Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Economy and Inflation: Playing it Straight

By -

Sure, I am the guy with indicators called the 3 Amigos and in the future, the 4 Horsemen. I am the guy who for 17+ years has been making up catch phrases for indicators and market backdrops alike (ex. 30yr T bond Continuum, Armageddon ’08 and the Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance, etc.) entertaining, pissing off and confusing people, and maybe along the way doing some teaching too.

Currently we have the happy-go-lucky Amigos (SPX vs. Gold, 10yr/30yr Yields & the Flattening Yield Curve) front and center as they ride toward their destinations, the end of the journey to which would begin to change the macro. We also have a supremely sensitive proprietary indicator being used in NFTRH to significantly fine tune the process of interpreting changes to the current cycle. You’ve gotta come at the macro from as many rational angles as possible if you want to minimize its confusing aspects. (more…)

Catatonic

By -

If there’s one thing – – just one thing – – to remember as we move through 2018, it is this: bull markets die on good news, not bad news. With all the sunshine and flowers kicking around – -massive tax cuts, bonuses being handed out to American workers by the truckload, worldwide peace, and even talk of North and South Korea reuniting – – just keep that thought in mind.

I offer you Exhibit A this morning:

d

(more…)

The Perfect Ten

By -

If I were to make a list of the things I want to write about, at the BOTTOM would be this stupid market, and at the TOP would be SlopeCharts. So – – get used to it – – you’re going to be hearing about my new favorite product a lot. At least until common sense returns.

Instead of doing a post of charts that would literally be about five feet tall, I’m going to provide you with the clean, simple URLs that will provide you ten really fascinating charts from the SWELL system. Just click any of these to see it in all its SlopeChartian glory. Enjoy!

The Macro View: Amigos Ride On

By -

As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).

When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets.

Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well. (more…)

Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018

By -

Since January 2013 we have been using the worldwide Semiconductor Equipment industry as a leader within the Semiconductor sector, which is an economic cyclical leader itself. That month we noted a positive move in Equipment bookings, which became a (3 month) trend that spring. This trend was used to project positive economic signals to come.

Through some turbulence in 2014 and 2015 the sector has remained on ‘economic up’ along with our cross reference indicator, the Palladium/Gold ratio right up to the current time as the economic Canary in a Coal Mine has kept on chirping.

But on November 21, two days before the sector topped I derisively poked at the mainstream media for hyping the Semiconductor Equipment sector with its bold headlineFund manager looks beyond ‘FAANG’ stocks and finds even bigger winners for 2018. Talk about eyeball harvesting and greed stimulation. (more…)