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slopechart_/ES.jpg

On topic with the retracement theme... 

Ooops: Part 1 

I like charts. That doesn't mean mine are worth a dookie. Self-taught. Well, I have found a few mentors along the way via the internet. 

This is a shared fuck up, mostly so I remember but maybe somebody else can skip a step. 

I drew this channel on a few indices back in early April after it appeared our little counter trend rally had expired. A channel which appears to have been broken to the downside. 

Log scale/daily for reference. Linear does put today's close right at the underside of said channel, but I don't regard that as a huge difference. You can try that little experiment on your own at any rate...

Image added via SlopeCharts
slopechart_/ES.jpg

Comments

GonnabesickGonnabesick
This was not wrong. Often it will hold. However, you also need to be aware of: (1) the measured move targets from those topping formations; and, (2) the channel often steepens to match the recent channel trend lines (blue). 
 
Note, too, that trending moves often reach to the next trading range (marked hoizontal.) Of course, there's the really big one from the year 2000 top to the year 2009 bottom (not shown.)
5/12/22
sandunessandunes
Thanks for the input. 
 
Also I don't think I have ever had to try and slap channels or anything else on a legitimate bear market... 5/12/22
Mr. WizardMr. Wizard
My two cents: 
I usually eyeball lines, or draw them with crayons. ie very wide. 
I also try drawing lines at closing prices, or using intraday wick ends. Whichever works. 
Yes, it's easy to keep revising until you get something you like, as opposed to something that helps you navigate a tough market. But eventually a line has to be violated. 
 
Wish I had time to do a study of context - how many previous markets had drops like these, extended, and with few retracements. Is this move an outlier, or pretty typical? Maybe this weekend. 5/12/22
GonnabesickGonnabesick
Measured move targets are mostly channel-width moves, which is why I only use the 0 - .5 - 1 (or 0 - 1 - 2) measures anymore. I don't bother with other fibs. Trying to keep it simple... 
 
Notice where Half Way Back from the 2020 low is on this Weekly chart. Also, I should have noted the Jan 2018 to Mar 2020 range (shown here). 
 
And note, too, the Monthly lower-BB level vis the other target levels/ranges from above. 
5/12/22
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