Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
Let’s take an in-day snapshot of gold vs. several key competitors (for your investment dollars/euros/yen, etc.) and check the progress in turning the macro from risk ‘on’ to risk ‘off’, cyclical to counter-cyclical.
Gold/Commodities motors along above the SMA 200. The move has been hysterical, and thus looks impulsive. That could mean something as we look back in hindsight one day.
I saw my portfolio swing from a fat profit to a medium-sized loss back to a small profit, all thanks to President Bonespurs trying to talk up the U.S./China relationship and attempts to put some kind of trade “deal” together. Let’s break down these talking points:
*TRUMP: CHINA WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL – of course they would! I’d like a deal too! I’d like to buy a new Ferrari! I don’t have to mention I’m willing to pay $1,000 for it. But I do want a deal.
*TRUMP: CHINA SENT LIST OF THINGS WILLING TO DO ON TRADE – so fucking what? “Here’s my list of demands!” Who cares?
*TRUMP: THINK WE WILL HAVE GREAT RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA – yeah, well, we DID.
*TRUMP SAYS MAY NOT HAVE TO DO MORE CHINESE TARIFFS – yeah, maybe! Maybe not! Could be! Or perhaps not!
*TRUMP: DON’T WANT TO PUT CHINA IN BAD POSITION – what else is he going to say in advance of discussions? That he WANTS them in a bad position?
*TRUMP: CHINA LIST PRETTY COMPLETE, FOUR OR FIVE THINGS LEFT OFF – no details at all. Just “pretty complete.” The sort of explanation a fifth grader might provide. (more…)
Two of my short ideas from my idea dump yesterday (or was it the day before?) included these purveyors of high-fat, high-salt, cheaply-made crap that Americans love to choke down. Cheesecake Factory (CAKE):
I’ll break with tradition and, gasp, offer up a long idea! FireEye (FEYE)
I’ve been pretty obsessed with the “diamond” pattern in the semiconductor index for many, many weeks (as my poor premium subscribers can attest). The NVDA news yesterday afternoon kind of clinches the whole thing. Semis will be an important driver today.
I noticed on a different site someone mentioned the fund SHE, the “gender diversity fund“, and I thought they were just doing a politically correct joke. Sort of a riff on all the virtue signaling going on these days. Nope. This is real. There is seriously a fund based only on having more women than usual in senior management positions. And as you can see below, comparing SHE to the male-dominated SPY, those women sure do make a gigantic difference in investment returns. I’m sure it makes the lack of liquidity and wider bid/ask spreads totally worth it.
On my last post I was talking about the expected significant backtest on SPX, and we have now seen that retracement which has reached the 61.8% fib retrace area. At this point I’m expecting the main rally into Xmas to start in the next couple of days and that may well be starting here. However ……..
I did mention in my last post that this retracement might extend lower into a full retest of the October low, and there is a possible setup to deliver that in this inflection point. That bear case rests on a decent quality H&S that has formed and broken down on ES with a target at that retest of the late October low, with a perfect backtest of the broken neckline in the 2717/8 area overnight. The original IHS on SPX looking for the 2910 has failed and this delivers a possible Janus Flag target at a retest of the prior low in the 2600 area. A sustained break below 2660 likely seals the deal for bears.
The bull case is that this is also what I would call a Janus Flag, in that it looks like a topping pattern that breaks down and rejects hard into the preceding high (2815 area). That case is backed up by the decent quality falling megaphone that has formed from the high and would obviously need some confirmation from breaks of upside resistance. The important upside levels on ES area possible double bottom support at 2718, and a sustained break above looks for the 2760 area. Falling megaphone resistance is in the 2730 area and a break above likely seals the deal for bulls. (more…)