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Well, the past couple of weeks all by themselves have played havoc with bulls and bears alike. Big drops and big recoveries have taken place back to back, and as I am typing this on Thursday evening, the ‘on again/off again’ Korea Peace Lovefest is back “on.” Over a span of two weeks, the market has been absolutely trapped inside a relatively tiny 35 point range.
In all this crazy madness, the bulls have never dropped the ball. Indeed, as we approach the end of the fifth month of this year, it seems quite clear the bulls remain absolutely and fully in control. Observe the Dow Composite and how the moving averages have been silky smooth without a single crossover. (more…)
SPX is still testing the open island top gap from the March rally high, and that has been solid resistance so far. My lean is that SPX will likely break up through that within a day or two, but there is now a clear alternate downside scenario shown on the SPX hourly chart below. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
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I was concerned on Thursday that SPX would fail to do the obvious second leg down on the likely overall bull flag forming here, and in all likelihood SPX has now broken up from that bull flag. Confirmation that SPX is going up directly comes on a fill of the open island top gap from the mid-March high at 2752.01.
I’m leaning against another leg down here but if the bears are going to have (yet) another try at that, then first support is at the ES weekly pivot 2718.25 (same area on SPX), then a break of rising support from the mid-May low, now in the 2712 ES area. (more…)
I was just thumbing through the posts from early February when the Dow lost thousands of points in a matter of days and then VIX exploded above 30. My, my, how quickly things change. We have now returned to a VIX that is just barely hanging on to 13 (it even when sub-teens last week):
What is likely happening here is that SPX is doing an ABC retracement while forming a bull flag to go higher. Wave A was the first leg down and wave B was likely the rally into the lower high that we have seen so far. What we should see next is the C leg down below the wave A low, possibly extending as low as the daily middle band in the 2679 area, before the next leg up on SPX.
However last year that’s not the way this worked. The uptrend was so strong that every time the moment came for a second leg down, SPX broke up instead. That was the 2017 playbook and I’m not expecting to see that here, but it’s on my mind as a possibility.
Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)