Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Macro Changes for Gold and Stocks

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Since early 2016 we have been carrying forward a theme illustrating that until the macro trends in place since 2011 change, the situation would be as is, stocks trending up and the precious metals in consolidation/correction. The current trends were kicked off symbolically, and functionally to a degree, by the Fed’s concoction of Operation Twist, a plan with the expressed goal of manipulating the macro (or in the Fed’s word, “sanitizing” inflation signals). Until this year it has been the gift that keeps on giving to unquestioningly bullish stock market participants.

We have also carried a theme forward that in order for a bull view to be widely recognized in gold, a bear view or at least a relative bear view will need to come about on the stock market, whether that means stocks rise nominally or not (ref. 2003-2007 when stocks rose nominally, but declined in terms of gold). (more…)

A Gold Sector Fundamental View

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goldpanningWith gold testing its 200 day moving average this morning I thought I’d reproduce the first part of the precious metals segment from week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 497), including a daily chart of gold at the end showing the anticipated SMA 200 test.

[edit] Steve Saville updates gold’s ‘true fundamentals’ here. Notice at the end what is not considered fundamentally material.

Precious Metals

We have done a lot of work delineating what the best investment environment would be for gold and especially the gold mining sector. The gold miners leverage (for better or worse) gold’s performance vs. cyclical items like stocks, commodities and materials. Gold vs. stocks is a macro fundamental indicator on investor confidence, or lack thereof. Gold vs. Energy and Materials are gold sector fundamentals directly informing a gold mining company’s bottom line performance (their product vs. mining cost inputs). (more…)

Time To Buy Gold As A ‘Safe Haven’

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From Avi Gilburt: For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the GLD as a proxy for gold. I believe that the GLD can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GLD. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.

I want to start this write-up to dispel the notion of the metals being a “safe haven,” as many in the media are now parroting. I have discussed this topic many times in the years I have been writing, but I just want to set everyone straight on this issue as it rears its ugly head yet again.

Every time the media sees the metals rally when the stock market declines, they begin to parrot the ridiculous claim that the metals are a safe haven for market volatility. Anyone who makes such a claim knows nothing of market history. If they did, they would not ever make such a claim.

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