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2022-09-26_12-06-00.jpg (833×561)
2022-09-26_12-06-00.jpg (833×561)
Tim Knight
bearish europe.jpg (1193×621)
bearish europe.jpg (1193×621)
Tim Knight
2022-09-16_11-49-51.jpg (977×530)
2022-09-16_11-49-51.jpg (977×530)
Tim Knight
nwhenqllk9o91.png (1313×518)
nwhenqllk9o91.png (1313×518)
Tim Knight
2022-09-13_12-52-33.jpg (976×532)
2022-09-13_12-52-33.jpg (976×532)
Tim Knight
2
2022-09-12_13-59-11.jpg (974×530)
2022-09-12_13-59-11.jpg (974×530)
Tim Knight
1
2022-09-12_12-19-29_0.jpg (971×558)
2022-09-12_12-19-29_0.jpg (971×558)
Tim Knight
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
NFTRH
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (650×866)
fredgraph.png (650×866)
Tim Knight
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here's USD's fellow rider in market liquidity destruction, the Gold/Silver ratio.
NFTRH
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
When USD & Gold/Silver ratio rise together it's usually... ruh roh! Liquidity crisis.
NFTRH
slopechart_SPY.jpg
slopechart_SPY.jpg
fell out of the fork
Baby Bear
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
As Robert Miner pointed out, we have an Andrew's Pitchfork on the S&P
Baby Bear
earnings revisions are deeply in negative territory.jpg (526×418)
earnings revisions are deeply in negative territory.jpg (526×418)
EPS revisions began their latest leg lower well ahead of earnings season.
Tim Knight
1
2022-07-26_07-09-44.jpg (970×641)
2022-07-26_07-09-44.jpg (970×641)
Conference Board Confidence Tumbles As 'Hope' Hits 9-Year-Low
Tim Knight
1
2022-07-20_12-34-00.jpg (986×606)
2022-07-20_12-34-00.jpg (986×606)
US pump prices have tumbled now for 34 straight days, President Biden's approval rating has just collapsed to a ne...
Tim Knight
2022-07-12_07-37-23.jpg (1056×660)
2022-07-12_07-37-23.jpg (1056×660)
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
My first go at technical analysis on a wide time horizon for Bitcoin. Fun trying to pick out different features, I...
frazmac
2
slopechart_GLD//6J.jpg
slopechart_GLD//6J.jpg
GLD vs Yen
Baby Bear
1
2022-07-01_09-29-03.jpg (1076×705)
2022-07-01_09-29-03.jpg (1076×705)
And for those who think "it can't get any worse"... equity market valuations have only dropped to the same level t...
Tim Knight
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes...
Gold continues to pivot vs. more inflation sensitive & cyclical items across the markets.
NFTRH
Just another Cu & Cu/Au post – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Just another Cu & Cu/Au post – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Copper/Gold ratio... bad to worse for the cyclical, inflation-sensitive stuff (hello commodities).
NFTRH
2022-06-30_11-59-47.jpg (1077×709)
2022-06-30_11-59-47.jpg (1077×709)
Tim Knight
1
2022-06-29_13-11-44.jpg (1078×715)
2022-06-29_13-11-44.jpg (1078×715)
Tim Knight
1
T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Curious divergence today as 3 mo. T-bill yield is up, inflation expectations tracker down.
NFTRH
copper/gold ratio
copper/gold ratio
Copper/Gold ratio is bounce with copper but it implies a respite (bounce) for the recently bearish inflation trade...
NFTRH
Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here is Copper/Gold, making a really lousy macro signal for those still pumping the inflation trades.
NFTRH
copper price
copper price
Doctor Copper breaks down and that's not good for the economy and it's not good for the inflation trades either.
NFTRH
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Even more disgusting than nominal XLV is the XLV/SPY ratio, because this ratio rises in bear market and if it gets...
NFTRH
slopechart_TZA.jpg
slopechart_TZA.jpg
TZA has volume and price movement synced up again.
DoubleNaughtSpy
1
2022-06-01_10-31-17.jpg (991×650)
2022-06-01_10-31-17.jpg (991×650)
And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer...
Tim Knight
unnamed (11)_114.png (938×559)
unnamed (11)_114.png (938×559)
Bitcoin does not like tighter financial conditions.
Tim Knight
2022-05-18_11-51-46.jpg (990×664)
2022-05-18_11-51-46.jpg (990×664)
Tim Knight
1
2022-05-18_12-17-28.jpg (988×663)
2022-05-18_12-17-28.jpg (988×663)
VIX rose modestly today but equity risk remains massively under-priced relative to credit risk...
Tim Knight
slopechart_TZA.jpg
slopechart_TZA.jpg
Diverging volume for the first time since the RUT bear began. This is likely another indication that a rally is ab...
DoubleNaughtSpy
1
unnamed (9)_211.png (1280×837)
unnamed (9)_211.png (1280×837)
Correlation Between NASDAQ And Bitcoin Since February 1, 2022
Tim Knight
3
Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From th...
Disaster in the making...
NFTRH
2022-05-10.png (1280×630)
2022-05-10.png (1280×630)
Tim Knight
3
slopechart_TWLO.jpg
slopechart_TWLO.jpg
For the loss of a button, the kingdom was lost, lol Another zombie with no P/E
Baby Bear
2
slopechart_SPOT.jpg
slopechart_SPOT.jpg
Not only is this one way below its IPO price, it doesn't even have a P/E. Popular zombie that will probably be abs...
Baby Bear
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
One day, it will be at zero, the company that has a patent on the gene sequence found in the lab made v*rus
Baby Bear
slopechart_CROX.jpg
slopechart_CROX.jpg
Stinky shoe analog
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
1929 Analog
Baby Bear
slopechart_DKS.jpg
slopechart_DKS.jpg
Beautiful analogs
Baby Bear
Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold is getting absolutely killed, but it's not even to the downside target yet. More importantly, check out the c...
NFTRH
2
2022-04-28_12-21-58.jpg (917×679)
2022-04-28_12-21-58.jpg (917×679)
Tim Knight
2022-04-21_11-34-57.jpg (500×326)
2022-04-21_11-34-57.jpg (500×326)
Tim Knight
2022-04-21_09-27-36.jpg (500×326)
2022-04-21_09-27-36.jpg (500×326)
Tim Knight
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
Bonk. (so far)
sandunes
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Tim Knight
2
2022-04-05_07-28-27.jpg (1001×647)
2022-04-05_07-28-27.jpg (1001×647)
Tim Knight
slopechart_IYT.jpg
slopechart_IYT.jpg
Leading indicator?
Baby Bear
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Median Home Sales Price Versus 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980-2022
Tim Knight
2
PE fwd multiples.jpg (993×509)
PE fwd multiples.jpg (993×509)
Tim Knight
1
2022-03-22_14-03-15_0.jpg (966×624)
2022-03-22_14-03-15_0.jpg (966×624)
But have more pain to go is they are to catch down to the yield curve's reality...
Tim Knight
2022-03-22_12-24-56.jpg (900×578)
2022-03-22_12-24-56.jpg (900×578)
Finally, investor pessimism has faded materially - the GS Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) is nearly neutral again
Tim Knight
1
VIX pullback within new uptrend | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
VIX pullback within new uptrend | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
VIX pullback w/in new uptrend... sentiment not the no-brainer it was a couple weeks ago. Not by VIX at least. Othe...
NFTRH
1
2008-Bear-Market-Analogy-031522.png (856×505)
2008-Bear-Market-Analogy-031522.png (856×505)
Tim Knight
MS 2018 price analog.jpg (745×489)
MS 2018 price analog.jpg (745×489)
Tim Knight
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
NFTRH
high yield credit spreads
high yield credit spreads
Rising credit spreads not positive for economy (Captain Obvious).
NFTRH
HYG vs SPX ES 2022-03-14_22-38-24.jpg (1269×677)
HYG vs SPX ES 2022-03-14_22-38-24.jpg (1269×677)
Tim Knight
CpaydWCWIAAUjMH (967×512)
CpaydWCWIAAUjMH (967×512)
Tim Knight
Real-Oil-Price-Deviation-From-Trend-030422.png (542×360)
Real-Oil-Price-Deviation-From-Trend-030422.png (542×360)
Tim Knight
Doctor Copper among pre-market’s harsh reversals | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Doctor Copper among pre-market’s harsh reversals | Notes From...
Copper/Gold ratio will forecast bad things to come for the cyclical macro if it drops. As yet, still in consolidation.
NFTRH
slopechart_EPAM.jpg
slopechart_EPAM.jpg
Long Epam.
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_FRPT.jpg
slopechart_FRPT.jpg
Gourmet food for pets, negative earnings. Sure winner, lol
Baby Bear
3
2022-02-23_12-39-16.jpg (995×561)
2022-02-23_12-39-16.jpg (995×561)
US corporate credit risk continues to surge...
Tim Knight
2022-02-23_09-46-43_0.jpg (906×580)
2022-02-23_09-46-43_0.jpg (906×580)
S&P Breadth continues to weaken...
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_layered.jpg
slopechart_layered.jpg
Layered chart of IYR Covid and 2022 analog
Tim Knight
2
slopechart_layered.jpg
slopechart_layered.jpg
Here is the S&P from the late 1990s and then recent history, overlaid by way of Layered Charts.
Tim Knight
3
90lbu3ec0yi81.jpg (538×392)
90lbu3ec0yi81.jpg (538×392)
Tim Knight
3
slopechart_BYND.jpg
slopechart_BYND.jpg
Put a fork into it. Earnings 2/24
Baby Bear
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | No...
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades. But with the media cacophony is anyone listening?
NFTRH
2022-02-14_13-10-54.jpg (956×568)
2022-02-14_13-10-54.jpg (956×568)
Tim Knight
1
2022-02-11_10-09-21.jpg (500×297)
2022-02-11_10-09-21.jpg (500×297)
Tim Knight
inflation biden_6.jpg (761×429)
inflation biden_6.jpg (761×429)
Tim Knight
1
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Check out the orange line. Fed jawbones are not kidding. They are listening to what the bond market is DEMANDING o...
NFTRH
silver gold ratio
silver gold ratio
Silver/Gold ratio: lose this area and go dis-inflationary (at best). Hold it and turn up and it's inflation 'on'.
NFTRH
1
credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
(Manual) TLT Fib projection onto the Dec high, target 120
Baby Bear
2022-02-04_05-23-28.jpg (500×361)
2022-02-04_05-23-28.jpg (500×361)
The median stock in the S&P 500 Index is still roughly 20% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic and 70% more ex...
Tim Knight
2
2022-01-28_08-59-07.jpg (1006×541)
2022-01-28_08-59-07.jpg (1006×541)
Atlanta Fed Shocker: US Economy On Verge Of Contraction
Tim Knight
Copper wobbles, Cu/Au ratio has no signal (yet) | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Copper wobbles, Cu/Au ratio has no signal (yet) | Notes From the...
Which way will Cu/Au break? Bulls, esp. cyclical reflation/inflation bulls, better hope the direction is up.
NFTRH
slopechart_HAS.jpg
slopechart_HAS.jpg
If Hasbro is an indicator of what is to come -- wow -- watch out! --Look at that Analog!
DadTrader
slopechart_KO.jpg
slopechart_KO.jpg
Analog on Coke, if that second line cracks - oopsy - drink water it is near free.
DadTrader
1
3v7xzwnagod81.jpg (960×947)
3v7xzwnagod81.jpg (960×947)
Tim Knight
Volatility at risk | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Volatility at risk | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Big time risk if you're buying vol/bear now. Regardless of whether a bear market is beginning (quite poss. given V...
NFTRH
USD & Gold/Silver ratio each bounce | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
USD & Gold/Silver ratio each bounce | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
If USD keeps rallying *AND* the Gold/Silver ratio also puts on an extended rally the markets are going to flush in...
NFTRH
1
82ziyubno7d81.png (2880×1800)
82ziyubno7d81.png (2880×1800)
Tim Knight
2
bitcoin and arkk.jpg (620×348)
bitcoin and arkk.jpg (620×348)
Tim Knight
Doctor Copper has not lost the patient, yet | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Doctor Copper has not lost the patient, yet | Notes From the Rab...
Some charts bill themselves as the dreaded "most important chart in the world", but I think this one really is.
NFTRH
Doctor Copper has not lost the patient, yet | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Doctor Copper has not lost the patient, yet | Notes From the Rab...
Copper/Gold ratio is macro-undecided as yet.
NFTRH
2022-01-19_09-09-21.jpg (633×729)
2022-01-19_09-09-21.jpg (633×729)
Tim Knight
2022-01-19_09-11-02.jpg (644×730)
2022-01-19_09-11-02.jpg (644×730)
Tim Knight
1
Copper/Gold ratio doing it again | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Copper/Gold ratio doing it again | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
If gold takes preeminence among the metals... well, you know. The inflated macro will pancake.
NFTRH
2
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
NFTRH
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
Inflation expectations take a hit but still aloft.
NFTRH
slopechart_$ETH.jpg
slopechart_$ETH.jpg
Eth - year SMA Pretty much just tagged it. Trading Rules Observation in Regard. Purchase Eth if it maintains...
sandunes