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Chart #1 is a monthly chart of WTIC Crude Oil (in the upper half) and the CL:OVX ratio (depicted in histogram format in the lower half).
As I’ve noted recently, the major price resistance and support levels are 80.00 and 60.00, respectively.
Corresponding to those are the major ratio resistance and support levels of 3.00 and 2.00, respectively. In this regard, it will be important for the ratio to remain above 2.00 and the ratio 5 MA to remain above the 8 MA to confirm an upward bias on Oil on this timeframe. (more…)
What a reversal today, eh? Jeeeeeeeeez. Anyway, just a glance at a couple of big commodity-focused funds, showing how the world of commodities (which everyone seems bullish about, since it’s an “inflation trade”, straight from the early 1970s) is going south.
Looking back at a longer-term monthly view of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) compared with GOLD (GC) (blue bars) and WTIC Crude Oil (CL) (pink bars), we saw a broad correlation among these regarding rallies and pullbacks…until 2011 when the bounce in GC and CL stalled and, ultimately, sank in mid-2014, especially CL when it plunged to (just below) post-financial crisis levels in January of 2016.
As I write this post at 11:50am ET on Friday, we see that, while the SPX is just below all-time highs, GC faces major resistance at 1350, and CL is swirling around 65.00 (major resistance/support). (more…)
Note: I’d like to thank Slope readers and especially Slope’s distinguished proprietor for the opportunity to post for you tales of Amigos, Horsemen, mania, greed, arrogance, stupidity, fear, terror and all the macro nerd stuff within my view of markets. Happy New Year SoH –Gary
Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.
CRB Index dwells below key resistance. A break of 200 would target around 250 in 2018.
CRB/SPX Ratio shows the utter devastation of the Goldilocks era of Central Bank inflation with no apparent consequences. This is not likely to last. (more…)
The commodity ETF symbol DBChad been trapped beneath resistance for over two years, but it broke out recently. The weakness we saw in crude oil earlier this week dragged it down some, but it’s push up off support at this point (see arrow). If this level holds (16.05) we could be entering a new upswing in commodities.
As for my own trading day – – MEH – – down half a percent at the moment, but holding tough.