Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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On this quiet holiday weekend, I thought I’d share a couple of very long-term charts (which PLUS users enjoy via SlopeCharts) Here’s the Dow 30 featuring Fibonacci retracements and a projection. As you can see, the projection has been exceeded (see inset); in the normal world, this is called a “failure”, but in the world of charting, it’s a “throwover.”
As I sit here on Halloween night (yes, this show was pre-recorded), waiting to dole out candy to the kids of the neighborhood, I thought I’d thumb through a few my-God-when-will-they-stop-climbing index charts. So here goes………
In the year since Trump was elected, the Dow has climbed nearly six THOUSAND points. What’s surprising is that not once has Trump ever mentioned the strength of equity markets during his tenure. He’s been too focused on the job at hand, and doing it superbly. And no matter what your political point of view, you’ve got to respect that.
Note from Tim: In case it isn’t screamingly obvious, I did not write this post.
Many will simply read the headline to this article, and use it as support for their belief in the market striking a multi-year top right now. I mean, aren’t headlines like this proof that the market is overheated?
Well, the answer is a definite “sometimes.” You see, back in 2015 and 2016 I was writing articles with headlines saying that we are going to target the 2500SPX region. And, if you thought that those headlines were portending the end of the bull market, then you were clearly wrong. So, consider, maybe this headline is prescient rather than a contrarian signal.
Based on what I saw during my visit last night, Disneyland’s newest ride is the Leap Over an Opioid Addict attraction just outside the park. They were all white males around thirty years old or so, sprawled out on the ground. At least it was more engaging than the boring Monsters Inc. ride inside the park itself.
But that’s not why we’re here. It’s a Sunday morning, and I’m out of posts (except for one waiting in the wings for the appropriate afternoon), so I’ll cobble one together. It isn’t easy, though. See, here’s what a normal market looks like:
Well, our fearless leader was at it again this morning:
Time once again for a review of the big picture, because… perspective. For example, in my mind I feel that training has been done to not expect a real whopper of an inflation trade. That was from the conditioning of the global deflationary force, post 2007. Yet the technicals for industrial metals are bullish for more upside, as you’ll see below.
Anyway, here are big picture monthly charts with limited word interference from me (and hence, not comprehensive analysis). It’s just for your own individual reflection if you’re even into this stuff like I am. (more…)
Another day, another SlopeCharts improvement. We have deepened the historical data for indexes and added a couple of new ones. Those of you who are Plus subscribers can, of course, fetch my own list of 36 indexes (and the mark-ups) via the Publish feature to which you have access (just look for my watch list cleverly titled “Indexes“). Here’s one new index, the Dow Jones Composite, which goes back to January 1966.
Looks to me like these manufacturers of killing machines are very lofty when viewed by way of these multi-decade long channels. Priced for perfection.
This is dumb, silly, and just for fun………
On Sunday night, I happened to stumble across some really old index data (yes, my friends, this is the kind of thing I do FOR FUN on a weekend). It was from the late 1700s up until 1900, and it was representative of the US stock market. This was before the days of even the Dow Industrials, of course, so I’m not sure what they cobbled together, but it was interesting data nonetheless. I made a simple line chart out of it: