Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

U.S. Dollar Peaking?

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Now that POTUS has weighed directly into the currency manipulation issue, basically accusing both the EU and China of manipulating their currencies lower to achieve competitive advantage while the US economy attempts to fire on all cylinders amid a rising rate cycle, the trading world has been put on notice that POTUS can and probably will play that game, too. Or at least he may jawbone about a lower USD to achieve the same goal without actually forcing the Treasury to intervene in the markets.

It is through this quasi-politically charged prism that we now view the technical set up ahead of the next potentially significant directional move in the USD.

Looking at the BIG picture chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), we can make the case  from a pattern perspective that the powerful decline from the January 3, 2017 high at 103.82 to the February 16, 2018 low at 88.25 ended the first major down-leg of an incomplete USD bear phase.  This was followed by a February-July counter-trend rally into the 95.50/65 area, which represents a recovery of almost exactly 50% of the prior initial down-leg. (more…)

Crypto-Chart

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Although I’ve never owned a penny of any cryptocurrency, I find their charts fascinating. They are much better-behaved than equities these days………….maybe because they are actually – gasp – permitted to go up and down based on natural economic laws instead of trillions of dollars of distortion.

Anyway, Bitcoin is the king of them all, and its chart is particularly intriguing. It broken its symmetric triangle (red circle below) and ground down to under $6000, having peaked at almost $20,000 last December. However, it rallied mightily up to, yep, just underneath that broken trendline. Here we see a textbook example of support magically changing roles to resistance.

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The Weight of the World

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Now that Bitcoin has breached $6,000, it should be melting away, but I suspect enough major players realize how vulnerable crypto is at these levels that they are doing a yeoman’s job keeping things propped up for now. From a support/resistance perspective, there is little in the way of support at these levels, however. One piece of bad news from some corner of the earth should start things sinking in earnest.

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$545 Ether and $7045 Bitcoin Are Key Areas to Watch

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By Ryan Wilday, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Those key levels were $7075 and $505, the May 28 lows.

And, while it did bring bitcoin down hard, we’ve seen very little decline in ethereum. I had suggested in previous writings and on my Korelin Report discussions that we’ve seen some fledgling signs of decoupling in some alt coins from bitcoin movements since April. This is further evidence.

Not only did bitcoin break $7075 but plummeted a further 18% to $5770, while ethereum dropped only 14%. While this may seem like splitting hairs, this with the relative outperformance in ethereum since April is significant in my world. Ethereum is a higher beta asset than bitcoin. This means it normally moves farther in both directions. But not this time.

Also, when measured by Fibonacci extensions, it can still be said that ethereum may be holding on to a bullish, albeit tested setup. No chance in bitcoin. It is has already broken April and February lows. (more…)

The Conundrum Of The US Dollar

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

I am going to do a larger degree overview of the DXY, since I have not done one in while, and I have been getting a number of questions about it of late.  So, if you are following along, please take a look at the attached monthly chart, as I go through the progression of where I think we are in the larger degree time frames.

Back in 2011, we correctly saw the impending multi-year rally developing in the DXY, whereas most others were looking for the dollar to crash.  In fact, our target was 103.53, the 1.618 extension from the 73 region, which we exceeded by 29 cents before the market turned back down.  And, to put this market call into context, many of you may remember the certainty within the market that the dollar was going to crash due to all the QE thrown at it.  Yet, the exact opposite occurred, which clearly surprised most of the market . . . well . . . at least those who were not reading our analysis.

Initially, I had expected the turn down in the DXY from 103.53 to be a 4th wave, which would hold support at the 91.70 region, the 1.00 extension and common target for a 4th wave. However, when we exceeded that support to the downside, we then overlapped into what I was initially counting as wave 1 off the 2008 lows (now labeled as an a-wave), which then invalidated the standard impulsive structure I was tracking since that time.  This caused me to re-assess the entire structure since 2008, which has me viewing the larger structure now as a corrective rally into 103.82.

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Ethereum & Bitcoin: First Sign of Unravelling Cryptos

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By Ryan Wilday, ElliottWaveTrader.net
In articles starting in April I discussed the bullish impulse we had seen off the April lows for nearly every coin I track. And, I discussed how the lows on May 28 were testing levels that, if broken, threatened the continuation of that impulse.

Unfortunately, as of writing, those levels have broken. These levels were $7075 in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and $505 in ethereum (ETH-USD). And, while we have a few outliers in the cryptocurrency, most coins are following suit.

Is all lost?

While this can seem disastrous, especially for those with large holdings, I still believe we’ll see long-term support hold. In fact, most markets push bullish levels to the limit before bottoming, and I’ve seen it time and time again in the crypto market. This may be one of those times. But we must see.

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