If there’s one thing I can show to swiftly illustrate the madness of the equity markets, it is the SlopeChart below. It represents Amazon’s trio of exponential moving averages (50, 100, 200). As you can see, there hasn’t been a single downside crossover………in THIRTY MONTHS. This, my friends, is what a one-way market looks like (and how a company gets to a trillion dollar market cap).
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
I spent a lot of time recently looking at the long-term index charts. We’re all familiar with the history of the Internet Bubble and the Housing Bubble. How gigantic they were, how they were fueled by puffery or outright lies, and how the housing bubble in particular was made possible through completely bogus credit ratings. Both of these prior bubbles were powered by Alan Greenspan and his multi-trillions of largesse, and they both had historic wipeouts.
But what struck me – – really, really stuck me – – was how PUNY those two bubbles were compared to the ascent we’ve seen over the past nine years. I mean……..just look at this!
Before I get started, I wanted to mention that I just received the full-color version of Silicon Valley Babble On, and it is just gorgeous. If you’re one of the well-to-do Slopers out there, you might want to spring for this luxury item, because it looks absolutely fantastic. It’s not cheap at 79.95, but here’s a link if you’re interested.
Now I’d like to share with you three charts of the S&P 500 cash index. I have deliberately left off the axis labels, so you’ll know neither the times nor the prices.
I’m posting my full premarket video from this morning, as this is a very interesting area on most of the instruments covered, with significant reversals in progress on many of them. Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
Near where I live is a large astronomical radio at Stanford referred to as “The Dish”. It’s a very popular destination for hikers and joggers. Although I think it hasn’t been used in many years, it’s an important landmark around these parts.
I wanted to share a couple of charts that have little to do with one another on this records-highs-are-everywhere day.
First up is Advanced Micro Devices. For many months, it looked like it was forming a reversal pattern, as it had done five prior times in its history. Instead, it broke above this pattern (green tint), tested it successfully a couple of times, and then – zoom – – a runaway stock. A moment of silence, please, for anyone who had shorted this. The Greater Fool Theory is in top gear now.
A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).
Gold, silver and gold stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today’s reversal painted them as short-term bounce patterns (‘W’ with a higher low in the miners and silver).
This chart of gold shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on. (more…)
Not only do we now have the longest bull market in history on our hands, we also have one in which virtually every major index is at lifetime highs, having formed exceptionally clean basing patterns.
Seeing this table over on ZH made my jaw just about drop: