Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Bigger Bubble: Bitcoin Or The Stock Market?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Bubbles in Nasdaq, bubbles in financial assets, bubbles in cryptos . . . bubbles are being reported everywhere. Moreover, more and more analysts are pointing to some financial crisis after another as each day goes by. Whether it is because of the cessation of QE, or because of the issues in Italy, or trade wars, etc., we are clearly not lacking for any reasons as to why this market should crash.

The problem is that most bubble-callers have no objective perspective through which they can determine that any market is in a bubble. As an example, one article I recently read suggests we are in a bubble in the Nasdaq because we have exceeded the 2000 bubble high in the market. Well, along those lines, maybe the Dow should not have exceeded the “bubble high” it struck in 1929!?

Now, I want to highlight the ultimate intellectual dishonesty and inconsistency in most of their thinking regarding bubbles. You see, many of these same analysts are looking for a massive rally in gold. Yet, one has to wonder why they can logically see gold rally well past its “bubble high” struck in 2011, but they are unable to accept any other market rallying beyond their “bubble highs” struck in recent history? I think one has to start viewing much of the analysis being published today as more emotionally-based rather than analytically-based.

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What a Piece of Bit

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I’ve never put a penny into the world of cryptos, but I find the financial and psychological phenomena around that “industry” (ha!) to be fascinating. Since mid-December, the bloom has come off the rose, to say the least, but it hasn’t been a straight line down. Indeed, Bitcoin a few weeks ago looked like it might muster back into the quintuple-digits again (which would mean merely a 50% drop from its highs), but its hands slipped away from that rope.

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Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos?

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Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos?

By Ryan Wilday, ElliottWaveTrader

Since leaving my job as a corporate design manager to analyze and trade cryptos (among other things), I’ve gained new attention from old colleagues. In circles of my former profession, I’m the guy that retired to trade for a living. While my departure from corporate life was something I planned for many years, cryptos certainly gave those plans a shot in the arm.

Regardless of how it came about, my early ‘retirement’ carries some lore; ‘He must have made millions on Bitcoin’ I’m sure some say. (more…)

Bitcoin’s Slippery Search for Fair Value

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My last post on Bitcoin made reference to a bearish engulfing candle that had formed on the daily timeframe.

Since then, its price drifted slightly upwards, then plunged and closed below the low of that candle on Friday, as shown on the following daily chart.

The momentum and rate-of-change indicators did not confirm the recent higher price high, but are both in an accelerating diverging downtrend, and are below their zero levels.

Bitcoin Daily

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Is 90.00 a Floor for the US Dollar?

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The following monthly chart of the US Dollar (DX) contains three Andrew’s Pitchfork channels. The channel median apex for the two largest ones (pink and blue) sits at 90.00 and forms major channel support.

Price has been swirling around 90.00 since mid-January of this year. Recently, the DX has found support at the bottom of the smallest channel (green), which begins in March 2008. The momentum indicator has made a lower swing low, so it remains in downtrend on this timeframe and is still below the zero level, but has recently hooked upward.

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Two Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin

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As shown on the daily chart below, Bitcoin has recently broken above several types of resistance, namely a downtrending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel, and two downtrend lines.

There are two potential scenarios for Bitcoin relative to the pitchfork channel:

  1. price spikes up to its 200% Fibonacci outer edge, which is currently around the 10000 level, or
  2. price drops back down to its 100% Fib channel edge, which is currently around 4000.

Keep an eye on the momentum indicator. It’s in the process of forming a higher swing high, hinting of further strength ahead, but we’d need to see a series of higher price swing highs and lows to suggest that its downtrend has reversed with any conviction. Otherwise, it may head towards 4000. (more…)