Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
It’s the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (in play since we began this goofy metaphor last fall), which would signal macro changes to come. When you are talking about the macro however, things move slowly and to date, only one of our riders has made it to his destination.
To review, they are Amigos 1-3, Chevy, Steve, and Martin.
- Stocks vs. Gold
- 10yr & 30yr Yields
- The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve
Below we’ll review a daily (short-term) and monthly (long-term) chart of each to check the status.
Amigo #1: Stocks vs. Gold
We noted Amigo #1’s eyes closed as stocks vs. gold took a big plunge in early February and again in March. This has actually set a lower highs, lower lows downtrend in 2018, and the swings have been very dynamic. Right now we are on an up swing and if you are a gold bug and this ratio rises above the March high please prepare to take caution, as the macro would be moving against you, at least relative to risk ‘on’ assets. But for now the lower highs and lower lows daily trend is intact. (more…)
If you think I ever stop thinking about Slope, just look at the side of my pool. As I am doing laps, whenever I have an idea, I grab a chlorine tablet and scrawl it on the side. By the end of my little workout, I’ve usually got a bunch.
Well, I’m glad the site is doing so well, because the markets over the past week have made me feel pretty lousy. It’s nice to at least have Slope humming along to comfort me.
I’d like to offer the following off-the-wall musings as a very different take on the market. It’s a disposition that many, many people share, and perhaps it would help me get in sync with the rest of the planet to actually type what everyone else is thinking. I submit this to be neither facetious nor wry. So here goes.
(1) Just as humanity as made sufficient advancements in technology to, for example, feed everyone on the planet, so, too, have we reached a sophistication in knowledge and financial management rendering bear markets permanently extinct. Yes, there will be occasional dips from time to time (see green tints), but these will swiftly be pushed aside by a new ascent. If a solid decade of evidence isn’t enough, I’m not sure what is.
I will begin this important post with a quote from the movie Apollo 13:
That, better than anything else, summarizes the old Slope of Hope. It was built, piece by piece, step by step, with no particular plan in mind, over many years. It did its job well, but it lived well past its prime and, technologically, fell far behind the times. But it was a good ship.
I introduce you now to our new ship – the new Slope of Hope. This system was built new from the ground up. We started with a blank sheet of paper and blank hard drives and went from there.
The vast majority of improvements are invisible to the eye. I wanted to take this opportunity, however, to illustrate a few differences between the old and new Slope to get you acquainted with our new home. (more…)
About a week ago, tens of millions of thick printed election information guides were mailed to every household in California, including mine. I have no idea what it costs the state to create this thing, but I suspect something approaching a hundred million dollars. The purpose of these things is, ostensibly, for people to carefully study the propositions on the June ballot as well as the candidates for the various government posts (Federal Senator, California Governor, Treasurer, and so forth).
California is a famously progressive state, but thumbing through this book, I am always struck by some of the – – shall we say – – more fringe candidate that somehow have made their way into this publicly-funded publication. Here are a few………..
We begin with Jerry Laws, whose entire platform and campaign for the Senate can be expressed in merely a single word: (more…)
Anyone who has ever opened up a newspaper is all too familiar with the flowery language real estate agents will use to push their wares. Here in Palo Alto, with housing prices at historic highs, the thesaurus is in heavy use. Increasingly petite properties at ever-rising prices are becoming more difficult to perfume with prose.
This morning I stumbled across this beauty: