Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

About the Stock Market Rally

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Okay, so now here come the bullish articles about how it is different from 2000 and 2007, how Elliott Waves predict a rise to SPX 3000 (maybe, because it may go down first) and after the fact, how peachy everything still is. Now, I am not saying the writers linked above (one of which was @ Biiwii) are flipping to or fro; just that they are with the general mood out there that is nice and comfy again.

But when we had our real-time subscriber update (now public) the mood, amid Italy and Trump Trade uproars, was anything but comfy. Indeed, the cacophony was in full swing and I felt the need to make sure we had the correct parameters rather than the incorrect parameters of sensation and emotion going on in the general financial media. Big deal, the S&P 500 was conducting a test of support and it was doing so amid an inflammatory news cycle. Where have you heard that before?

Here is the updated chart. In the span since our “high priority” (I reserve that descriptor for strategically key moments) update, the Good Ship Lollypop has held support like a charm and proceeded northward, in line with our favored plans. (more…)

Filling The Island Top Gap – Take Three

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We did our monthly free public Chart Chat yesterday and, if you missed that, you can see the recording posted on our June Free Webinars page.

ES/SPX has been forming a likely large bull flag over most of the last month, and the flag pattern is the unusual and very poorly named broadening formation, right angled and descending. I’m trying to think of a catchier name.

Be that as it may I like these patterns and, on ES overnight, that pattern has been starting to break up. The full target would be in the 2800-5 area, though we thinking we might see a retracement/backtest from the 2765-75 area, if the island top gap from the March high into 2752.021 can now finally be filled. Our expectation is that this gap should be filled today.

Partial Premarket Video from – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Like a Light Switch

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Just a comment cleaner to say…………well, THAT was kind of obvious, wasn’t it? This toggling, on-again/off-again, bipolar market prevails. Monday, a holiday. Tuesday, down big. Wednesday, up big. Thursday, down big. And today…… I even have to say it?

Indeed, it isn’t just this week. Looking at the SPY, which is the biggest and most basic of the ETFs, you can see this “change every single day” situation has been in force with almost perfection for longer than that.

Weakness and Strength

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Well, “BTFD” has worked for the 1,730th time in a row. It’s no surprise people believe in that simple strategy so much.

The market continues to be a mixed bag. Utilities, for example, my favorite index short, is still looking picture perfect from a moving averages perspective (which is all I am showing in this post). The crossovers are exactly what I want to see.


Night Swimming

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Hello, Slopers. I’m typing this late on Tuesday night. At the risk of unnecessarily embarrassing myself, I’ll go ahead and apologize for having some downtime Tuesday evening. Not to drill down into the gory details, but we were upgrading our security certificate (SSL) since we have a few “edge” cases (like folks on mobile phones) where the SSL wasn’t working. Well, a nuclear bomb pretty much went off, and after some very intense work, we were back in business again. But I deeply apologize for anyone who was wondering where the site was Tuesday night.

So as for the markets, what’s absolutely crucial is bonds. I keep saying that, I know, but it’s only because I believe it so deeply. As horrible as the past week has been for bond bears like myself, NOTHING has altered my big picture view. The topping pattern is huge, and the long-term trendline is broken. Period. End of story.