Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

3 Metallic Amigos: Please Avert Your Eyes

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Better yet, don’t avert your eyes. You need to see this. The pictured Amigos seem of a different, more innocent time. See their wackiness. See them smile. See them full of life.

But each Amigo, especially Amigo Ag and Amigo Cu, look like they were bracing for something in this picture. Amigo Au is just charging forward, blissfully unaware, although he too has got some minor issues. The macro Amigos are in a chain that goes like this… Au → Ag → Cu. Counter-cyclical gold with limited industrial utility, semi-counter, semi-cyclical silver and completely cyclical copper.

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Gold Stocks: Peak Bleak?

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Peak Oil? That was an obvious and widespread promotion while it was in play and did not fool anyone who bothered to step aside from the herd that ran with it.

Peak Terror in broad stock markets? Well, that I don’t discount so readily because this is a system that was a debt-bloated accident waiting for the trigger that turned out to be COVID-19. Terrified casino patrons will pray that the Fed’s bullets are not duds because that is the only way out. That and the still-intact mass confidence in the Keynesian debt scheme that the Fed operates within.

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Gold Miners: Dismissing the Inflation Bugs

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Below is a monthly chart of HUI telling some stories of the past.

  • The 2003 to 2008 bull rally ended with Huey’s “crown of thorns” as I used to call it back then. An H&S that formed at the end of a great inflationary phase in the markets.
  • The great crash of 2008 (Armageddon ’08) was completely deserved because as I’ve belabored for so many years now, you don’t buy gold stocks in any heavy and/or long-term way during cyclical inflationary touts as gold barely keeps up with mining cost commodities and other assets/markets. The crash of Q4 ’08 cleaned out the inflation bugs and it did so with great cruelty and relentlessness. Only when every last bug who’d come aboard for the wrong reasons was exterminated did the bloodshed finally end.
  • So who turned and burned first out of the ’08 (deflationary) bottom? Gold and then the miners, that’s who. They led the whole raft of commodities and stocks, which finally bottomed in March of 2009. Then another massive inflation trade ensued, before blowing out in Q1 of 2011. Then? What I called “Mr. Fat Head” formed as the first drop found support at 375, the sector rammed upward on a QE tout, then failed, taking out 460 on the downside and we proclaimed that was that. Welcome to the bear market.
  • Then years of a bear crash and grind took HUI down to Mr. Fat Head’s measured target, which was around 100.
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It Was a Dive Bombing, Not a Carpet Bombing

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I went out in the afternoon with gold screaming upward on COVID-19 hysteria. I see something like that and I mentally prepare for the “volatility violence” we talked about in last weekend’s edition of NFTRH (#591).

Maybe some of you old hats like me remember the last bull market, from 2001 to 2008. Yes, of course you do. Massive attacks on gold were routine, and they seemed to come at highly sensitive times for another manipulated asset class, stocks. How on earth can you calm the herds down and tend them back into stocks if gold is flying around way up there signaling ‘all’s not well!’?

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