Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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The price of WTIC Crude Oil (CL) continues to churn in a tight sideways consolidation range as markets and world leaders digest Israel’s latest release of information regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
As shown on the following daily chart of CL, it’s still in uptrend on this timeframe, and this latest consolidation zone (green zone) may be a “bull flag” formation…suggesting higher prices ahead. (more…)
A well respected Slope trader posted more than once that he never/rarely sells oil futures (/cl) on a Friday.
So with plenty of backtesting to do on this Good Friday, I put that theory to the test, and found there’s a slight edge to that mindset.
The lookback: 5 calendar year 2012-2017.
314 end of week days (sometimes that was a Thursday)
9:00 a.m. EST until 2:30 p.m. EST (old pit hours still the highest liquidity, with 2:30 p.m. still used for settlement) (more…)
Note from Tim on “Focus” Posts: this weekend I decided to do things a little differently, and share some charts that were in a related industry. I am short all of these positions shown.
Welcome to a new week, everyone. First off, unrelated to anything, I’ve just got to see that this story about how California’s high-speed rail is going way over budget (tens of billions) and is going to be many years late is the least-surprising thing I’ve ever witnessed. California came up with this thing in the throes of the financial crisis, I guess as a changey-hopey way to convince citizens they were forward-thinking, but I immediately concluded it would be an utter debacle.
For those unfamiliar with it, the idea is basically to retrofit existing tracks, as well as build new ones, to create a sorta-kinda “high” speed train between San Francisco and, frankly, Disneyland (portrayed as “Anaheim”). This is not going to be anything like those amazing multi-hundred MPH beauties from Japan or China. No, in the end, it’s going to be an incredibly expensive, incredibly late, slightly-modernized train which they’ll probably wind up driving at 80 mph or so. My dire prediction seems to be right on target so far.
I bought puts where that red arrow is. I think we’re done now. On an unrelated note, I’ve been frantically lightening up my shorts – – ZH had an excellent article this morning calling for a low on the SP at 2540, and WOW, B of A (the analysts) nailed it!
As the outset, I’ll say I think oil is heading much lower, but for the moment, it seems energy stocks are………dare I use the word?………..oversold. I at least wanted to point out this mildly-interesting chart of the triple-bullish ETF symbol ERX, which is nestled on a supporting trendline.
As for my portfolio in general, the jury is still out about whether my lightening up this morning was wise or foolish. I remain short at about 100% of my portfolio’s value, but the difference is that I came into the day 200% short.
I last wrote about WTIC Crude Oil on December 26, 2017.
The following monthly chart shows that /CL has since rallied to retest its bearish moving average Death Cross apex at $65.00 and is hovering above that price, as well as its 50-month moving average.
If $72.00 is, indeed, in the cards, as I described in the aforementioned post (or even higher to retest $75.00 price resistance), it’s very important for /CL to hold above $65.00, now major support. A drop and hold below could send it tumbling back to $55.00, or lower.
As noted on the following Monthly chart, 72.00 (40% Fibonacci retracement level) could be the next major target for WTI Crude Oil.
Price briefly hit the 60.00 level today (Tuesday) and is trading above two levels of major support — 54.66 (23.6% Fib retracement level) and 48.00 (price and channel centreline support).
I hope you’re having a wonderful weekend, my Slope family. The Rev was a little under the weather this week, so my usual radio voice will have to be replaced by some illuminating keystrokes.
Before the year ends, I wanted to take a brief look back at the last six month, but more importantly, at the year ahead that awaits us. In my last market update, from June 23rd of this year, we discussed the continuing bull market in SPX and how it was following nicely the 10 year crude oil analog. We forecasted continued strength in SPX, as a period of sideways consolidation was likely to breakout to new highs before year end. SPX closed on 6/23 at 2438, and currently trades at 2675. Voila! The crude oil analog in practice. (more…)