Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Perspective on the Long-Term Gold CoT

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Because it’s so important to see this correctly and not pretend we (well, I) know more than we (I) actually do I find it important to look at pictorial representations of history and think about them when I get some quiet time (ha ha ha, like not on Twitter, not reading financial/gold websites and most certainly not watching TeeVee finance and news).

So I am thinking about the Commitments of Traders alignment with respect to the gold price once again. That would be the same CoT that has doggedly hung a poor risk vs. reward sign out over the sector from a sentiment standpoint since the summer.

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Mortar & Pestle

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I’ve been in the markets since 1987. I thought the market was strange in 1999. I thought it was odd in 2007. But nothing – – nothing! – – comes even close to what we’re going through now. It’s like I’ve met people who were 2’3″ and 1’9″ and then met someone who was four micrometers high. There’s no comparison.

And thus, we’ve seen volatility pounded and pounded and pounded until it is at 11. And why not? Even the most empty-headed simpleton realizes that the Federal Reserve is directly pushing the market up every day, and Dow 30,000 is clearly in their sights. It makes great press. So here’s the sad state of the VIX:

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The Crazy Train to Bull Eternity

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Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance as usual while feeling as though I’m playing a game of Musical Chairs while the music still plays (nothing nearly as good as Keith’s style, which has always resonated with me beyond most others).

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Closer to a Christmas Eve Close-Out Sale?

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The excerpt below is the brief Opening Notes segment from last Sunday’s NFTRH 579. We’ve been compelled by the market to obey the bullish trends and have a bullish view most intently since SPX went through the bull turnstile but really, well before that as it held the up trending SMA 200 in August and on another drop, again in September. The trends have been up all along and only broken trends would have made a broken market (I know, duh…).

Subsequent to #579’s bullish observation the market was tested this week on more trade war bullshit. And that’s of course what it is… financial media wax on/wax off to titillate or torment you with.

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Pre-Stuffing Fib Check

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Happy pre-Thanksgiving to Slopers. To be clear, today is a full trading day, and Friday is a shortened day, closing three hours before normal.

I wanted to thumb through a few big cash index charts. In most of these cases, they have blown right past their Fibonacci extension targets (thanks to Powell’s QE4). These extensions are based on major high/low anchor points, and are represented by horizontal lines. Here is the Dow Composite:

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