Browse Symbol Stacks: $USD: $USD 9.15.13sc.png

$USD 9.15.13sc.png

The pattern of the US dollar ($USD) has been confusing to me for quite a while but in looking at it this morning it really looks now like a classic 5 wave triangle. This often occurs after large major moves up or down. Most often when the triangle is complete there is another quick moving action in the same direction the equity was moving in before the triangle started. In this case it implies the next major move in the dollar is down. The target from the triangle would be around 63. 
Many other equities of course are influenced by the value of the dollar. Correlations of course are not perfect. On this chart I am suggesting the possible moves of oil, metals, and bonds. I have previously put up charts of TLT and $SILVER which for other technical reasons lead me to believe the next major move in these two is up. I have no suggestion for what this will do major stock indices. Notice since 4/2011 the SPX has been going up while the dollar is rising unlike earlier years. It seems possible to me that a rapi

Comments

TombTomb
The pattern of the US dollar ($USD) has been confusing to me for quite a while but in looking at it this morning it really looks now like a classic 5 wave triangle. This often occurs after large major moves up or down. Most often when the triangle is complete there is another quick moving action in the same direction the equity was moving in before the triangle started. In this case it implies the next major move in the dollar is down. The target from the triangle would be around 63. 
Many other equities of course are influenced by the value of the dollar. Correlations of course are not perfect. On this chart I am suggesting the possible moves of oil, metals, and bonds. I have previously put up charts of TLT and $SILVER which for other technical reasons lead me to believe the next major move in these two is up. I have no suggestion for what this will do major stock indices. Notice since 4/2011 the SPX has been going up while the dollar is rising unlike earlier years. It seems possible to me that a rapidly falling dollar could possibly lead to great fear and start a big selloff but I really have no idea. Like always we just have to patiently wait and see.  
Hope this in some way is helpful to you. Have a happy and productive week trading. Tom 9/15/13
market Timmarket Tim
why all charts on Slope of Hope resolve to downside? How about multi-year bottoming? 9/15/13
Brian RipleyBrian Ripley
I agree. I don't understand the argument of why the $USD wants to plunge when from what I understand, most of the debt that has been created in the greatest credit boom ever has been debt that is denominated in US$ (see Bob Hoye etal). Doesn't that mean there is still a lot of demand for US$ especially as debt comes due and over leveraged positions have to be vacated to raise US$ to repay that debt? My little chart http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/09/inflation-not-hyper.html suggests that the US$ has been in an uptrend since 2012 relative to the CAD$ and also relative to Gold ($USD:$GOLD). And U.S. wages seem to be benefiting as well during the same time period. Also, the US as an issuer of its own currency with its debt denominated in its own currency cannot ever run out of "money". The only constraint is inflation (see Cullen Roche, pragcap.com) and inflation, which is why I riffed on the 200 years of inflation chart, is still very much benign. 9/15/13
TombTomb
I appreciate the comments. But I feel a like the weather broadcaster who folks dislike because he tells them there is bad weather ahead. I didn't create the triangle, that is just the way I see it. If I am correct then likely the dollar will fall. Of course no pattern "works" all the time. 9/16/13
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