Added call as hedge - dip but no risk to upside
Break even is 129, get out if crosses 131 strike.
Can also be done with /RTY futures to avoid overnight risk
Small movements do not hurt the trade- only movements over 7% to the downside do, and you can hedge if in a futures position overnight before exiting in the morning
94% chance of being higher than 129 before oct 20
The trade does not look like it really starts paying off well until IWM is in excess of 155? Is this correct?
If above 129 or so it will be profitable. Would get out no later than oct 11. Profit range realistically is about 1000-2000 unless goes up to 142-146 range and profit will be smaller (c $300-500)
The combination of butterfly and calendar spreads in the 1 std deviation zone is really powerful.. need to tinker with the models some more