View: 2 jan22.PNG

2 jan22.PNG

Bears have no idea at this point how the current situation is good for them.... and vice-versa for bulls! 

More to come

Comments

Holy Hand GrenadeHoly Hand Grenade
Please explain something to me, because I think this is important. Are you saying that the probability of a rate DECREASE in Dec. 2017 is growing, as demonstrated by the current probability (5.9%) increasing from yesterdays probability of 5.3% ?  
What exactly do you mean by "Just LOL" ? And please assume that I need a full and detailed explanation, don't just  
make jumps in your logic (for both my benefit and that of other readers). 
BTW, thank you for introducing me to this FedWatch tool.....I sense that you are on to something..... 1/22/17
Silver SingularitySilver Singularity
Ok, first thank you for asking and rating. 
 
The 5.9% is the probability of no rate hike (0.75) + the probability of a minimum rate cut (0.75 mius 0.25=0.50) 
They don't put the 0.25_0.50 range because nobody expect rate cuts so you can assume that the 5.9% totally includes a "no hikes during the year" (so the probability of "one minimum cut to 0.50" is 0%) 
You rightly observed that this probability has increased from 5.3 to 5.9 and I anticipate this number to grow to 100% or close to (in correlation with markets crashing) 
 
Just lol was because "markets" @ this point are saying (the fed makes them say) that the biggest probability for the year end is a rate between 1% and 1.25%. 
If it's not, then, the second biggest probabiliy is a rate of 1.25% to 1.50% (lol). 
If it's not, then, etc... 
 
Hope my english is understandable, I'm French and I do my best. 
I'll answer the best I can @ your questions, I'm glad to do it so don't hesitate 1/22/17
Holy Hand GrenadeHoly Hand Grenade
Franchement c'est trop bien cette page du Fed. Je le suiverai! Merci! 1/22/17
Silver SingularitySilver Singularity
Tu parles plutôt bien le Français :) 1/23/17
Holy Hand GrenadeHoly Hand Grenade
It just increased to 7.4%..... 1/23/17
Silver SingularitySilver Singularity
lol 1/23/17
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