Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

How High Will The Market Rally Before The Economic Collapse Begins?

By -

Last week, I wrote an article about how I view the potential effects of an economic collapse on American society. Unfortunately, many of our readers took it as an opportunity to post their perspectives on Trump and the democrats.

Yes, I know the country is exceptionally divided. However, I brought this issue to light not because I see one party as being the savior for this country over the other. Rather, I brought this issue to light to show you that we are on a path of history repeating itself, as we have forgotten the lessons learned from the pain of the past.

We all have to recognize that the United States took a big step down that slippery slope of socialism with the passage of The New Deal. Since then, it does not matter which party has been in power, as we have extended those socialistic policies when the masses thought it was “needed.” Thus, each generation since The New Deal has seen expanding socialistic policies. While you can argue whether you approve or disapprove of this progression, to ignore that we are on this path is foolish.

(more…)

Economic Combustion Powering SPX to Test All-Time High?

By -

A big-picture perspective of the S&P 500 (SPX) shows that the most recent up-leg off of the June 28 low at 2691.99 has climbed to a new high at 2816.25, or +4.6%.  In so doing, the SPX has hurdled its prior two significant rally peaks at June 13 (2791.47) and at March 13 (2801.90), positioning the index for upside continuation to my next optimal target zone of 2845-2860. 
 
Should such a scenario unfold, the SPX, in effect, will be climbing towards a test of its all-time high at 2872.87 from January 26 of this year. Only a break below 2789 will trigger initial signals that the June-July up-leg needs a breather.

(more…)

Bulls Follow Through

By -

The first week of July was really about the upside following through based on the overall rounding bottoming pattern and temporary low setup at the 2693.25 low from the last week of June. The market was able to cement the status of temporary low from June, and had a decent “stick save” on Monday July 2 at the 2698.5 lows before closing at the high of the day around 2726 to cement another higher low.
Fast forward, the market tested the key 2740-area resistance for the 3rd or 4th time time later in the week, and was pretty much destined for the breakout like we expected. If you recall, the 2748 and 2758 prior highs level got blown out of the waters on Friday when the acceleration began since the bull train erased all doubts in the minds of traders. Overall, it was a fairly easy week because we’re definitely back in the aggressive BTFD (“buy the f’in dip”) regime as it worked very well for the majority of the week.

The main takeaway from this week was that the weekly candle was able to wrap up its bullish marching band at the highs and it’s a large bull bar. All the trapped bears and bull chasers are now in a vicious cycle on getting squeezed and rushing back into playing the game of BTFD as long as trending support holds for the immediate short-term play. (more…)

This is It for Gold

By -

by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.

While I have gone on record as to why I do not think GLD ETF is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review this link for my webinar on the matter.

(more…)

Is It 2016 Again For U.S. Equities, Emerging Markets And Gold?

By -

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Bears seem to be roaming wherever you look, whether it be in the US equity market, the gold market, and especially in the emerging markets as of recently. Whether I read articles, or the comments to those articles, it seems there is a common expectation that “emerging market dominoes are falling” and it will “cause deleveraging and contagion” across portfolios worldwide.

It certainly sounds like a dire situation is developing in the world today. Does it not?

(more…)

There Is A Lot Of Financial Pain Coming For The United States Of America

By -

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

For those of you that have followed me through the years, you would know that I utilize Elliott Wave analysis to track the markets I follow within the context of both their smaller and larger cycles. And, to that end, you would know that I am neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear. Rather, I see the market as it is, and not as I believe it should be.

For example, when everyone was getting very bullish in late 2015, I warned that we were setting up for a drop from the 2100 region back down to the 1800 region. Yet, I also warned that investors should not get too bearish, since that pullback will set the market up for a multi-year rally pointing to 2600+ in the SPX.

(more…)

Is It Time To Just Sell All Your Gold?

By -

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.

While I have gone on record as to why I do not think GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review this link for my webinar on the matter.

Now, to answer the question I presented in the title to my article, I will simply say HECK NO! In fact, now is the time you want to be setting up your long positions, as we have a reasonably low-risk set up presented before us.

Over a week ago, I wrote my most recent public article on GLD, wherein I presented my general perspective, which was outlined in much more detail to our members, with specific charts:

“As long as the GLD remains below 126, I still see the potential for it to test the 122/123 region.” 

(more…)

We FINALLY Got Our Pullback In GLD

By -

We FINALLY Got Our Pullback In GLD

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Wed May 16 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  As the title notes, we are finally getting that 5th wave down in the GLD after weeks of meandering. Moreover, not only are we getting that 5th wave down, the 3rd wave within this 5th wave down extended beyond the 3.618 extension of waves i and ii down.  And, such a strong extension is certainly doing its job in getting even more people souring on this complex.

Moreover, as I am reading out there in the blog-world, it seems many are turning quite negative with gold breaking below its 200DMA.  Clearly, this is EXACTLY what we want to see to strike a bottom in the complex.

As you can see from the daily chart, the RSI has dropped down to the levels from which all prior rallies have begun.  Furthermore, the GLD is now below its daily Bollinger band, yet the MACD on the daily chart is providing us the positive divergences we want to see in this 5th wave of the c-wave of wave (2).

(more…)

Has The Market Crash Been Put On Hold Again?

By -

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Last weekend, I wrote an article entitled “The Market Is Going To Crash.” The response to that article garnered over 55,000 hits on Seeking Alpha, which is about 4-5 times the reads that I normally get on a stock market update.

This gives me anecdotal insight into where the overall sentiment is in the market today. It seems most investors are leaning quite bearish, and are looking for articles that support their own bearish bias.

And, as I noted last weekend, I am sorry to disappoint all of you who have a bearish bias. You see, the market is likely going to be heading over 3000, and potentially even over the next 12 months.

While I am sure you were taken in with the common expectation that the President’s abandoning the Iranian deal was going to tank the market, it seems the market never got that memo. Yes, we have yet another reason the market has ignored while it continued to climb higher. At this point, you would think that investors would be used to this if they have been paying attention in 2016 and 2017.

(more…)

How Does A Crypto Analyst Make A Mistake And Still Make Over 265% Profit?

By -

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Ryan Wilday is our newest analyst. When we found him, he had already been trading over two decades for a supplemental income, but without the Elliott Wave Theory. He was a quick study in the theory and soon was producing professionally accurate wave counts, according to our method- Fibonacci Pinball. Ryan was also an early adopter of cryptocurrency and trading the new asset class.

His life started to change in August 2017 when I brought him on staff at ElliottWave Trader to lead our cryptocurrency analysis team.

For the first few months, his new life was very quiet publicly, until he made a very timely call. In mid-October 2017, he made a call for STEEM, the currency of the Steemit social media site, to reach $5, perhaps by January 2018. The price at the time of his post was 92 cents.

A couple of guys from England — the hosts of the CryptoNights videoblog on Steemit — saw the post and interviewed him. This is where his work first came to public attention. While he’ll admit his timing was intuitive, he stood by the price target, which was an important Fibonacci level in his ElliottWave count for STEEM. STEEM first hit $5 on January 3, 2018. It moved on, topping at $9.24, before starting the correction we now find it in.

His original post is here, and you can see the CryptoNights videoblog interview here.

(more…)

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!