British Pound - Monthly - 6.9.16.png
British pound - monthly chart. This is not investment advice.
I like the way you are thinking
I think Brexit would more likely bring about the bottom. Market thinks Brexit is bad for pound, but euro is probably done, along with EU, if Britain walks away.
Britain money supply groth is less than US money supply groth resent years. I am bullish on pound.
I'm bullish on the pound too, but not before we get one final swoosh down for a final shakeout, preferably after the Brexit vote (they will vote to stay in the EU; I am 99.99% certain of that).
The news is trying to blame the market correction on Brexit. Does no one else think that is the dumbest thing the media has ever said in the history of financial media? Even if they leave the EU, which they won't, it absolutely would not matter for US equities. Ridiculous.
I think that if Brexit happens it would be positive for US equities and bonds primarily because everyone has been programmed to think that Brexit is bad when it isn't. From what I understand thus far Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales are pro EU. England is split roughly 50/50 with a slight bias towards Brexit. If you look at the respective populations you could probably work out what the result is going to be.
Ok. I've done the math. I think that the final vote will probably be 57% in favor of staying in the EU and despite the polls which are predicting that Brexit is in the lead. I also think that it is a mistake for the people of the UK to not vote for Brexit. But since I'm not voting it's none of my business.
I don't think Brexit happens, but if it did, I would agree with you that after the initial dip, the markets would rise as shorts cover en masse.
@Honeybee: I completely agree with you that they SHOULD leave the EU, but they won't. And by "they", I mean the powers that be won't let a Brexit vote happen. Call me a conspiracy-theorist, but the powers-that-be will do anything, even voter fraud, to ensure a vote to remain in the EU. Same with Greece and their votes last year for their bank bailout. I predicted there was no way they would allow a "no" vote, despite what any polls said, and that's exactly what happened. "They" can't allow a vote like that. Same with UK, they can't allow a vote to leave, even though I fully agree with you that they should and it is in their best interest to leave.
Let's also not forget the Scottish Independence Referendum back in 2014. Same concept, the powers that be wouldn't allow a vote for independence and my prediction is that any time you see votes like this in the future, whether it be for a country to leave the EU or for something else "major", the vote will be in favor of the status quo.
I took my zimmer frame to a Status Quo concert once. Had to leave quickly because the music hurt my ears. They also have some hardcore fans that push you around so that they can get to the front. The status quo definitely sucks. We all could do with some change.