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2022-09-26_12-06-00.jpg (833×561)
bearish europe.jpg (1193×621)
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Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
fredgraph.png (650×866)
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here's USD's fellow rider in market liquidity destruction, the Gold/Silver ratio.
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
When USD & Gold/Silver ratio rise together it's usually... ruh roh! Liquidity crisis.
slopechart_SPY.jpg
fell out of the fork
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
As Robert Miner pointed out, we have an Andrew's Pitchfork on the S&P
earnings revisions are deeply in negative territory.jpg (526×418)
EPS revisions began their latest leg lower well ahead of earnings season.
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2022-07-26_07-09-44.jpg (970×641)
Conference Board Confidence Tumbles As 'Hope' Hits 9-Year-Low
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2022-07-20_12-34-00.jpg (986×606)
US pump prices have tumbled now for 34 straight days, President Biden's approval rating has just collapsed to a ne...
2022-07-12_07-37-23.jpg (1056×660)
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slopechart_$BTC.jpg
My first go at technical analysis on a wide time horizon for Bitcoin. Fun trying to pick out different features, I...
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slopechart_GLD//6J.jpg
GLD vs Yen
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2022-07-01_09-29-03.jpg (1076×705)
And for those who think "it can't get any worse"... equity market valuations have only dropped to the same level t...
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes...
Gold continues to pivot vs. more inflation sensitive & cyclical items across the markets.
Just another Cu & Cu/Au post – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Copper/Gold ratio... bad to worse for the cyclical, inflation-sensitive stuff (hello commodities).
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T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Curious divergence today as 3 mo. T-bill yield is up, inflation expectations tracker down.
copper/gold ratio
Copper/Gold ratio is bounce with copper but it implies a respite (bounce) for the recently bearish inflation trade...
Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here is Copper/Gold, making a really lousy macro signal for those still pumping the inflation trades.
copper price
Doctor Copper breaks down and that's not good for the economy and it's not good for the inflation trades either.
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Even more disgusting than nominal XLV is the XLV/SPY ratio, because this ratio rises in bear market and if it gets...
slopechart_TZA.jpg
TZA has volume and price movement synced up again.
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2022-06-01_10-31-17.jpg (991×650)
And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer...
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Bitcoin does not like tighter financial conditions.
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2022-05-18_12-17-28.jpg (988×663)
VIX rose modestly today but equity risk remains massively under-priced relative to credit risk...
slopechart_TZA.jpg
Diverging volume for the first time since the RUT bear began. This is likely another indication that a rally is ab...
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Correlation Between NASDAQ And Bitcoin Since February 1, 2022
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Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From th...
Disaster in the making...
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slopechart_TWLO.jpg
For the loss of a button, the kingdom was lost, lol
Another zombie with no P/E
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slopechart_SPOT.jpg
Not only is this one way below its IPO price, it doesn't even have a P/E. Popular zombie that will probably be abs...
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
One day, it will be at zero, the company that has a patent on the gene sequence found in the lab made v*rus
slopechart_CROX.jpg
Stinky shoe analog
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slopechart_$SPX.jpg
1929 Analog
slopechart_DKS.jpg
Beautiful analogs
Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold is getting absolutely killed, but it's not even to the downside target yet. More importantly, check out the c...
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slopechart_$BTC.jpg
Bonk.
(so far)
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slopechart_IYT.jpg
Leading indicator?
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Median Home Sales Price Versus 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980-2022
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PE fwd multiples.jpg (993×509)
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2022-03-22_14-03-15_0.jpg (966×624)
But have more pain to go is they are to catch down to the yield curve's reality...
2022-03-22_12-24-56.jpg (900×578)
Finally, investor pessimism has faded materially - the GS Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) is nearly neutral again
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VIX pullback within new uptrend | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
VIX pullback w/in new uptrend... sentiment not the no-brainer it was a couple weeks ago. Not by VIX at least. Othe...
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2008-Bear-Market-Analogy-031522.png (856×505)
MS 2018 price analog.jpg (745×489)
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
high yield credit spreads
Rising credit spreads not positive for economy (Captain Obvious).
HYG vs SPX ES 2022-03-14_22-38-24.jpg (1269×677)
CpaydWCWIAAUjMH (967×512)
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Doctor Copper among pre-market’s harsh reversals | Notes From...
Copper/Gold ratio will forecast bad things to come for the cyclical macro if it drops. As yet, still in consolidation.
slopechart_EPAM.jpg
Long Epam.
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slopechart_FRPT.jpg
Gourmet food for pets, negative earnings. Sure winner, lol
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2022-02-23_12-39-16.jpg (995×561)
US corporate credit risk continues to surge...
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S&P Breadth continues to weaken...
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slopechart_layered.jpg
Layered chart of IYR Covid and 2022 analog
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slopechart_layered.jpg
Here is the S&P from the late 1990s and then recent history, overlaid by way of Layered Charts.
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slopechart_BYND.jpg
Put a fork into it. Earnings 2/24
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | No...
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades. But with the media cacophony is anyone listening?
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inflation biden_6.jpg (761×429)
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Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Check out the orange line. Fed jawbones are not kidding. They are listening to what the bond market is DEMANDING o...
silver gold ratio
Silver/Gold ratio: lose this area and go dis-inflationary (at best). Hold it and turn up and it's inflation 'on'.
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credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
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slopechart_TLT.jpg
(Manual) TLT Fib projection onto the Dec high, target 120
2022-02-04_05-23-28.jpg (500×361)
The median stock in the S&P 500 Index is still roughly 20% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic and 70% more ex...
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2022-01-28_08-59-07.jpg (1006×541)
Atlanta Fed Shocker: US Economy On Verge Of Contraction
Copper wobbles, Cu/Au ratio has no signal (yet) | Notes From the...
Which way will Cu/Au break? Bulls, esp. cyclical reflation/inflation bulls, better hope the direction is up.
slopechart_HAS.jpg
If Hasbro is an indicator of what is to come -- wow -- watch out! --Look at that Analog!
slopechart_KO.jpg
Analog on Coke, if that second line cracks - oopsy - drink water it is near free.
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Volatility at risk | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Big time risk if you're buying vol/bear now. Regardless of whether a bear market is beginning (quite poss. given V...
USD & Gold/Silver ratio each bounce | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
If USD keeps rallying *AND* the Gold/Silver ratio also puts on an extended rally the markets are going to flush in...
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Doctor Copper has not lost the patient, yet | Notes From the Rab...
Some charts bill themselves as the dreaded "most important chart in the world", but I think this one really is.
Doctor Copper has not lost the patient, yet | Notes From the Rab...
Copper/Gold ratio is macro-undecided as yet.
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Copper/Gold ratio doing it again | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
If gold takes preeminence among the metals... well, you know. The inflated macro will pancake.
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Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
Inflation expectations take a hit but still aloft.
slopechart_$ETH.jpg
Eth - year SMA
Pretty much just tagged it.
Trading Rules Observation in Regard. Purchase Eth if it maintains...