Browse Symbol Stacks: $INDU: The Long Finger of Doom

The Long Finger of Doom

The Dow since 1900. I like how this pitchfork shows the last 25 years, The red oval is a wild-ass guess on a bear market bottom.

Comments

GonnabesickGonnabesick
Is there some accepted standard rule for the anchor on the handle? 6/6/20
VioletViolet
Just looked at your blogspot and "Taking a Break from Looting" - KooL. 6/6/20
Professor DoomfingerProfessor Doomfinger
I don't think so. I don't trade on them, but I find them useful as an easy way to draw some trend lines. I am currently short only fiat currencies. 
6/6/20
Mr. WizardMr. Wizard
Just a short comment or two: 
If you draw the mean through the data, the past 20 or 30 years of data becomes a lot less problematic as far as valuations go. And, the mean is very sensitive to starting dates, I always try to think how moving the starting date back into the 1800s affects the plot. (And this is also true of the large number of plots that start in 1926; usually from analysts and money managers.) 6/6/20
NYUGradNYUGrad
What bear mkt? 6/6/20
MyopiaMyopia
The problems are: 
 
“The Dow” back then isn’t “The Dow” now. 
 
The numbers aren’t adjusted for inflation. 
 
The chart itself doesn’t reflect the numeric change between a “25¢ steak dinner with all the trimmings” world of Great Depression 1931 and our’s.  
 
It simply confirms my long-held suspicion that such analysis is exceedingly problematic and deceptive. 6/7/20
MyopiaMyopia
I mean, how many monetary systems have we gone through? They are very different. How many major wars? How many crashes and insolvencies forcing an index reshuffling.  
 
“The Dow” 20 stock average used to be a major market indicator. It used to have the biggest, most important, companies in its portfolio. AA, BA, C, DD, EK, GE, GF, GM GT, IP, JPM, KO, MMM, OI, SD, down to UTX, WX, and Z. Most of those are gone. 
 
And if that wasn’t already enough ... 
 
“... Although it is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, many consider the Dow to be an inadequate representation of the overall U.S. stock market compared to broader market indices such as the S&P 500 Index or Russell 3000 because it only includes 30 large cap companies, is not weighted by market capitalization, and does not use a weighted arithmetic mean ...”. 6/7/20
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