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Quite a day so far! As I am typing this, the SPY is down 1/10th of a percent, the QQQ is up about 3/10th of a percent, but my all-short portfolio is up 1.4%. I’ve got a variety of energy shorts, and I am watching this trendline with great interest to see if it breaks:
The mighty weight of Slope’s bear power has been fully focused in oil as of late, as our beloved and hard working leader called a top on the black gold with accuracy that Dennis Gartman would pay for in U.S. dollar terms. (editor’s note: I’m touched!)
But is it time to pause or reverse? A bit of price and time analysis on the daily chart reveals a potential zone of trouble for bears.
First, let’s look at price.
When the front month contract switched to September on Tuesday evening, price gapped lower on the continuous chart to the top of the zone predicted by prior swing retracements in price amount during this bull market.
Oil is getting hit hard today, down well over 3%. If there was one chart I was watching that helped “call” a peak (and I’ve mentioned it on my Tastytrade show a bunch) it is ERX, which tends to peak and reverse at the horizontal I’ve drawn.
Ironically, probably my best call of the entire year was the one I kept being so embarrassed about: declaring that the crude oil gap at $73.25 would be the peak of a staggering, multi-hundred percent increase in energy over a period greater than two years. Yet that is almost precisely where it flipped around, getting as high as 72.83. Since then, KABOOM, oil has been vomiting all over itself. As it melts past that magenta area I’ve tinted, we have a failed bullish breakout, plain as day.
Sheesh, what is with this market? Tuesday was awesome for me. Wednesday was absolutely horrible. And now today, Thursday, is going great. Could the market make up its mind? No, I’ll go one better. Have the market go down 2% daily, every day, until it is 0. That’ll suit me nicely. This up/down/up/down stuff is driving both the good guys (the bears) and the wicked evildoers (the bulls) out of their respective minds. It’s sick.
Anyway. I wanted to share a couple of unrelated short ideas (tied together by my clever post title). The first is the financial sector, XLF, which gapped down nicely where that circle is shown. This sector peaked back on January 29th, and its gap is at 27.72. I have so many bank stocks in my portfolio already, it would be redundant for me to short this one too, but it’s a cool chart.