Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Break Like the Wind

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If there’s one thing I can show to swiftly illustrate the madness of the equity markets, it is the SlopeChart below. It represents Amazon’s trio of exponential moving averages (50, 100, 200). As you can see, there hasn’t been a single downside crossover………in THIRTY MONTHS. This, my friends, is what a one-way market looks like (and how a company gets to a trillion dollar market cap).

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What’s Bigger Than a Bubble?

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I spent a lot of time recently looking at the long-term index charts. We’re all familiar with the history of the Internet Bubble and the Housing Bubble. How gigantic they were, how they were fueled by puffery or outright lies, and how the housing bubble in particular was made possible through completely bogus credit ratings. Both of these prior bubbles were powered by Alan Greenspan and his multi-trillions of largesse, and they both had historic wipeouts.

But what struck me – – really, really stuck me – – was how PUNY those two bubbles were compared to the ascent we’ve seen over the past nine years. I mean……..just look at this!

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Control Top

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Before I get started, I wanted to mention that I just received the full-color version of Silicon Valley Babble On, and it is just gorgeous. If you’re one of the well-to-do Slopers out there, you might want to spring for this luxury item, because it looks absolutely fantastic. It’s not cheap at 79.95, but here’s a link if you’re interested.

Now I’d like to share with you three charts of the S&P 500 cash index. I have deliberately left off the axis labels, so you’ll know neither the times nor the prices.

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Just a Coupla Charts

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I wanted to share a couple of charts that have little to do with one another on this records-highs-are-everywhere day.

First up is Advanced Micro Devices. For many months, it looked like it was forming a reversal pattern, as it had done five prior times in its history. Instead, it broke above this pattern (green tint), tested it successfully a couple of times, and then – zoom – – a runaway stock. A moment of silence, please, for anyone who had shorted this. The Greater Fool Theory is in top gear now.

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Precious Metals, Commodities, US & Global Stocks

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A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).

Precious Metals

Gold, silver and gold stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today’s reversal painted them as short-term bounce patterns (‘W’ with a higher low in the miners and silver).

This chart of gold shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on. (more…)