Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits

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“The Harbinger of Doom”? Of course we (well, the media) are talking about the yield curve AKA Amigo #3 of our 3 happy-go-lucky riders of the macro. I have annoyed you repeatedly with this imagery in order to show that three important macro factors needed to finish riding before situation turns decidedly negative.

Amigo 1: SPX (or stocks in general)/Gold Ratio

Amigo 2: 30 Year Treasury Yield

Amigo 3: Yield Curve

In honor of Amigo 3’s arrival to prime time let’s have a good old fashioned Amigos update (going in reverse order) and see if we can annoy a few more people along the way. 🙂 (more…)

TLT-ing Lower

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Unrelated to anything else I’m about to say: the two biggest cultural influences of my life are (a) Star Trek, the original series and (b) Monty Python’s Flying Circus. I mention this because Netflix now has just about everything related to Monty Python you can imagine, including a wonderful documentary I’m watching now called Almost the Truth. If you are a MPFC fan and have Netflix, I encourage you to check it out.

On less funny subjects……..I am very pleased at how bonds are continuing to breakdown. It is precisely what I hoped would happen.

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Trump Bemoans Fed Rate Hikes and He’s Got a Point… Sort Of

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See…

Trump delivers another attack on Fed, calling central bank the biggest threat

Here is the entire article (blurb)…

President Donald Trump unleashed another attack on the Federal Reserve, calling the central bank his “biggest threat,” in an interview he gave to Fox Business Network. “My biggest threat is the Fed,” Trump said, according to excerpts released by the network ahead of an interview to air at 8 p.m. Eastern. “Because the Fed is raising rates too fast and it’s independent so I don’t speak to them but I’m not happy with what he’s doing because it’s going too fast because you looked at the last inflation numbers they are very low.” When pointed out to Trump that he nominated Jerome Powell instead of Janet Yellen, the president said he wasn’t blaming anyone. “I put him there and maybe it’s right maybe it’s wrong but I put him there.” He also referenced the other nominees to the Fed he’s made. “I put a couple of other people there I’m not so happy with too but for the most part I’m very happy with people.”

“Because the Fed is raising rates too fast…”

The 2 year note players in the bond market are and have been raising rates too fast if anybody is; and I don’t think they are. But Trump does have a point in that it appears the Fed is playing catch up on his watch after being way too slack on the previous administration’s watch (as I used to routinely bitch about). (more…)

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