Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Tit for Tat

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During yesterday morning’s pointless run-up in valuations, I remarked how I wasn’t concerned, because the broader trend was with the bears. Likewise, with this morning’s smack-down, I’m not dancing on the table with glee, because it’s just another knee-jerk response to what now seems like a daly tit-for-tat response between China and the U.S. As I keep saying, it’s all about February 9’s lows. We need to break them and close beneath them to get cookin’.

saws (more…)

“Trade War”

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It has in the past been “the financial crisis”, “the Euro crisis”, “Greek debt”, “Italian banks”, “the fiscal cliff”, “Brexit” and so on. Every one of those events an extension of Keynesianism and its debt-leveraged monetary magic tricks. But now the buzz phrase is “trade war”, a different kind of animal.

The brewing trade war with China is different. With every damn one of the events noted above we here in the anti-hype environs of nftrh.com (and before it, biiwii.com) have tried to maintain perspective about why it was occurring (Thing 1, which we had anticipated in essence if not in the exact way it played out) or why they would not prove long-term bearish or bring on the end of the world (Things 2-6).  [Editor’s Note: at first glance, I thought this was a Biblical citation, until I realized there was not a book of Things, at least not in the King James Version to which I am accustomed. – Tim]

Indeed, we often note that inflammatory market events prove most often to be sentiment resets and buying opportunities as the herd pukes up its asset holdings. Keynesianism after all, has an elasticity to it despite its obvious and one day terminal faults. The elastic keeps stretching to this day. (more…)

Getting Our Arms Around the Big Issues

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Since everyone’s obsessed with the potential shutdown, let’s reflect a moment of the engines of government working right now. For instance – – although a $21 trillion debt and its suffocating interest is going utterly and completely ignored by every politician in the country………(and that doesn’t include unfunded liabilities):

debt

We here in California at least benefit from bold leadership on the big issues.

straws

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Who Feels the Sting

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Now that the massive new tax bill has passed, I thought I’d do a little experiment with a spreadsheet to see how a hypothetical Silicon Valley, California earner might be affected. I was sure his tax bill would be higher, but I am surprised at how much higher.I wouldn’t be surprised if some people decided not to stay in their homes since their tax bite is so substantial.

I will preface this by saying I’m not a tax expert, but I’ve got a pretty good understanding of taxes, and I put together a deliberately simplistic spreadsheet for this experiment. And while it may be simplistic, it still makes a powerful point, and the tiny amount of rounding error for an actual tax form won’t change the conclusion. (more…)

Boing!

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I cannot remember the last time I’ve grabbed my iPad from the side of my bed in the morning, fired up thinkorswim, and actually saw red on the screen. The ES and NQ are green. Every. Single. Day.

This morning, naturally, is not exception. Concerns about the let’s-finish-raping-the-poor tax travesty bubbled up yesterday, and the ES actually managed to fall a few points. Well, the chinless wonder won’t have any of that, so for no particular reason at all:

boing

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