View: NUGT what next.sc.png

NUGT what next.sc.png

Here is a continuation of the NUGT page I posted 7/16 with a “redo” on 7/18. This did play out like an inverse H&S as I had hoped. I personally was stopped out the next morning 7/19 but got back in at 5.90 when it started to go back up. I then sold my shares for an average price of 7.90 for a 33% gain in two days which I was very happy with. I sure hope some of you that happened to look at this formation also benefited.  
If you look at my earlier long term charts for silver you will see that I think there is a good chance we are going to have a major sideways action in gold and silver over the next year or two before a final swoop to a new high in both metals. IF correct we are now in up phase to retest the previous recent highs in both metals over the next few months which will likely fail. I am assuming the recent lows in both silver and gold will hold. (Huge assumption that I believe TK doesn’t agree with being the natural bear he is).  
On the immediate trading front for GDX and NUGT I am watc

NUGT what next.sc.png
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TombTomb
On the immediate trading front for GDX and NUGT I am watching for two possible formations. Bullish option1 is another almost immediate drop down to retest the recent lows. Should this hold it forms a good base for a fairly vigorous bounce up. See chart. I favor this kind of pattern for silver (SLV, AGQ, or USLV). The second bullish option I see is a sideways pattern for the next few days such as a triangle leading to another bounce up. There are a lot of assumptions in all this but I will stick with it till the market tells me otherwise. So for me I will be looking to accumulate my NUGT and USLV shares.  
Obviously this is just my current guess of what will happen based on how I see the patterns and indicators I follow. It is not a recommendation for any trade. That is up to you. However I hope this can somehow be helpful to you. Have a great week. Tom B 7/27/13
yazzeryazzer
makes sense...but I have been steering clear of the PMs lately - we're at an inflection point that could go either way - want to see a clear continuation of the downtrend or a firm change to an uptrend before I make any moves there. 7/27/13
yazzeryazzer
plus, don't you find TA on the 3X ETFs a little skewed?. The bias will always be down in the long run...and the fact that there even is a "bias" makes TA tenuous at best on the leveraged ETFs (esp. the 3X ones), no? 7/27/13
Coe CourierCoe Courier
Thanks for sharing. Personally, i find identifying major bottoms easier than picking major tops, therefore my interest in gold and gold stocks.  
Your short term chart pretty much captures the possibilities. On friday i too saw a potential triangle forming. In addition to your outcome its also possible the triangle is much closer to completion {Say complete by Monday a.m }. At least its another possible outcome. 7/28/13
TombTomb
I appreciate greatly the great feedback. Yazzer I think you are correct and you should make your TA decisions only on the 1X charts. eg for gold minors on the GDX not the NUGT esp if Fibonacci ratios are important to your approach as they are distorted with the leveraged ETFs. If the 1x goes to .62x. retraction then often the 2 or 3x will go to .78 or .84 retraction. Coe Courier thank you too. I also see the possibility in gold to immediately go up but seems less likely. Sill I have maintained some position in NUGT just in case. I looked briefly at your postings and it looks like you are short term looking for oil to go down some. Interesting as I see the $WTIC possibly going to the 80-90 range over the next few weeks and have taken a position in DWTI for hopefully short term gain. Long term I don't have a strong feel with what will happen with WTIC. Take care. Have a great week. Tom 7/28/13
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Tomb
  • By: Tomb
  • On: 7/27/13 6:35AM

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