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A deflationary yield curve steepener
A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
NFTRH
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
Tim Knight
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Tim Knight
Gold/Copper ratio, monthly chart
Gold/Copper ratio, monthly chart
Risk is on copper's side vs. gold. Risk is also against the inflated cyclical macro.
NFTRH
slopechart_BILL.jpg
slopechart_BILL.jpg
Beautiful
Baby Bear
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
Tim Knight
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
Tim Knight
2023-02-17_08-05-32_1.jpg (978×579)
2023-02-17_08-05-32_1.jpg (978×579)
Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
Tim Knight
2023-02-17_09-58-14.jpg (569×369)
2023-02-17_09-58-14.jpg (569×369)
Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
Tim Knight
2023-02-14_06-44-49.jpg (805×647)
2023-02-14_06-44-49.jpg (805×647)
Tim Knight
unnamed_888.png (667×413)
unnamed_888.png (667×413)
The GS "Risk Appetite Indicator" is breaking out to levels not seen in close to 2 years.
Tim Knight
1
GDX Golden Cross: a price paid | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
GDX Golden Cross: a price paid | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Golden Cross in gold stocks resolves EXACTLY as it should have. Same goes in reverse for Death Cross. Also, it's n...
NFTRH
2
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
Tim Knight
Philly Fed manufacturing survey for december
Philly Fed manufacturing survey for december
Philly Fed has decline to the pleasant 'Goldilocks' zone, conveniently during the Q4-Q1 market relief seasonal pha...
NFTRH
Gold vs. stock markets, commodities and inflation expectations
Gold vs. stock markets, commodities and inflation expectations
Gold is... Beuller?
NFTRH
mr7hso3y8n6a1.jpg (640×661)
mr7hso3y8n6a1.jpg (640×661)
Tim Knight
4
u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)
u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)
Forget the hawking Fed, when the 2yr yield rolls over and does its thing to the yield curve, you'd better be ready...
NFTRH
1
m2 money supply
m2 money supply
If you are a stock market bull AND you believe there is a correlation between M2 and the SM, you may see the extre...
NFTRH
1
household vs establishment dec 2022 delta.jpg (1280×754)
household vs establishment dec 2022 delta.jpg (1280×754)
Tim Knight
1
2022-11-28_12-37-55.jpg (948×542)
2022-11-28_12-37-55.jpg (948×542)
Tim Knight
2
HrEet1Q.png (1155×655)
HrEet1Q.png (1155×655)
Tim Knight
2022-11-22_12-52-01.jpg (952×545)
2022-11-22_12-52-01.jpg (952×545)
Tim Knight
image-10.png (979×780)
image-10.png (979×780)
Tim Knight
image-12.png (980×778)
image-12.png (980×778)
Tim Knight
slopechart_JOE.jpg
slopechart_JOE.jpg
50/100 MA Cross. Seems a decent chart.
kingofthenw
slopechart_OLPX.jpg
slopechart_OLPX.jpg
Released negative outlook ahead of earnings, bummer on playing this for earnings
Baby Bear
slopechart_CURI.jpg
slopechart_CURI.jpg
Curious if it can survive? Negative EPS, no meat to the bone
Baby Bear
pprzfdkxofx91.jpg (640×326)
pprzfdkxofx91.jpg (640×326)
Tim Knight
2022-10-31_07-09-55.jpg (954×574)
2022-10-31_07-09-55.jpg (954×574)
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_ITB.jpg
slopechart_ITB.jpg
Getting close to the trend line
Baby Bear
2022-10-25_07-03-08.jpg (932×575)
2022-10-25_07-03-08.jpg (932×575)
Americans' Consumer Sentiment Slumps As 'Current Conditions' Crash To 18-Month Lows
Tim Knight
3
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._eAuPJQ_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._eAuPJQ_l.png
IWZM Dark pool at EOD highs VolumeLeaders.com
perky pooper
2022-10-21_09-51-47.jpg (975×617)
2022-10-21_09-51-47.jpg (975×617)
Tim Knight
1
VIX.jpg
VIX.jpg
$VIX chart from FAIRLEAD STRATEGIES https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-fear-gauge-is-flashing-a-warnin...
Claws
Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/ES not looking good for stocks or the cyclical market view. Not good at all.
NFTRH
slopechart_ITB.jpg
slopechart_ITB.jpg
Lots of room to the downside
Baby Bear
2
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Gold vs. Inflation Expectations has popped above the SMA 50. If you're a gold bug and want to see a solid rally in...
NFTRH
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
CME Group now up to nearly 73% forecast of +.75% on Nov. 2nd.
NFTRH
1
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Inflation expectations continue to fade.
NFTRH
Does the Copper/Gold ratio look good to you? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Does the Copper/Gold ratio look good to you? – Notes From the...
Copper/Gold ratio still plenty bearish for broad markets.
NFTRH
1
unnamed (14)_41.png (495×632)
unnamed (14)_41.png (495×632)
The "norm S&P 500 PE" closed yesterday at 23.4x— exactly ten points above the median of the last 12 bear market...
Tim Knight
2
unnamed (11)_184.png (537×330)
unnamed (11)_184.png (537×330)
GS Sentiment Indicator remains in “light” territory, that is far from extreme extremes.
Tim Knight
slopechart_/ES.jpg
slopechart_/ES.jpg
200 Week Average /ES during 1st leg of British Pound Crisis
Reverb
2022-09-26_12-06-00.jpg (833×561)
2022-09-26_12-06-00.jpg (833×561)
Tim Knight
bearish europe.jpg (1193×621)
bearish europe.jpg (1193×621)
Tim Knight
2022-09-16_11-49-51.jpg (977×530)
2022-09-16_11-49-51.jpg (977×530)
Tim Knight
nwhenqllk9o91.png (1313×518)
nwhenqllk9o91.png (1313×518)
Tim Knight
2022-09-13_12-52-33.jpg (976×532)
2022-09-13_12-52-33.jpg (976×532)
Tim Knight
2
2022-09-12_13-59-11.jpg (974×530)
2022-09-12_13-59-11.jpg (974×530)
Tim Knight
1
2022-09-12_12-19-29_0.jpg (971×558)
2022-09-12_12-19-29_0.jpg (971×558)
Tim Knight
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
NFTRH
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (650×866)
fredgraph.png (650×866)
Tim Knight
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here's USD's fellow rider in market liquidity destruction, the Gold/Silver ratio.
NFTRH
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
When USD & Gold/Silver ratio rise together it's usually... ruh roh! Liquidity crisis.
NFTRH
slopechart_SPY.jpg
slopechart_SPY.jpg
fell out of the fork
Baby Bear
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
As Robert Miner pointed out, we have an Andrew's Pitchfork on the S&P
Baby Bear
earnings revisions are deeply in negative territory.jpg (526×418)
earnings revisions are deeply in negative territory.jpg (526×418)
EPS revisions began their latest leg lower well ahead of earnings season.
Tim Knight
1
2022-07-26_07-09-44.jpg (970×641)
2022-07-26_07-09-44.jpg (970×641)
Conference Board Confidence Tumbles As 'Hope' Hits 9-Year-Low
Tim Knight
1
2022-07-20_12-34-00.jpg (986×606)
2022-07-20_12-34-00.jpg (986×606)
US pump prices have tumbled now for 34 straight days, President Biden's approval rating has just collapsed to a ne...
Tim Knight
2022-07-12_07-37-23.jpg (1056×660)
2022-07-12_07-37-23.jpg (1056×660)
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
My first go at technical analysis on a wide time horizon for Bitcoin. Fun trying to pick out different features, I...
frazmac
2
slopechart_GLD//6J.jpg
slopechart_GLD//6J.jpg
GLD vs Yen
Baby Bear
1
2022-07-01_09-29-03.jpg (1076×705)
2022-07-01_09-29-03.jpg (1076×705)
And for those who think "it can't get any worse"... equity market valuations have only dropped to the same level t...
Tim Knight
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes...
Gold continues to pivot vs. more inflation sensitive & cyclical items across the markets.
NFTRH
Just another Cu & Cu/Au post – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Just another Cu & Cu/Au post – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Copper/Gold ratio... bad to worse for the cyclical, inflation-sensitive stuff (hello commodities).
NFTRH
2022-06-30_11-59-47.jpg (1077×709)
2022-06-30_11-59-47.jpg (1077×709)
Tim Knight
1
2022-06-29_13-11-44.jpg (1078×715)
2022-06-29_13-11-44.jpg (1078×715)
Tim Knight
1
T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Curious divergence today as 3 mo. T-bill yield is up, inflation expectations tracker down.
NFTRH
copper/gold ratio
copper/gold ratio
Copper/Gold ratio is bounce with copper but it implies a respite (bounce) for the recently bearish inflation trade...
NFTRH
Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here is Copper/Gold, making a really lousy macro signal for those still pumping the inflation trades.
NFTRH
copper price
copper price
Doctor Copper breaks down and that's not good for the economy and it's not good for the inflation trades either.
NFTRH
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Even more disgusting than nominal XLV is the XLV/SPY ratio, because this ratio rises in bear market and if it gets...
NFTRH
slopechart_TZA.jpg
slopechart_TZA.jpg
TZA has volume and price movement synced up again.
DoubleNaughtSpy
1
2022-06-01_10-31-17.jpg (991×650)
2022-06-01_10-31-17.jpg (991×650)
And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer...
Tim Knight
unnamed (11)_114.png (938×559)
unnamed (11)_114.png (938×559)
Bitcoin does not like tighter financial conditions.
Tim Knight
2022-05-18_11-51-46.jpg (990×664)
2022-05-18_11-51-46.jpg (990×664)
Tim Knight
1
2022-05-18_12-17-28.jpg (988×663)
2022-05-18_12-17-28.jpg (988×663)
VIX rose modestly today but equity risk remains massively under-priced relative to credit risk...
Tim Knight
slopechart_TZA.jpg
slopechart_TZA.jpg
Diverging volume for the first time since the RUT bear began. This is likely another indication that a rally is ab...
DoubleNaughtSpy
1
unnamed (9)_211.png (1280×837)
unnamed (9)_211.png (1280×837)
Correlation Between NASDAQ And Bitcoin Since February 1, 2022
Tim Knight
3
Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From th...
Disaster in the making...
NFTRH
2022-05-10.png (1280×630)
2022-05-10.png (1280×630)
Tim Knight
3
slopechart_TWLO.jpg
slopechart_TWLO.jpg
For the loss of a button, the kingdom was lost, lol Another zombie with no P/E
Baby Bear
2
slopechart_SPOT.jpg
slopechart_SPOT.jpg
Not only is this one way below its IPO price, it doesn't even have a P/E. Popular zombie that will probably be abs...
Baby Bear
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
One day, it will be at zero, the company that has a patent on the gene sequence found in the lab made v*rus
Baby Bear
slopechart_CROX.jpg
slopechart_CROX.jpg
Stinky shoe analog
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
1929 Analog
Baby Bear
slopechart_DKS.jpg
slopechart_DKS.jpg
Beautiful analogs
Baby Bear
Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold is getting absolutely killed, but it's not even to the downside target yet. More importantly, check out the c...
NFTRH
2
2022-04-28_12-21-58.jpg (917×679)
2022-04-28_12-21-58.jpg (917×679)
Tim Knight
2022-04-21_11-34-57.jpg (500×326)
2022-04-21_11-34-57.jpg (500×326)
Tim Knight
2022-04-21_09-27-36.jpg (500×326)
2022-04-21_09-27-36.jpg (500×326)
Tim Knight
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
slopechart_$BTC.jpg
Bonk. (so far)
sandunes
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Tim Knight
2
2022-04-05_07-28-27.jpg (1001×647)
2022-04-05_07-28-27.jpg (1001×647)
Tim Knight
slopechart_IYT.jpg
slopechart_IYT.jpg
Leading indicator?
Baby Bear
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Median Home Sales Price Versus 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980-2022
Tim Knight
2
PE fwd multiples.jpg (993×509)
PE fwd multiples.jpg (993×509)
Tim Knight
1
2022-03-22_14-03-15_0.jpg (966×624)
2022-03-22_14-03-15_0.jpg (966×624)
But have more pain to go is they are to catch down to the yield curve's reality...
Tim Knight
2022-03-22_12-24-56.jpg (900×578)
2022-03-22_12-24-56.jpg (900×578)
Finally, investor pessimism has faded materially - the GS Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) is nearly neutral again
Tim Knight
1