Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Timgarry Tim Ross

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My PLUS (AKA Slope GOLD) post for subscribers last week, on the 7th, must have been the timeliest of the year. Emerging markets have been absolutely falling to pieces, and after yesterday’s ridiculous, meaningless bounce-back rally, things are the proper color again: Red.

I’m getting a very late start this morning, so here are a few ETF charts I think merit observation. First is the oil and gas explorers, which is on the cusp of an important breakdown. This morning’s crude oil inventory report will abort this breakdown or get it rolling.

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The Wheels On The Bus Go Round and Round

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An unsettled open on ES last night with more rumblings from Turkey and lower lows on ES and NQ. I was asked before the open whether I thought there was a serious risk of the wheels coming off on SPX with a 5% or so retracement directly from here, and I replied that I thought that the risk was low, though possible as always.

There are four important support levels below, all shown on the SPX 60min chart. The first is the short term rising wedge support trendline at Friday’s low, supported by the daily middle band. As long as that holds the obvious next target is wedge resistance in the 2870 area. If that should break then there is strong established support in the 2800 area, which would also be the 38.2% retracement of the rising wedge. If 2800 was to break that could be a significant bearish break, but there would still be main channel support, currently in the 2765 area.

On the upside resistance is at the the ES weekly pivot at 2842 and the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently at 2845 and resistance so far both on Friday and today, then the open gap from 2853.58 that would need to be filled. After that the way would be clear for SPX to head back to short term wedge resistance and a likely test of the all time high at 2872.87. (more…)

The Bulls Drop Their Balls

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Earlier this week, I wrote a despairing post called Annihilation Nearly Complete. In it, I essentially said the bears were 99.9999% finished off, and that there was almost no hope left. (Oddly – – perhaps even schizophrenically – – I also did a post for PLUS users suggesting EWZ, EEM, and RSX as good short ideas, which turned out to be three great trades almost to the millisecond I posted it).

Putting up such an “all hope is lost” post is a true rarity for me. Indeed, it reminds me of October 2007. I actually managed to scrape up this fragment from the Internet archive which shows what I was writing back then; sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

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Bull Flag Compression

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ES has been compressing for a couple of days now, forming a likely bull flag for the next leg higher. That may have made a low overnight or may have a bit lower to go before the next leg up begins. A break and conversion to support of the current short term high at 2863.75 ES should clear the path to the all time high retest. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ:

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Gloria All-Red

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It’s been a very long time since I’ve woken up to a screen entirely red. Everything is down – – ES, NQ, crude oil, bonds. Of course, these aren’t huge drops, but at least the color is right.

I guess the inspiration is the tit-for-tat trade war going on between the US and China. One wonders just how much hundreds of billions of dollars in goods need to be subjected to these tariffs before the market really feels it. For our only family, we bought a new washer/dryer combination before these surcharges were slapped on.

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Looking Higher

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I am back from holiday and normal updates are resuming today.

The retracement last week was larger than expected and established a larger rising channel from the 2691.99 low that is part of the larger overall rising channel from 2594.62. Shorter term channel support is now in the 2803 area, and I’m looking in the video below at a possible short term retracement to backtest the new weekly pivot at 2824 ES / 2825.5 SPX, support by the 50 hour MA currently at 2823 SPX. Ideally we would test and reverse there to start the main move to the retest of the all time high. Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD: (more…)