I made my living writing Artificial Intelligence Algorithms for the financial markets in the 90’s and 2000’s. I developed one technique (and software program) for finding big (Kahuna) trades before they happened. Currently, most of you are enjoying the TLT short, which I will demonstrate was a predetermined Kahuna trade for July. Then I will show you the next Kahuna trade coming, going short XLF in July/August. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
In my last post, I saw possible chart-based turning points for the dollar and its component currencies, but bemoaned the lack of commercial positions data (except for the Yen) to support such an event. And as usual, the data overruled the charts and the dollar continued to work its way up and take the Euro, Pound and Yen down with it.
Ironically, where the commercial positions data did show a large long Yen position, the Yen did not go down to the extremes of the Euro and Pound. The lesson learned is the supporting data can turn a pure guess at a chart formation into a high probability trade or the heeding the lack of supporting data can avoid a costly mistake of taking a low probability trade. Now the question is where do the high probability trade opportunities exist this week due to significant commercial positions and supporting charts? (more…)
The $USD may have finished its bounce and may be ready to resume its downtrend. How can this happen with QE ending? One would think with QE ending, the $USD would be more scarce and valuable. But there is an opposing force. If a foreign bondholder believes QE is ending, their reaction would be to sell their bonds. To sell their bonds, they will sell dollars. The charts and commercial bond positions say the selling will overwhelm the buying. But the commercial currency positions are more neutral and missing the last three critical days of the dollar rebound. (more…)
The formation of a neckline for a head and shoulders in the $USD morphed into a really sweet move for those long the components of the $USD (British Pound, Euro, Yen). However, at this point, things seem to have reached a limit and the $USD seems due for a bounce. Let’s check the charts first. (more…)