Since the December 8, 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the Dow 30 Index has gained around 42.57%, as of 2:00 pm ET today (Thursday). It also crossed above a new all-time high of 25,500, as shown on the two Daily charts below.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
As Ecclesiastes notes, “There is nothing new under the sun.” This, too, applies to the stock market.
The average investor trap is the same throughout whatever period you wish to review. Markets become overexuberant, see a correction, sentiment resets, and markets rally on to their next phase of overexuberance. It is really that simple. Yet, we overcomplicate matters by relying on economics and fundamentals, which have proven to be relatively useless at major market turning points.
On this quiet holiday weekend, I thought I’d share a couple of very long-term charts (which PLUS users enjoy via SlopeCharts) Here’s the Dow 30 featuring Fibonacci retracements and a projection. As you can see, the projection has been exceeded (see inset); in the normal world, this is called a “failure”, but in the world of charting, it’s a “throwover.”
Based on what I saw during my visit last night, Disneyland’s newest ride is the Leap Over an Opioid Addict attraction just outside the park. They were all white males around thirty years old or so, sprawled out on the ground. At least it was more engaging than the boring Monsters Inc. ride inside the park itself.
But that’s not why we’re here. It’s a Sunday morning, and I’m out of posts (except for one waiting in the wings for the appropriate afternoon), so I’ll cobble one together. It isn’t easy, though. See, here’s what a normal market looks like:
Well, our fearless leader was at it again this morning:
Not to get all Elliott-Wavey on you, but I’ve made a very slight change to my $SPX chart with respect to its Fibonacci retracement. Specifically, I’ve moved the lower extreme to the 1980 low instead of the 1982 low, which I should have done in the first place!
Editor’s Note: What you are about to read is dead wrong. So keep reading, because there’s a correction later…………
As I mentioned when SlopeCharts was introduced, one advantage of forcing me off ProphetCharts (which I have been using for a dozen years) was that I would get a fresh perspective on the markets. With all my symbols, trendlines, and other embellishments gone, I’d be able to perhaps shake off some old biases (or at least reduce them).
In that spirit, I offer this rather surprising post, in which I offer up the prospect of equity markets rising another 10% or so. Now perhaps my stating such a thing – – me, the permabear, saying something broadly bullish – – will be taken by some as a sign of the market top. I’ll happily exchange ridicule for top-ticking a market in exchange for a true downtrend! But regardless, here we go……….