Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Still Only 1 of 3 Macro Amigos to Destination

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It’s the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (in play since we began this goofy metaphor last fall), which would signal macro changes to come. When you are talking about the macro however, things move slowly and to date, only one of our riders has made it to his destination.

To review, they are Amigos 1-3, Chevy, Steve, and Martin.

  1. Stocks vs. Gold
  2. 10yr & 30yr Yields
  3. The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve

Below we’ll review a daily (short-term) and monthly (long-term) chart of each to check the status.

Amigo #1: Stocks vs. Gold

We noted Amigo #1’s eyes closed as stocks vs. gold took a big plunge in early February and again in March. This has actually set a lower highs, lower lows downtrend in 2018, and the swings have been very dynamic. Right now we are on an up swing and if you are a gold bug and this ratio rises above the March high please prepare to take caution, as the macro would be moving against you, at least relative to risk ‘on’ assets. But for now the lower highs and lower lows daily trend is intact. (more…)

Five Months Of Nothin’

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Good morning, Slopers, and greetings from oh-so-dark Palo Alto. My dogs gaze at me longingly for their walk, so I’ll just send this out and get the day rolling.

Before I begin, let me say a few of you prefer to jump right into the blog posts (a la the old Slope), so I have a suggestion: bookmark this URL as your Slope page: https://slopeofhope.com/page/slope-blog.html – and that’ll take you right to the blog with the most recent at top.

Looking at the ES, it’s interesting that over a period of five months, we have gone…………….nowhere. Sure, there’s been volatility (albeit ever-diminishing) and about a 350 point range, but just look at that arrow. With all the mayhem that’s been going on, the S&P was a little under 2700 in mid-December and it’s a little under 2700 right now. It’s getting dull again!

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Night Shift

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Good evening, everyone……….

Me and my fellas are hard at work (it’s been continuous since Friday) working on optimization, uptime, and reliability. I have probably accrued a dozen posts to write about the insanity we’ve been going through. It reminds me the old days at Prophet. You might as well put me in a trench with grenades going off around me, because that’s what it feels like, but I sure am glad to have my colleagues at my side. And we are making some GREAT strides this evening.

Out of the corner of one eye I’m watching the night time markets, and of profound interest to me is bonds, whose failed bullish breakout is mesmerizing. It’s not like there’s a dramatic plunge – about one third of a percent as I’m typing this – but an ultimate break of 141’13 on that horizontal would be spectacular to behold.

10-Year Yield: From A 35-Year Bear Market To A Generational Bull Market

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From Mike Paulenoff: In early March, 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years. The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor inflation data provide adequate justification for yield to be higher than it was two months ago. But there are times when the contradicting longer-term technical set-up should be heeded, even when the trend lacks strong support from lagging tabular data.

4 29 18 Monthly YIELD GIF

In scanning the past few months of U.S. economic data – such as Retail Sales, New Home Sales, Personal Spending, Consumer Prices, Non-farm Payrolls – what jumps out is the variability of the data. Most of these data series reflect a zig-zag pattern that belies a consistently strong directional economic impulse.

On April 27th, investors received their first look at the advance estimate of Q1, 2018 GDP, which came in at 2.3% compared with consensus estimates of 1.8% to 2.0%. More surprising, perhaps, was the subdued Q1 Price Index at 2.0% versus estimates of 2.4%, although the inflation gauge did remain at the Fed’s 2% target. (more…)

The Fed May Not Be Raising Rates In The Second Half Of 2018

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Written by Elliott Wave Trader: For those that have followed the long-term bond market, you have likely seen many analysts attempting to call the top to the market.  And, many have even tried multiple times.  However, through the years, bonds continued to chug higher and high.

On June 27th, 2016, we sent out a major alert to our members at Elliottwavetrader.net entitled “Beware of Bonds Blowing Up.”  Yes, we took our turn in attempting to call a top to the bond market.  But, a little over a week later, the bond market struck its highs.  Since that time, TLT has dropped almost 20%.

Since Xenia Taoubina began providing her bond analysis to our members at Elliottwavetrader.net two years ago, her view has been that TLT was going to strike a significant high in 2016, and set up a large decline off that high. That’s exactly what we saw, followed by a nearly two year long decline in the price of bonds (rise in yields). (more…)

SPX Drops Below Major Support As 10-Yr Yields Tags 3%

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I last wrote about the S&P 500 Index on April 19 and also included a couple of updates later that day.

I mentioned that its latest rally that tagged 2700 was weak and that the intraday action that day was hinting that it could be a pivot point where we’d see price either spike back up to 2700 or plunge down to 2650, or lower.

As at 1:30 pm ET today (Tuesday) the SPX has plunged below 2650 as the 10-Yr Treasury Yields tagged 3%, as shown on the following daily chart. (more…)

Next Bond Breakpoint

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I was a bit concerned on Friday night when Kim Jong Un announced peace and love for all humanity, but equities aren’t exactly blowing through the roof. In fact, the overnight session started with a big pop higher and was red on both the ES and NQ before the open. So as I speculated, it seems war is bullish and peace is bearish.

For now, however, as I’m typing this, ES and NQ are green again, with the S&P 500 up about one-third of a single percentage point. More important to me is bonds, which are down slightly (about one-fifth of a point……….yeah, not exactly a thrilling day here):

zbintra (more…)