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:
Analytics
: Divergences
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US equities look expensive again while bond yields are near their long-term average.
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mwilson spx_0.jpg (1280×628)
fed funds vs 10y_1.jpg (1126×658)
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slopechart_DIA,QQQ.jpg
Big Tech and Industrials going separate ways, just like late 1999
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US stocks vs Europe.jpg (722×532)
The US has never been so overhyped, relative to the rest of the world, and which can be visualized in the followin...
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The basket of magnificent 7 stocks are up +50%, compared to the S&P up +28%, and the rest up +20%.
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Massive reversal higher in the AAII bull-bear spread.
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the biggest US companies have outperformed the index for good reason – they have generated much stronger profit growth
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one should NOT try to time the markets, as missing the ten BEST days is a serious drag on returns (gray line).
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slopechart_SPY,RSP.jpg
started to diverge May '23
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Utilities vs bonds
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Jesus........US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
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"Fair value" of the S&P is 3,126
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Very interesting times to say the least
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Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
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French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
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Both can't be right, can't see how it would be possible!
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And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
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May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
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The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
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The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
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The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
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Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
household vs establishment dec 2022 delta.jpg (1280×754)
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US pump prices have tumbled now for 34 straight days, President Biden's approval rating has just collapsed to a ne...
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slopechart_$BTC.jpg
My first go at technical analysis on a wide time horizon for Bitcoin. Fun trying to pick out different features, I...
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slopechart_TZA.jpg
TZA has volume and price movement synced up again.
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And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer...
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VIX rose modestly today but equity risk remains massively under-priced relative to credit risk...
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Diverging volume for the first time since the RUT bear began. This is likely another indication that a rally is ab...
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Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
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But have more pain to go is they are to catch down to the yield curve's reality...
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nasdaq vs 200dma dec 14.jpg (1271×655)
Barely 40% of the Nasdaq's 3,000+ stocks were trading above their 200 day moving average.
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Y/Y CPI Inflation Versus 10-Year UST Yield, 1982-2021
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Inflation beating wage growth
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This is an amazing chart - what a divergence!! Kind of says it all........
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Finally, you have to laugh really that stocks are surging back towards record highs on a day when consumer sentime...
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QE ain't f**king doing anything for the real economy...
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As noted, there is a large divergence between “price” and the“advance-decline volume,” with the “advance-de...
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Most recently, in early 2020, credit sniffed out issues while stocks just ignored the fact that a global pandemic...
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The US high yield credit market is trading at its weakest since March (despite stocks hitting record highs)...
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What $1 invested in gold vs. bitcoin a dozen years ago is worth today
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Inflation-Adjusted NASDAQ 100 Versus Real GDP, 1995-2021
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Real Hourly Wages Versus Unit Labor Costs, 1972-1995
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Real GDP Growth Versus Fed Balance Sheet Growth, 1951-1962
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big 4 loans deposits q2 2021.jpg (1228×589)
There has been no loan growth in the US since the global financial crisis, while total deposits have doubled!
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House Prices Versus Index Of Average Weekly Earning, 1998-2021
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Total US Public And Private Debt Outstanding Versus Nominal GDP, 1970-2021
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Fed Balance Sheet Versus Nominal GDP, 2003-2021
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slopechart_$BTC,$SPX.jpg
Bitcoin and S and P 500, Covid Crash to Covid Bubble? If you are in the camp that believes crypto leads equitie...
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fredgraph.png (800×820)
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JPM total loans and deposits.jpg (1251×629)
JPM hoarding all the cash. How about that.
div yields vs tsy yield_0.jpg (1245×668)
Because that yield on the 10Y is decisively above the S&P's dividend yield, and where according to BofA “there i...
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