Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Now that POTUS has weighed directly into the currency manipulation issue, basically accusing both the EU and China of manipulating their currencies lower to achieve competitive advantage while the US economy attempts to fire on all cylinders amid a rising rate cycle, the trading world has been put on notice that POTUS can and probably will play that game, too. Or at least he may jawbone about a lower USD to achieve the same goal without actually forcing the Treasury to intervene in the markets.
It is through this quasi-politically charged prism that we now view the technical set up ahead of the next potentially significant directional move in the USD.
Looking at the BIG picture chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), we can make the case from a pattern perspective that the powerful decline from the January 3, 2017 high at 103.82 to the February 16, 2018 low at 88.25 ended the first major down-leg of an incomplete USD bear phase. This was followed by a February-July counter-trend rally into the 95.50/65 area, which represents a recovery of almost exactly 50% of the prior initial down-leg. (more…)
Although I’ve never owned a penny of any cryptocurrency, I find their charts fascinating. They are much better-behaved than equities these days………….maybe because they are actually – gasp – permitted to go up and down based on natural economic laws instead of trillions of dollars of distortion.
Anyway, Bitcoin is the king of them all, and its chart is particularly intriguing. It broken its symmetric triangle (red circle below) and ground down to under $6000, having peaked at almost $20,000 last December. However, it rallied mightily up to, yep, just underneath that broken trendline. Here we see a textbook example of support magically changing roles to resistance.
Even with the recent “pop” in $BTC prices, I wanted to share a few bearish charts. I’ve been yammering on about cryptos more than is necessary, I suspect (I’ve never owned a single one), but as a chartist I’ve been captivated at all the right triangles showing up, as with Bitcoin:
Now that Bitcoin has breached $6,000, it should be melting away, but I suspect enough major players realize how vulnerable crypto is at these levels that they are doing a yeoman’s job keeping things propped up for now. From a support/resistance perspective, there is little in the way of support at these levels, however. One piece of bad news from some corner of the earth should start things sinking in earnest.
Given what’s been going on in the crypto space the past six months (that is, catastrophe), I punched in the search term “#cryptogenius” in Twitter just to see what would come back. I thought it would be a bunch of snarky stuff about Altucher, but instead this tweet from January of this year was what popped up:
Six thousand dollars. That’s the only figure the entire crypto world has to keep in mind. Break it, Bitcoin, and it’s the end of the world. You can practically hear the snare drums in the background.
Well, now that THIS nonsense is out of the way (with a complete pratfall by John “no thanks, I’m not that hungry” McAfee)………….