View: 2012-07-30 DJIA Secular Bear Market Cycles -1896-1950 Weekly.png

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In April of this year the DJIA was ~105% off its March 2009 lows. Further, the rally at that point was ~3 years in length. 

As the chart shows, the current cyclical bull is very long in the tooth in terms of both magnitude and duration compared to the 1896-1950 period, a period which is similar to the past 12 years. 

Both periods are characterized by high volatility, crises and where the "norms" were ~90-100% cyclical rallies followed by ~45-50% cyclical bear markets. 

The largest cyclical rally in the 1896-1950 period, ex the 1921-1929 bubble was ~135%, which using the low on the SPX of 672 in March 2009 would imply 1,580 if this currenty cyclical rally were to test the ultimate threshold of history...