2865.

The Balance of Power (BOP) currently lies with the sellers on this weekly timeframe.


SPX:VIX Ratio: The Next Hurdle

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IMPORTANT NOTE FROM TIM: Not to put too fine a point on it, a technician at our hosting firm thought it would be a fine idea to try to optimize our site by changing some network settings. Well, it sped the site up considerably, but also caused some instability. If the site seems shaky at times this morning………….it’s not you, it’s us. Rest assured we’ll get this straightened out, and soon thereafter I’ll hunting down this young chap to strangle him. Thank you.

The next hurdle for the SPX:VIX ratio is 80.00, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

As I mentioned in my post of March 122750 was an important level for the SPX. It was where its counterpart, the S&P E-mini Futures Index broke below the bottom of a long-term uptrending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel (taken from the 2009 low to 2020’s high) and was trading at 2441.00 that day. Such a technical break usually signals that a new bearish trend would form. On March 23, the SPX hit a new low of 2191.86 and reversed the next day.

The SPX closed back above 2750 on April 9 and remains above as of Tuesday’s close at 2846.06.


China and Australia Indices: An Abnormal Divergence

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As can be seen on the following monthly comparison chart of China’s Shanghai Index (SSEC) and the Australian 200 Futures Index (AUS200), their price swings began to markedly and, abnormally, diverge from December 2017 to present day.

While the AUS200 continued to make new swing highs, the SSEC failed to do so.

The AUS200 has plummeted and has now made a new swing low, while the SSEC has not…yet.

We’ll see if this significant weakness in the AUS200 is a harbinger of much further weakness to come in the SSEC in the next few days/weeks.