Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Evolving Markets

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SPX didn’t retest the retracement low on Tuesday and that blew the best chance to do that in the next few days. The stats for today through Tuesday lean modestly bullish, and fairly strongly bullish on Wednesday and Thursday. This doesn’t mean that SPX has to close higher on all or indeed any of those days, but it does mean that the bulls have the wind at their backs on those days rather than trying to advance against it. The next day with a significantly bearish lean is July opex on Friday 15th July.

In the short term SPX gapped over the daily middle band yesterday and that was the first serious short term resistance. If we are to see a retest of the retracement low in the next few days, which is still possible, then the clearest indication for that would be a daily rejection candle today that rolled back yesterday’s candle entirely and delivered a clear close back below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 3630.


Far From Done

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There seems to be a growing consensus that the bear market is over. There will be a Fed “pivot”. There will be a surrender on Powell’s part. All the bad news is already “baked in.” As you might guess, I disagree. Here is a ratio chart. It is the RYT divided by the IEF. That is, the S&P equally-weighted technology fund (RYT) divided by the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond fund. Beautiful, isn’t it? And a long, long way from being done.