This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
I wanted to share something that perhaps few people would see. My background was in semiconductor test. I spent almost 30 years in mixed-signal semiconductors working for a vendor of test equipment and then with a semiconductor company. Semiconductor testing is a massive market, every electronic item you buy is tested at the device/computer chip level, then as a circuit board filled with those components to verify functionality, and then as an end product.
Billions of dollars are spent on test equipment as an economy is expanding to meet the needs of manufacturing consumer products. For the testing, the tester is mated to another piece of equipment, called a handler, that together allows both pieces of equipment to test hundreds of devices an hour (perhaps thousands of devices an hour if it is quick to test). Entire manufacturing floors overseas are filled with this pairing of equipment that runs night and day, if needed, to crank out tested computer chips to be sold around the world. And yes everything gets tested. (more…)
• China is economically screwed up beyond belief.
• Xi realizes this (being the leader of financial reform in China).
• China’s economy is going to implode.
• Xi has to make sure he survives.
• Xi can’t reform the economy, so he’s prepared by purging the party of all opposition.
• Xi has anointed himself emperor so a future leader cannot scapegoat and execute him.
• Xi has to make sure the communist party survives.
• To maintain the imperial mandate of heaven, he has to unite the Chinese people around the Chinese Communist Party instead of having the people blame the CCP.
• Trump is perfect.
• Foreign aggressor.
• Plays on racial memories of the Boxer Rebellion and subjugation by the west.
• Incoherent trade war spun in the Chinese press as unfairly attacking China.
• Trump’s proposals won’t bring jobs back to the USA (as the factories will just move from China to other SE Asian manufacturing countries).
• China’s best way out of the financial implosion is rapid and drastic RMB devaluation. A trade war gives political justification for this.
• 40% minimum devaluation needed to save the Chinese financial system. SPX goes to 500.
• Trump gone at SPX’500. China can then negotiate with new American president. (more…)
It has in the past been “the financial crisis”, “the Euro crisis”, “Greek debt”, “Italian banks”, “the fiscal cliff”, “Brexit” and so on. Every one of those events an extension of Keynesianism and its debt-leveraged monetary magic tricks. But now the buzz phrase is “trade war”, a different kind of animal.
The brewing trade war with China is different. With every damn one of the events noted above we here in the anti-hype environs of nftrh.com (and before it, biiwii.com) have tried to maintain perspective about why it was occurring (Thing 1, which we had anticipated in essence if not in the exact way it played out) or why they would not prove long-term bearish or bring on the end of the world (Things 2-6). [Editor’s Note: at first glance, I thought this was a Biblical citation, until I realized there was not a book of Things, at least not in the King James Version to which I am accustomed. – Tim]
Indeed, we often note that inflammatory market events prove most often to be sentiment resets and buying opportunities as the herd pukes up its asset holdings. Keynesianism after all, has an elasticity to it despite its obvious and one day terminal faults. The elastic keeps stretching to this day. (more…)
Over the last several years, beginning in 2013 I’ve made post titles like ‘Semi Bullish‘ in response to the bullish leading edge economic cycle indicator, the Semiconductor Equipment sector and its implications for broad stocks and the economy. Those implications of economic acceleration were along these lines… Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill (b2b) → Broad Semi → Manufacturing → Employment → Firm Economy. Shortly after the b2b was noted as bullish the SOX index and the S&P 500 broke out to new highs, not to even hint at looking back until the rocky 2015-2016 period.
The 2013 period launched everything we know as bullish today. (more…)
Sure, I am the guy with indicators called the 3 Amigos and in the future, the 4 Horsemen. I am the guy who for 17+ years has been making up catch phrases for indicators and market backdrops alike (ex. 30yr T bond Continuum, Armageddon ’08 and the Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance, etc.) entertaining, pissing off and confusing people, and maybe along the way doing some teaching too.
Currently we have the happy-go-lucky Amigos (SPX vs. Gold, 10yr/30yr Yields & the Flattening Yield Curve) front and center as they ride toward their destinations, the end of the journey to which would begin to change the macro. We also have a supremely sensitive proprietary indicator being used in NFTRH to significantly fine tune the process of interpreting changes to the current cycle. You’ve gotta come at the macro from as many rational angles as possible if you want to minimize its confusing aspects. (more…)
If there’s one thing – – just one thing – – to remember as we move through 2018, it is this: bull markets die on good news, not bad news. With all the sunshine and flowers kicking around – -massive tax cuts, bonuses being handed out to American workers by the truckload, worldwide peace, and even talk of North and South Korea reuniting – – just keep that thought in mind.
If I were to make a list of the things I want to write about, at the BOTTOM would be this stupid market, and at the TOP would be SlopeCharts. So – – get used to it – – you’re going to be hearing about my new favorite product a lot. At least until common sense returns.
Instead of doing a post of charts that would literally be about five feet tall, I’m going to provide you with the clean, simple URLs that will provide you ten really fascinating charts from the SWELL system. Just click any of these to see it in all its SlopeChartian glory. Enjoy!