Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

S&P 500 Index: Poised for June Breakout?

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In my last post on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), I mentioned 2750 as major resistance and 2680 as near-term support.

Since then, price has bounced around in between those levels, as shown on the daily chart below. At the moment, those two levels are confirmed by a variety of intersecting trendlines…most notably the two red horizontal lines (2748 and 2685), which are the nearest to these two levels.

Until we see a clean break and hold either above or below this red consolidation zone, the SPX will continue its sometimes extreme, volatile whipsaw action in a trendless manner.

It’s unclear whether momentum favours a breakout to the upside, inasmuch as the last swing high on the momentum indicator was lower than its previous swing high, in a divergence with the last two swing highs made by the price. However, this may have been intentional and meant to be used as a possible “bear trap” in preparation for the resumption of the rally that began in early April. (more…)

Weakness and Strength

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Well, “BTFD” has worked for the 1,730th time in a row. It’s no surprise people believe in that simple strategy so much.

The market continues to be a mixed bag. Utilities, for example, my favorite index short, is still looking picture perfect from a moving averages perspective (which is all I am showing in this post). The crossovers are exactly what I want to see.

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Testing Double Top Support

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Interesting setup on SPX here as the holiday week begins. SPX is now testing the larger double top support that I was looking at last week and has broken slightly below double top support at the open. From here there are only two high probability options.

The first option is that SPX continues down towards the double top target in the 2661.50 area. A sustained break below 2690 from here likely seals that for the bears. The second option here is that the double top fails and rejects at the break. That’s what I would call a Janus bull flag setup, and the target would be a full retest of the May high at 2742.24. A strong break back over weekly pivot on SPX at 2723.65 likely seals this for the bulls, though by that stage SPX would be most of the way back to 2742.24 of course. As a general rule I’d expect to see one or the other target reached this week.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)

Mind The (Island Top) Gap

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I was concerned on Thursday that SPX would fail to do the obvious second leg down on the likely overall bull flag forming here, and in all likelihood SPX has now broken up from that bull flag. Confirmation that SPX is going up directly comes on a fill of the open island top gap from the mid-March high at 2752.01.

I’m leaning against another leg down here but if the bears are going to have (yet) another try at that, then first support is at the ES weekly pivot 2718.25 (same area on SPX), then a break of rising support from the mid-May low, now in the 2712 ES area. (more…)

The Ghost of 2017

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What is likely happening here is that SPX is doing an ABC retracement while forming a bull flag to go higher. Wave A was the first leg down and wave B was likely the rally into the lower high that we have seen so far. What we should see next is the C leg down below the wave A low, possibly extending as low as the daily middle band in the 2679 area, before the next leg up on SPX.

However last year that’s not the way this worked. The uptrend was so strong that every time the moment came for a second leg down, SPX broke up instead. That was the 2017 playbook and I’m not expecting to see that here, but it’s on my mind as a possibility.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)