This is from last June……..
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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What a reversal today, eh? Jeeeeeeeeez. Anyway, just a glance at a couple of big commodity-focused funds, showing how the world of commodities (which everyone seems bullish about, since it’s an “inflation trade”, straight from the early 1970s) is going south.
Looking back at a longer-term monthly view of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) compared with GOLD (GC) (blue bars) and WTIC Crude Oil (CL) (pink bars), we saw a broad correlation among these regarding rallies and pullbacks…until 2011 when the bounce in GC and CL stalled and, ultimately, sank in mid-2014, especially CL when it plunged to (just below) post-financial crisis levels in January of 2016.
As I write this post at 11:50am ET on Friday, we see that, while the SPX is just below all-time highs, GC faces major resistance at 1350, and CL is swirling around 65.00 (major resistance/support). (more…)
Let’s face it, the trend for the US Dollar is pretty clear. Trump’s weird little missive about a strong dollar yesterday was just a blip.
Note: I’d like to thank Slope readers and especially Slope’s distinguished proprietor for the opportunity to post for you tales of Amigos, Horsemen, mania, greed, arrogance, stupidity, fear, terror and all the macro nerd stuff within my view of markets. Happy New Year SoH –Gary
Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.
CRB Index dwells below key resistance. A break of 200 would target around 250 in 2018.
CRB/SPX Ratio shows the utter devastation of the Goldilocks era of Central Bank inflation with no apparent consequences. This is not likely to last. (more…)
As noted on the following Monthly chart, 72.00 (40% Fibonacci retracement level) could be the next major target for WTI Crude Oil.
Price briefly hit the 60.00 level today (Tuesday) and is trading above two levels of major support — 54.66 (23.6% Fib retracement level) and 48.00 (price and channel centreline support).
Commodities, particularly oil, continue to be strong. You can see the breakout a few weeks ago from the range DBC was in, and the successful test afterward.
The commodity ETF symbol DBC had been trapped beneath resistance for over two years, but it broke out recently. The weakness we saw in crude oil earlier this week dragged it down some, but it’s push up off support at this point (see arrow). If this level holds (16.05) we could be entering a new upswing in commodities.
As for my own trading day – – MEH – – down half a percent at the moment, but holding tough.
The following Year-to-Date and 2-Week graphs show which commodities (and commodity ETFs) have gained and lost the most (in terms of percentage) during those two time periods.
The second graph illustrates the massive 18.92% gains made in Gasoline during these past two weeks…no doubt, in anticipation of, and with respect to, current events surrounding the refinery shut-downs in Texas this week, due to the effects of Hurricane Harvey.
On a Year-to-Date basis, the laggards are WTIC Crude Oil, Brent Crude Oil, and the Agriculture ETF, while Copper leads in gains, followed by other metals.