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A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
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The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Gold/Copper ratio, monthly chart
Risk is on copper's side vs. gold. Risk is also against the inflated cyclical macro.
slopechart_BILL.jpg
Beautiful
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Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
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Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
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The GS "Risk Appetite Indicator" is breaking out to levels not seen in close to 2 years.
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GDX Golden Cross: a price paid | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Golden Cross in gold stocks resolves EXACTLY as it should have. Same goes in reverse for Death Cross. Also, it's n...
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NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
Philly Fed manufacturing survey for december
Philly Fed has decline to the pleasant 'Goldilocks' zone, conveniently during the Q4-Q1 market relief seasonal pha...
Gold vs. stock markets, commodities and inflation expectations
Gold is... Beuller?
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u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)
Forget the hawking Fed, when the 2yr yield rolls over and does its thing to the yield curve, you'd better be ready...
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m2 money supply
If you are a stock market bull AND you believe there is a correlation between M2 and the SM, you may see the extre...
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household vs establishment dec 2022 delta.jpg (1280×754)
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slopechart_JOE.jpg
50/100 MA Cross. Seems a decent chart.
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Released negative outlook ahead of earnings, bummer on playing this for earnings
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Curious if it can survive?
Negative EPS, no meat to the bone
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slopechart_ITB.jpg
Getting close to the trend line
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Americans' Consumer Sentiment Slumps As 'Current Conditions' Crash To 18-Month Lows
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IWZM Dark pool at EOD highs
VolumeLeaders.com
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VIX.jpg
$VIX chart from FAIRLEAD STRATEGIES
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-fear-gauge-is-flashing-a-warnin...
Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/ES not looking good for stocks or the cyclical market view. Not good at all.
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Lots of room to the downside
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.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Gold vs. Inflation Expectations has popped above the SMA 50. If you're a gold bug and want to see a solid rally in...
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
CME Group now up to nearly 73% forecast of +.75% on Nov. 2nd.
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.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Inflation expectations continue to fade.
Does the Copper/Gold ratio look good to you? – Notes From the...
Copper/Gold ratio still plenty bearish for broad markets.
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The "norm S&P 500 PE" closed yesterday at 23.4x— exactly ten points above the median of the last 12 bear market...
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GS Sentiment Indicator remains in “light” territory, that is far from extreme extremes.
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200 Week Average /ES during 1st leg of British Pound Crisis
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Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
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2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here's USD's fellow rider in market liquidity destruction, the Gold/Silver ratio.
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
When USD & Gold/Silver ratio rise together it's usually... ruh roh! Liquidity crisis.
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fell out of the fork
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As Robert Miner pointed out, we have an Andrew's Pitchfork on the S&P
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EPS revisions began their latest leg lower well ahead of earnings season.
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Conference Board Confidence Tumbles As 'Hope' Hits 9-Year-Low
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US pump prices have tumbled now for 34 straight days, President Biden's approval rating has just collapsed to a ne...
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slopechart_$BTC.jpg
My first go at technical analysis on a wide time horizon for Bitcoin. Fun trying to pick out different features, I...
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GLD vs Yen
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And for those who think "it can't get any worse"... equity market valuations have only dropped to the same level t...
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes...
Gold continues to pivot vs. more inflation sensitive & cyclical items across the markets.
Just another Cu & Cu/Au post – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Copper/Gold ratio... bad to worse for the cyclical, inflation-sensitive stuff (hello commodities).
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T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Curious divergence today as 3 mo. T-bill yield is up, inflation expectations tracker down.
copper/gold ratio
Copper/Gold ratio is bounce with copper but it implies a respite (bounce) for the recently bearish inflation trade...
Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here is Copper/Gold, making a really lousy macro signal for those still pumping the inflation trades.
copper price
Doctor Copper breaks down and that's not good for the economy and it's not good for the inflation trades either.
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Even more disgusting than nominal XLV is the XLV/SPY ratio, because this ratio rises in bear market and if it gets...
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TZA has volume and price movement synced up again.
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And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer...
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Bitcoin does not like tighter financial conditions.
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VIX rose modestly today but equity risk remains massively under-priced relative to credit risk...
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Diverging volume for the first time since the RUT bear began. This is likely another indication that a rally is ab...
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Correlation Between NASDAQ And Bitcoin Since February 1, 2022
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Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From th...
Disaster in the making...
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slopechart_TWLO.jpg
For the loss of a button, the kingdom was lost, lol
Another zombie with no P/E
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slopechart_SPOT.jpg
Not only is this one way below its IPO price, it doesn't even have a P/E. Popular zombie that will probably be abs...
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
One day, it will be at zero, the company that has a patent on the gene sequence found in the lab made v*rus
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Stinky shoe analog
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slopechart_$SPX.jpg
1929 Analog
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Beautiful analogs
Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold is getting absolutely killed, but it's not even to the downside target yet. More importantly, check out the c...
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Bonk.
(so far)
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Leading indicator?
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Median Home Sales Price Versus 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980-2022
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But have more pain to go is they are to catch down to the yield curve's reality...
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Finally, investor pessimism has faded materially - the GS Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) is nearly neutral again
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