It has been strange watching the markets climb higher in this tremendously strong impulse at the same time as the Fed and others have been talking about a possible contraction in world GDP this year of 25% or more, by far the worst world contraction on record, in the shortest time. I noticed an analyst tweeting about a conversation he had with a four year old last week about the markets where the four year old was talking about just buying in the expectation that an even greater fool would buy the position at an even more absurdly higher price in the near future. That seemed surreal, but the markets look increasingly surreal at the moment.(more…)
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SPX made it to the 3100 area as expected, and a bit higher, and is now at the last big inflection point area before a retest of the all time highs. Why is this a big area? Well this is the last big fibonacci retracement level, and there are two significant high levels here, the first rally high after the all time high at 3136.72, and the November 2019 high at 3154.26 made on the move up to the all time high. A break over these levels is fine, but if 3154.26 is converted to support then that opens the way for a possible test of the all time high at 3393.52. That’s a real possibility now, but we should at least see a retracement from this area.
SPX daily chart:(more…)
I tweeted an excerpt from my premarket video on Thursday last week where I was talking about the ideal path for ES over the coming days and the plan was to see a high respecting a trendline then in the mid-3060s, seen on Thursday afternoon, then a retracement into the 3000 area, seen on Friday, and then a push into 3100 area for the middle of this week, currently in progress. With the historical stats for today and tomorrow both over 70% green on SPX, I’m thinking that level might be seen before the close tomorrow. We’ll see.
In the short term I have short term wedge resistance on the SPX 15min chart in the 3085-90 area, and that is the next obvious target.(more…)
SPX gapped up over 3000 this week and has been sustaining trade above it, with retracements. My working assumption is that SPX is on a path to reach my 3100 target area. So how is that looking on the SPX hourly chart?
Well I drew in two high quality possible rising wedge resistance trendlines on my SPX chart a couple of weeks ago and the first was resistance last week and then was gapped over at the weekend. I’m looking at the next one higher and if that was to be hit in the 3100 area, that would likely be towards the end of next week. There is already a possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal brewing but I’d expect SPX to need to go at least a bit higher to deliver a decently formed divergence. Main rising channel support is now in the 2900 area.(more…)