Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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I want to remind everyone of Slope’s extremely unique page called Woulda Shoulda Coulda which lets you enter in any hypothetical trade and find out:
- What it would be worth today;
- What percentage change would have take place;
- What maximum drawdown you would have had to endure at any point;
- What the maximum loss would have been from your original investment.
As an example, let’s say the day after I sold Prophet, I put $50,000 into NFLX, which was a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of the cash that went into my account.
So this reveals a $50,000 investment in Netflix would be worth nearly $12 million today. This assumes, of course, I would have had the testicular fortitude to ignore a 22% drop in value and, far worse, a nearly 83% drawdown during this holding period.
I would normally be jumping off a bridge at this point, but I know there’s no way in hell I would have held on, so I’m going to let myself off the hook.
Well, that didn’t take long – – as of this writing, the entire Netflix-inspired pounding on the NASDAQ has been repaired.
Good morning, everyone. Considering all the mayhem from Netflix (and congrats to those here who profited from it), it’s a surprisingly dull-feeling morning. As I’m typing this, the ES is unchanged (!) and the NQ is up over 20. Just to get a fresh post up for the day, I’ll show an updated chart of one of my shorts, Scotts Miracle Gro (symbol SMG). I entered this as $87 and have a stop of $85.50 on it. As of this moment, it’s trading at $81.
As I mentioned on my Twitter feed, some folks are going to get a little confused (and misled) by the NQ since there’s all this chatter about Netflix’s plunge and yet the NQ is bright green (at least as of this writing). What they’re missing is that, in the few minutes between the close of the regular session and the close of the GLOBEX, the NQ went plunge-a-roony. When the new “day” began, everything is zeroed out, of course, and so the gain they see on the NQ is merely a fractional recapture of the loss it had earlier (tinted below in yellow).
It is understandable why people would be long Netflix going into earnings. (You can press Ctrl-E in SlopeCharts to see all historical earnings events). After all, NFLX reliably vaults higher every time they announce. This trend continued until……….it didn’t. As I said earlier, give me this same result with Amazon in 10 days, and this goose is cooked.
As I have no position at all in Netflix, I feel within my rights to respond to the stock getting the Kevin Spacey treatment after hours – har de har har har. Tee hee hee. Ho ho ho.
Between weakness in gold (which is nearing its 7th consecutive year of its own private bear market) and an oil market that’s down over 4% so far today, commodities continue to tumble away from their reversal pattern. I’m not expecting a hard fall, but things certainly seem poised to continue melting away for weeks to come.
Good morning, Slopers, and welcome to a new week. The earnings season is finally going to start ramping up, and of course there’s that Putin/Trump meeting happening, so it should be an interesting few days.
There aren’t exactly a lot of fireworks this morning, so let’s take a step back and look at a few basics. First, the bonds below remain completely intact for what I am hoping is a sea-change in the world of bonds and rates. The uptrend, having been broken, was challenging with a multi-week rally, but this mercifully seems to have been repelled where I’ve put the arrow. My only two options positions are substantial stakes in XLU and XLF January 2019 puts, and obviously the XLU is quite dependent on a strengthening interest rate market. My opinion is that we’ll see bond prices tumble away from this resistance point.
Crossing above the horizontal, at this point, is more important than crossing above lifetime highs.