Users: Moak: 2018_03_30_Weekly_Indices.JPG

2018_03_30_Weekly_Indices.JPG

Hesitation ...

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MoakMoak
Bull case: 
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Strong monthly bull trend, with no clear top just yet. 
Two legs of a correction. 
Support (e.g. 2600 on SPY.) 
Failure of bears to follow through from last week: they lack conviction / became exhausted. 
Big bull bars last week in European and Japanese indices. 
 
 
Bear case: 
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Big damage to bull trend. 
No obvious bottom in second leg down. 
Bulls lacked conviction on Thursday: sold out of longs at end of day. 
=> Weak buy signal bars in US indices (tails on top.) 
Only scalping taking place in European and Japanese indices: big up 
one week, big down a week or two after. 
Targets below. 
Small caps in middle of big range. 
Nasdaq looks especially weak (but at minor trend line.) 
 
 
"Tedium/hesitation" case: 
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Small sideways bars next week. 
(Small bull bars closing on their highs would make buy signals. 
Small bear bars closing on their lows would suggest more down.) 
 
 
Pain case: 
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Head fake up (failed breakout), sucking in bulls for trend resumption. 
Dump down to support, then set up reversal. 4/1/18
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