Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Semi Bearish?

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Over the last several years, beginning in 2013 I’ve made post titles like ‘Semi Bullish‘ in response to the bullish leading edge economic cycle indicator, the Semiconductor Equipment sector and its implications for broad stocks and the economy. Those implications of economic acceleration were along these lines… Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill (b2b) → Broad Semi → Manufacturing → Employment → Firm Economy. Shortly after the b2b was noted as bullish the SOX index and the S&P 500 broke out to new highs, not to even hint at looking back until the rocky 2015-2016 period.

The 2013 period launched everything we know as bullish today. (more…)

Economy and Inflation: Playing it Straight

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Sure, I am the guy with indicators called the 3 Amigos and in the future, the 4 Horsemen. I am the guy who for 17+ years has been making up catch phrases for indicators and market backdrops alike (ex. 30yr T bond Continuum, Armageddon ’08 and the Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance, etc.) entertaining, pissing off and confusing people, and maybe along the way doing some teaching too.

Currently we have the happy-go-lucky Amigos (SPX vs. Gold, 10yr/30yr Yields & the Flattening Yield Curve) front and center as they ride toward their destinations, the end of the journey to which would begin to change the macro. We also have a supremely sensitive proprietary indicator being used in NFTRH to significantly fine tune the process of interpreting changes to the current cycle. You’ve gotta come at the macro from as many rational angles as possible if you want to minimize its confusing aspects. (more…)

Catatonic

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If there’s one thing – – just one thing – – to remember as we move through 2018, it is this: bull markets die on good news, not bad news. With all the sunshine and flowers kicking around – -massive tax cuts, bonuses being handed out to American workers by the truckload, worldwide peace, and even talk of North and South Korea reuniting – – just keep that thought in mind.

I offer you Exhibit A this morning:

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(more…)

The Perfect Ten

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If I were to make a list of the things I want to write about, at the BOTTOM would be this stupid market, and at the TOP would be SlopeCharts. So – – get used to it – – you’re going to be hearing about my new favorite product a lot. At least until common sense returns.

Instead of doing a post of charts that would literally be about five feet tall, I’m going to provide you with the clean, simple URLs that will provide you ten really fascinating charts from the SWELL system. Just click any of these to see it in all its SlopeChartian glory. Enjoy!