Sotheby’s and Bull Markets

By -

I read a very interesting article this week illustrating how bull manias were closely correlated with Sotheby's stock price (ticker symbol BID). The article quite convincingly illustrated that the late 80s takeover mania, the dot-com boom/bust, and the real estate/credit collapse all lined up nicely with auction insanity and record-high art prices.

The thrust of the article was that the present mania is located in China, where vases and paintings are fetching unheard-of bids. The implication, naturally, is that China is heading for a cliff. And, as past examples of have, Sotheby's can lose about a third of its value in one session when speculation in art ceases.

Below are the charts of the S&P (blue) and Sotheby's (black).

0407-bid

Dealing with Disaster

By -

Before I begin, I wanted to mention at the outset that we’re planning on taking the site down tonight for 20 minutes (hopefully!) as an important step in speeding up everything. The speed improvement won’t be done for about another week or so, but at 1:00 a.m. EST we’re going to be shutting things down, so please know this is planned. Now, on with the post…….

When I started the trading day on Monday morning, I was puzzled and startled by a rather large loss, because the ES and NQ were only up a little bit. It only took a moment or two for my eyes to land on the culprit:

(more…)