This hasn’t exactly been a week replete with vividly-clear direction. The kinds of words that leap to mind when looking at recent ES activity are “sawtooth”, “zig-zag”, and “wild reversals”.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
Apologies for the lack of updates this week. It has been extremely busy. I should be back on a more normal schedule next week. Stan and I are doing our monthly free public webinar on FAANG stocks and key sectors tonight, and if you’d like to attend you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.
It has been an irritating week on the indices, from a promising start on ES/SPX and NQ/NDX, with high quality H&S patterns breaking down on all four, with then the H&S patterns on NQ/NDX failing into higher highs, and then the H&S on ES being invalidated at the highs last night, leaving the H&S on SPX as the sole survivor of the four patterns, having escaped invalidation by 0.13 handles at the highs yesterday. That still has an open target in the 2725 area.
So what is actually happening here? Well the overnight high on ES was very interesting as it established a three touch declining resistance trendline from the high. That was interesting because it suggests that a flag pattern is forming and, as long as that resistance holds, then ES should be on the way to confirm a pattern support trendline. After I recorded the video below I had a careful look to see if I could identify likely targets and I found two, both falling megaphone support alternate trendlines, and by the close today they would be in the 2728 and 2720 areas respectively. If ES trends down today, which I was talking about as a strong probability on the premarket video below, and is looking increasingly likely at the time of writing, then the target for this move is likely to be one of those trendlines. (more…)
Not much of a day today. We remain in the “Industrials weak, NASDAQ and Small Caps dominate” kind of market. It feels like January 2000 in that respect, as the old-school megacaps are getting left behind by the young upstarts.
I have written about Sotheby’s many times in the past, because it has the curious role of being basically the company catering specifically to Very Rich People. Let’s face it, folks like you and me aren’t bidding tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars on pieces of art. In the past, Sotheby’s has been an interesting harbinger of psychological shifts in the market, but I must say, I’m not seeing it here. It just keeps blasting to lifetime highs. All that central bank money has to flow somewhere, I guess……..might as well be a $150 million painting.
Following is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 504. For months now we have been tracking a divergence in the key cyclical Semiconductor Equipment segment (I am short AMAT & LRCX) to the broader Semi sector (ref. the most recent article from May 18th here) and this week we put more context to the divergence.
A Bull in a China Shop
In light of the developing trade war between the US and China, let’s review the all-important Semiconductor sector and in particular, the Semi Equipment segment, which is a key economic early bird (and canary in a coal mine).
Various sectors took hits on Friday as Trump moved forward with Tariffs on China. But most of those sectors and industries are follow-on aspects of the economic cycle, which got its start when the early bird chirped in early 2013.
With China in Trump’s crosshairs and China a very key player in Semi Fab Equipment, there is a fundamental reason that the Equipment companies are faltering. From SEMI by way of a post at nftrh.com in March.
“SEMI predicts Samsung will lead the pack in fab equipment spending in both 2018 and 2019, even though it will invest less each year than in 2017. By contrast, China will dramatically increase its year-over-year (YOY) fab equipment spending for the next two years – by 57 percent in 2018 and 60 percent in 2019 – to support fab projects from both overseas and domestic companies. The China spending surge will thrust it past Korea as the top spending region in 2019.” (more…)
I had a very busy, productive weekend, but in the midst of it, I commiserated with a number of fellow bloggers about the state of the market. Specifically, about how the hopeful days that started January 29th terminated far too swiftly on February 9th, and how we were grinding around at VIX-will-be-single-digits-again-land.
Their response, to a man, was pretty much “this is how bear markets start, with a shot across the bow, and then a big recovery rally to apply the smirk to bulls’ faces more firmly than ever and to break any remaining bearish hearts.” We’ll see if that holds true. For the moment, at least, it’s nice to wake up to some red. Here we see the NASDAQ has taken its entire end-of-week mega-rally and unwound it for really no reason in particular except for simmering trade wars.
The SPX 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed early this week is still open, there is another on NDX and one is brewing on RUT. Furthermore there are now possible daily sell signals brewing on both NDX and RUT, and if SPX retests the June high then there will also be one brewing on SPX.
Is SPX going to retest the June high? Most likely yes. I was talking about the possibility of that happening in the video below, and on the SPX 15min chart below that there is a double top setup that is acting very strangely until you see that it is actually a perfect bull flag channel that is in fact not acting strangely at all. When that breaks up SPX should retest the high and at that stage we might have a genuine double top setup.
One thing I’d mention though is that the next cycle low window is around 25th June. The longer SPX takes to top here, the shorter and likely shallower this retracement is likely to be. The current possible double top forming now would look for the 2750-60 area, and I’d note that rising support from the early May low would be in the right area in that timeframe.