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The magnitude of the moves last week was relatively muted in relation to previous couple of weeks. Traders backing NZD strength were able to bank some profit last week as well as JPY strength was reasonable play as well. Looking ahead for the coming week opportunities seem to be limited from Strength/Weakness prospective. JPY is pointing to additional strength, while AUD and EUR are likely to weaken. 

Weekly Currency Board






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Prime Risk Events (UTC time)  Monday13 October China Trade Balance (Sept), tentative: China imports were surprisingly weak in August, helping the trade surplus to a record high of $49.8 billion. This is expected to fall to $41.05 billion in September. Market to watch: FTSE 100 China A50 Hong Kong HS50 USD/JPY

Bank Holiday in US, Canada and Japan

Tuesday14 October UK CPI (September), 9.30am: Both the year-on-year and month-on-month figures are expected to slip further to 1.4% and 0.2% respectively, well below the 2% Bank of England mandate. Market to watch: GBP/USD EUR/USD FTSE 100, FTSE 250

German ZEW economic sentiment (Sept), 10.00am: In September, the index fell for a ninth consecutive month to 6.9 points. Given the fall in exports and industrial production in Germany adding to fears of imminent technical recession, investor expectations are not slated to improve. May fall closer to zero. Market to watch: Euro crosses, DAX EuroStoxx600

Eurozone industrial production (Sept), 10.00am: Likely to show a sluggish economy. A better-than-expected-increase of 1% was recorded last month. A decline of 1.6% is expected now. Market to watch: EUR/USD EUR/GBP European indices

Wednesday15 October China CPI (Sept ), 2.30am: This data point came in lower than expected last time, at a four-month lowwell below the government target of 3.5%Expectations are for a print of 1.7% year on year now as producer price deflation deepens. Market to watch: Oil USD/JPY China A50 [indices:HS50|Hong Kong HS50]

UK unemployment, claimant count and Average earnings index (Sept), time: 9.30am: The claimant count is forecast to fall to 35,000 from last month’s 37,200. Unemployment is expected to decline further to 6.1% while the average weekly earnings index is expected to show an increase of 0.7%. Market to watch: Sterling crosses, FTSE 100

US retail sales (Sept), time: 1.30pm: Advance retail sales were a better-than-expected 0.6% in August. A decline of 0.2% is expected now. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, 7pm: The most recent showed the US economy growing steadily and more optimistic businesses with tame inflation. Markets will be interested to note how the global growth picture will impact this time Market to watch: USD crosses, Dow Jones S&P 500

Thursday16 October Eurozone final CPI (Sept), 10.00am: A small increase of 0.4% on the month-on-month figure is expected. The yearly figure is expected to remain at the exceptionally low 0.3%. Market to watch: Euro crosses, DAX CAC

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm:  This number was below expectations last week, with just 287,000 against the 291,000 expected. Any number below the 300,000 marker will be deemed positive. Market to watch: USD crosses, Dow Jones S&P 500

US industrial production (Sept), time: 2.15pm: Having slipped by 0.1% last month, markets are expecting a small gain of 0.4% in September. Market to watch: USD crosses, Dow Jones S&P 500 oil

Philadelphia Fed business outlook (Oct), time: 3.00pm: Deteriorating to a three-month low in September and falling to 22.5 from August’s 28.0. A further drop is expected now to 20.0. Market to watch: USD crosses, Dow Jones S&P 500 oil

NAHB housing market index (Oct), time: 3.00pm:  A nine-year high was established here last month as homebuilder confidence improved. Up to 59 from 55.0 in August, the index is expected to remain flat in October Market to watch: USD crosses, Dow Jones

Friday17 October US building permits and housing starts (Sept), 1.30pm: A small increase in permits to 1,035,000 versus last month’s 1,003,000 is the forecast here, housing starts is expected to improve on the month. A breach of the 1 million mark is expected. Market to watch: Dow Jones dollar crosses S&P 500

US University of Michigan consumer confidence (Oct, preliminary), 2.55pm: A small decrease to 84.2 from last month’s print of 84.6 is expected this month. Market to watch: US indices dollar crosses


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