Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Friendly Reminder to Torture Yourself

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I want to remind everyone of Slope’s extremely unique page called Woulda Shoulda Coulda which lets you enter in any hypothetical trade and find out:

  • What it would be worth today;
  • What percentage change would have take place;
  • What maximum drawdown you would have had to endure at any point;
  • What the maximum loss would have been from your original investment.

As an example, let’s say the day after I sold Prophet, I put $50,000 into NFLX, which was a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of the cash that went into my account.

So this reveals a $50,000 investment in Netflix would be worth nearly $12 million today. This assumes, of course, I would have had the testicular fortitude to ignore a 22% drop in value and, far worse, a nearly 83% drawdown during this holding period.

I would normally be jumping off a bridge at this point, but I know there’s no way in hell I would have held on, so I’m going to let myself off the hook.

Great Scott!

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Good morning, everyone. Considering all the mayhem from Netflix (and congrats to those here who profited from it), it’s a surprisingly dull-feeling morning. As I’m typing this, the ES is unchanged (!) and the NQ is up over 20. Just to get a fresh post up for the day, I’ll show an updated chart of one of my shorts, Scotts Miracle Gro (symbol SMG). I entered this as $87 and have a stop of $85.50 on it. As of this moment, it’s trading at $81.

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Viewing Some Important ETFs

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As I mentioned on my Twitter feed, some folks are going to get a little confused (and misled) by the NQ since there’s all this chatter about Netflix’s plunge and yet the NQ is bright green (at least as of this writing). What they’re missing is that, in the few minutes between the close of the regular session and the close of the GLOBEX, the NQ went plunge-a-roony. When the new “day” began, everything is zeroed out, of course, and so the gain they see on the NQ is merely a fractional recapture of the loss it had earlier (tinted below in yellow).

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Triple Long View

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Good morning, Slopers, and welcome to a new week. The earnings season is finally going to start ramping up, and of course there’s that Putin/Trump meeting happening, so it should be an interesting few days.

There aren’t exactly a lot of fireworks this morning, so let’s take a step back and look at a few basics. First, the bonds below remain completely intact for what I am hoping is a sea-change in the world of bonds and rates. The uptrend, having been broken, was challenging with a multi-week rally, but this mercifully seems to have been repelled where I’ve put the arrow. My only two options positions are substantial stakes in XLU and XLF January 2019 puts, and obviously the XLU is quite dependent on a strengthening interest rate market. My opinion is that we’ll see bond prices tumble away from this resistance point.

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