Browse Stacks: Government: Europe: Blanks of the trader
Blanks of the trader
With such a volatile start of the year across FX space there seem to be new challenges facing traders at least for the short term future. After unprecented volatility seen around CHF, shorter term positions in this currency become unfavorable due to huge markup spread that majority of brokers imply for CHF pairs. Unless traders can stomach significant stops in their CHF positions it is good idea to stay away from trading CHF short-term. Another huge story on the horizon is ECB finally announced QE program that will kick in in March with total size of 1.1TR EUR. This sent EUR pairs much lower and this is likely not to be the end of the fall due to the fact that anti-EU Syriza party is likely to win parliament elections in Greece. Having parity for EUR/USD pair at some point in 2016 seem to be reasonable projection. FOMC meeting on Wednesday anticipation is muted at the moment, however surprises are not unlikely having in mind events of recent weeks.Looking at currency board below majority of pairs pointing to technical weakness of GBP for the coming week, for the traders taking this approach good idea take it as binary event and adjust their risk positions on GBP accordingly.
Weekly Currency BoardWeekly
EURGBP ▲
GBPCAD ▼
GBPNZD ▼
GBPJPY ▼
GBPUSD ▼
JPY
Bullish
Short GBP/JPY
AUD
Neutral
No Positions
CAD
Bullish
Short GBP/CAD
CHF
Bullish
Not tradable due to spread
EUR
Bullish
Long EUR/GBP
GBP
Bearish
Shorts GBP/CAD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD; Long EUR/GBP
NZD
Bullish
Short GBP/NZD
USD
Bullish
Short GBP/USD
UK preliminary GDP QoQ (Q4), 9:30am: Expectations are for a slowdown to 0.60% from 0.70%. Also released are the year-on-year figures which are expected to show an increase to 2.9% from 0.70%. Market to watch: FTSE 100 and GBP/USD
US core durable goods orders MoM (December), 1:30pm: Expectations are for a rebound to 0.6% from -0.70% previously. Non-core durable goods are expected to show a pick up to 0.50% from -0.90% also. Market to watch: S&P500 Dow Jones GBP/USD EUR/USD and USD/JPY
US CB consumer confidence (December), 3pm: Market expectations are for a pick up to 95 from its previous level of 92.6 month on month. Market to watch: S&P500 Dow Jones GBP/USD EUR/USD and USD/JPY
Wednesday 28 January Australian CPI QoQ (Q4), 12:30am: Forecast to post a slowdown to 0.30% from 0.50%. Market to watch: ASX AUD/USD and AUD/JPYGermany GfK German consumer climate (December), German retail sales MoM (December), 7am: Expected to show a mild pick-up to 9.1 from its previous level of 9.1 month on month. Retail sales are expected to show a rise of 0.71% down from its previous level of 1.0% Market to watch: DAX EUR/USD EUR/GBP
US FOMC statement/federal funds rate (January), 7pm: Expectations are for the funds rate to be left unchanged at 0.25%. Market to watch: S&P500 Dow Jones GBP/USD EUR/USD and USD/JPY
New Zealand RBNZ rate statement/interest rate announcement (January), 8pm: Expectations are for interest rates to be left unchanged at 3.50%; however, markets will be awaiting some directional bias regarding a possible cut in rates owing to slowing commodity prices. Market to watch: NZD/USD and NZD/JPY
Thursday29 January German unemployment rate (December), 8:55am: Expectations are for an unchanged level of 6.50%. Market to watch: DAX EUR/USD EUR/GBPUS initial jobless claims (January), 1:30pm: Expectations are for an additional 294k, down from its previous; 307k. Market to watch: S&P500 Dow Jones GBP/USD EUR/USD and USD/JPY
Japanese Tokyo core CPI YoY (December), 11:30pm: Expectations are for a slowdown to 2.20% from its previous level of 2.30%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY
Japanese retail sales YoY (December), 11:50pm: Expectations are for a move higher to 0.9% from 0.4%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY
Friday 30 January UK mortgage approvals (December), 10am: Expectations are for a flat reading of 59.0k. Market to watch: FTSE 100 and GBP/USDEU CPI flash estimate YoY unemployment (December), 10am: Expectations are for -0.5%, down from its previous level of -0.20%.The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 11:50%. Market to watch: Major EU indices EUR/USD EUR/GBP
US advance GDP QoQ (Q4), 1:30pm: Expectations are for a slowdown to 3.2% from its previous level of 5.0%.
Chicago PMI (December), 2:45pm: Expectations are for a mild slowdown to 58 from 58.3 month on month. Market to watch: S&P500 Dow Jones GBP/USD EUR/USD and USD/JPY
EUR/GBPThis setup is purely technical play on EUR bounce. Will be aproaching this setup with increased caution, as current fundamentals are extremely bearish on EUR, it is good idea to look for signs of reversal on lower time frames before entering this long position.
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