Bull case: ------------------ Strong monthly bull trend, with no clear top just yet. Two legs of a correction. Support (e.g. 2600 on SPY.) Failure of bears to follow through from last week: they lack conviction / became exhausted. Big bull bars last week in European and Japanese indices.
Bear case: -------------------- Big damage to bull trend. No obvious bottom in second leg down. Bulls lacked conviction on Thursday: sold out of longs at end of day. => Weak buy signal bars in US indices (tails on top.) Only scalping taking place in European and Japanese indices: big up one week, big down a week or two after. Targets below. Small caps in middle of big range. Nasdaq looks especially weak (but at minor trend line.)
"Tedium/hesitation" case: ------------------------------ Small sideways bars next week. (Small bull bars closing on their highs would make buy signals. Small bear bars closing on their lows would suggest more down.)
Pain case: --------------- Head fake up (failed breakout), sucking in bulls for trend resumption. Dump down to support, then set up reversal. 4/1/18
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Strong monthly bull trend, with no clear top just yet.
Two legs of a correction.
Support (e.g. 2600 on SPY.)
Failure of bears to follow through from last week: they lack conviction / became exhausted.
Big bull bars last week in European and Japanese indices.
Bear case:
--------------------
Big damage to bull trend.
No obvious bottom in second leg down.
Bulls lacked conviction on Thursday: sold out of longs at end of day.
=> Weak buy signal bars in US indices (tails on top.)
Only scalping taking place in European and Japanese indices: big up
one week, big down a week or two after.
Targets below.
Small caps in middle of big range.
Nasdaq looks especially weak (but at minor trend line.)
"Tedium/hesitation" case:
------------------------------
Small sideways bars next week.
(Small bull bars closing on their highs would make buy signals.
Small bear bars closing on their lows would suggest more down.)
Pain case:
---------------
Head fake up (failed breakout), sucking in bulls for trend resumption.
Dump down to support, then set up reversal. 4/1/18