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I have been flopped on my hotel room bed, looking at hundreds of charts (what else would one do on a hotel bed?) I’m pretty excited about the week ahead. Let’s face it, Jerome Powell’s message on Wednesday is probably going to be the Last Big Event of 2018.
I’ve got a lot of great positions, but the biggest fish are the ones that got away. Here are some charts whose bearishness I trumpeted many times, but, frankly, I didn’t engage with. Maybe I lacked the patience, the testicular fortitude, or something else. They’re still fascinating to me:
I have been so impressed with the collapse of the small caps, I was curious to see what the ultra-short ETF (symbol TWM) was looking like. I’ve got to say, it’s impressive. Just look at the interplay between the prices and the moving averages, particularly the recent bounce off all three: it’s been a terribly reliable buy signal.
My family and I travel to a lot of towns across the country and abroad, and it’s quite eye-opening. I am presently in Cincinnati, and as is often the case, I ventured out to the nearest grocery store I could find in order to get some basics for the hotel room.
The best real grocery store was about half a mile away. It was a Kroger, which was a name I remember from my Louisiana childhood. I finally got there, and boy, what a shock. If you took the Palo Alto Whole Foods Market and inverted it, you would get the Cincinnati Kroger. I present to you below the entire produce section of the entire store.
One fun thing about the end of the year is all the “year in review” type articles that come out. One that just printed is from Barron’s, in which they show how their trading ideas did compared to the target. Here we are:
The bottom line is that the recommendations from the finest minds of Wall Street produced a loss of 2.2% as compared to a benchmark gain of 1.9% from the S&P 500. They describe these results as “so-so”, although I think readers may have more color language.
Of course, Slope has its only little comparison here, and I’m pleased to say that we’ve got a positive 26% spread versus the S&P. Or, even if you were wise enough to short the S&P at time these measurements began, you’d still be ahead by 7%. Take that, Barron’s!
Don’t let my Herculean physique fool you. I’ve never been an athlete. Not even once. In fact, I don’t even like perspiration. The only exercise I get is swimming, and that’s because I don’t have to deal with sweat, which I find sort of ewwww. So, yeah, I’m a man’s man.
My beloved children, however, are all top-notch fencers, and they tour internationally. We travel as a family, the gallant Knights and their swords, which on occasions like this pulls me somewhat away from my normal prolific nature.
SPX closed ten handles or so over the 5dma yesterday, so SPX is back on the Three Day Rule. If SPX should close back below the 5dma today or Monday then we should expect a retest of the last low at 2583.23 in the near future. At the moment the 5dma is at 2638 and SPX looks likely to close the day below it.
As it happens that would just confirm the bear flag rising wedge that has already broken down on ES with the same minimum target, so one way or the other that retest looks likely. At that point we could see the second low of a double bottom or continuation down towards the major support area below at 2530-40, the 2018 low and possible H&S neckline at 2532, and the annual pivot at 2538.
Our target for the first half of 2019 is and has been the 2100 to 2200 area for the S&P 500. A friend asked…
I’ve been meaning to ask (and possibly) know the answer, 2100-2200
for H1 2019 is your ultimate bear market target or opening act?
Opening act. It could be the ultimate target because there is a lot
of support at that area and a good solid bear phase could put the Fed on
ice and impose some changes to Donald Trump’s bull in a China shop