As I mentioned on my Twitter feed, some folks are going to get a little confused (and misled) by the NQ since there’s all this chatter about Netflix’s plunge and yet the NQ is bright green (at least as of this writing). What they’re missing is that, in the few minutes between the close of the regular session and the close of the GLOBEX, the NQ went plunge-a-roony. When the new “day” began, everything is zeroed out, of course, and so the gain they see on the NQ is merely a fractional recapture of the loss it had earlier (tinted below in yellow).
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It is understandable why people would be long Netflix going into earnings. (You can press Ctrl-E in SlopeCharts to see all historical earnings events). After all, NFLX reliably vaults higher every time they announce. This trend continued until……….it didn’t. As I said earlier, give me this same result with Amazon in 10 days, and this goose is cooked.
As I have no position at all in Netflix, I feel within my rights to respond to the stock getting the Kevin Spacey treatment after hours – har de har har har. Tee hee hee. Ho ho ho.
Between weakness in gold (which is nearing its 7th consecutive year of its own private bear market) and an oil market that’s down over 4% so far today, commodities continue to tumble away from their reversal pattern. I’m not expecting a hard fall, but things certainly seem poised to continue melting away for weeks to come.
Good morning, Slopers, and welcome to a new week. The earnings season is finally going to start ramping up, and of course there’s that Putin/Trump meeting happening, so it should be an interesting few days.
There aren’t exactly a lot of fireworks this morning, so let’s take a step back and look at a few basics. First, the bonds below remain completely intact for what I am hoping is a sea-change in the world of bonds and rates. The uptrend, having been broken, was challenging with a multi-week rally, but this mercifully seems to have been repelled where I’ve put the arrow. My only two options positions are substantial stakes in XLU and XLF January 2019 puts, and obviously the XLU is quite dependent on a strengthening interest rate market. My opinion is that we’ll see bond prices tumble away from this resistance point.
Over the past three months, from April 2 forward, the market has been bullying its way higher almost without respite. This can be seen, for instance, with the volatility index, which is being suffocated to death: