Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

About To Crash?

By -

A decade ago I was seemingly always on the lookout for a crash.  It’s not a profitable long term strategy.  In recent years I literally found myself resisting the urge to participate in crash “theology”.  In most cases I would find if I paused, those moments would likely mark important bottoms.

The curious thing that happens mentally when you make that transition over a period of years, is that as I resist the urge to participate in a move that is getting away to the downside I begin to recognize more clearly when I’m out of step with the market.  I experienced that today.  The market had many good reasons to continue bouncing higher today.  It didn’t.  Today’s break of key support I imagine caught a lot of people off guard.  This is the environment where crashes are possible.

(more…)

Bonds. James Bonds.

By -

Well, happy Sunday Slope. Yesterday was an absolutely amazingly beautiful day here in Nashville. I think we were in the mid-80’s, and nothing but clear blue skies. I spent the day going into downtown Nashville to enjoy being outside. It was so nice to see Nashville bustling with masses of maskless people once again just enjoying life. (Editor’s note: agreed! On and on the plane! What a pleasure!)

In today’s article we’re going to take a look at my new friend, TLT. For those of you that have never traded TLT before, it is an ETF that tracks the long end of the US Treasury bond curve. It looks at bonds of 20 years and longer. Not exactly a high flying tech stock, eh? It’ll pay the bills.

(more…)

The Oil Top

By -

Well, happy weekend Slopeland!  I hope it has been a good start to 2022 for you.  It has certainly been an interesting and profitable year thus far, which brings me to today’s post.  I try to compose posts around what I perceive to be key turning points in markets, and I think our current market qualifies.  Today, I want to try to bring some closure to what has been my baby of late… crude oil.  I will also discuss interest rates, and the outlook for the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year.  Let’s take a look!

Below is a one year chart of the monstrosity that has become crude oil.  I have been heavily involved in the energy space for nearly two years now, coming off the Covid crash low.  On Monday through Wednesday of last week I sold off all of my energy-related positions.  Why did I do that, and what do I think is ahead for the oil market?

(more…)