Browse Stacks: Trading: Stocks


2024 seasonality.png (909×573)
2024 seasonality.png (909×573)
Tim Knight
Slope of Hope Logo
Slope of Hope Logo
pepperkma
a8ec1e835735bc0788ae9da6e60cc8f7.png (1309×856)
a8ec1e835735bc0788ae9da6e60cc8f7.png (1309×856)
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_MDB.jpg
slopechart_MDB.jpg
Price gap breech on MDB
TN_Cycle
F1qBup0XsAEhnZA (1179×743)
F1qBup0XsAEhnZA (1179×743)
Tim Knight
net long.jpg (450×325)
net long.jpg (450×325)
Equity futures positioning
Tim Knight
2023-07-21_07-35-20.jpg (607×395)
2023-07-21_07-35-20.jpg (607×395)
Despite being within 6% of its highs, the S&P is still in historical bear-market territory.
Tim Knight
2023-07-20_08-52-18.jpg (1065×518)
2023-07-20_08-52-18.jpg (1065×518)
Shown below are is the performance of the SPX after each 3rd Friday expiration.
Tim Knight
1
bfm79DF.jpg (953×577)
bfm79DF.jpg (953×577)
Jesus........US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
Tim Knight
4
bfm73B1.jpg (971×598)
bfm73B1.jpg (971×598)
US equity market continues to decouple higher from the declining trend in bank reserves at The Fed...
Tim Knight
1
fed funds vs spx.jpg (1252×665)
fed funds vs spx.jpg (1252×665)
The S&P 500 is now ~3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022...
Tim Knight
2
RGEG (1).png
RGEG (1).png
American now and then
Silver Singularity
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
Silver Singularity
2
tp6.png (1280×726)
tp6.png (1280×726)
Speaking of NDX, the July seasonals are superb: up 15 of the last 15 for an average return of 4.64%:
Tim Knight
tp3_0.png (960×672)
tp3_0.png (960×672)
horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
Tim Knight
tp1_0.png (1065×696)
tp1_0.png (1065×696)
6-week trading range in S&P
Tim Knight
spx hit rate.jpg (864×657)
spx hit rate.jpg (864×657)
Tim Knight
1
breadth very weak MS.jpg (1113×596)
breadth very weak MS.jpg (1113×596)
Tim Knight
breadth extremely negative.jpg (1103×589)
breadth extremely negative.jpg (1103×589)
Tim Knight
spx fair value.jpg (882×474)
spx fair value.jpg (882×474)
"Fair value" of the S&P is 3,126
Tim Knight
ERP_2.jpg (887×474)
ERP_2.jpg (887×474)
Tim Knight
PMI vs SPX.jpg (886×473)
PMI vs SPX.jpg (886×473)
Tim Knight
1
download (47).png (715×432)
download (47).png (715×432)
US Equity Sentiment Indicator is in stretched territory for the first time since April 2021
Tim Knight
download (27)_3.png (775×594)
download (27)_3.png (775×594)
Tim Knight
download (20)_7.png (775×594)
download (20)_7.png (775×594)
Quarter-End Pension Fund Portfolio Rebalancing: You are now funded. Big equity rebalance for sale:
Tim Knight
download (18)_7.png (771×594)
download (18)_7.png (771×594)
Remember when US futures positioning was short -$510 Billion notional on 9/13/22. It is long $20 Billion today.
Tim Knight
6JUN20.png
6JUN20.png
Guys, in the end... am I good at micro ? ^^
Silver Singularity
GS SI indicator.png (715×432)
GS SI indicator.png (715×432)
S&P Positioning Is The "Most Extended Ever"
Tim Knight
2
5JUN20.png
5JUN20.png
Now THAT'S some optimism right there!
Silver Singularity
2
4JUN20.png
4JUN20.png
Very interesting times to say the least
Silver Singularity
2
3JUN20.png
3JUN20.png
Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
Silver Singularity
4
1JUN20.png
1JUN20.png
French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
Silver Singularity
1JUN19.png
1JUN19.png
End of an era precursor?
Silver Singularity
3JUN18.jpg
3JUN18.jpg
Silver Singularity
2JUN18.png
2JUN18.png
Both can't be right, can't see how it would be possible!
Silver Singularity
2
1JUN18.png
1JUN18.png
Silver Singularity
7
bfm8206_0.jpg (1023×609)
bfm8206_0.jpg (1023×609)
Tim Knight
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746cd2f1b6e9fbb2ab2aa448b0596331.png (1176×553)
Tim Knight
1
bfm37CC_0.jpg (941×543)
bfm37CC_0.jpg (941×543)
Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
Tim Knight
bfm3343.jpg (941×563)
bfm3343.jpg (941×563)
And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
Tim Knight
bfm5A47_1.jpg (941×563)
bfm5A47_1.jpg (941×563)
May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
Tim Knight
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4f43962f7b273a22a24c16729a2c9d4c.png (755×355)
45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
Tim Knight
bfm3D59.jpg (938×572)
bfm3D59.jpg (938×572)
Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble...
Tim Knight
median stock fwd pe.jpg (960×601)
median stock fwd pe.jpg (960×601)
The S&P 500 median stock forward P/E is 18.3x (in the top 15% of historical levels back to the mid-1990s;
Tim Knight
image - 2023-05-18T125849.253.png (1269×669)
image - 2023-05-18T125849.253.png (1269×669)
The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
Tim Knight
1
market breadth.jpg (744×445)
market breadth.jpg (744×445)
It is unusual to have breadth this low.
Tim Knight
1
5 stocks 23% of spx.jpg (643×465)
5 stocks 23% of spx.jpg (643×465)
5 stocks = 23% of S&P 500
Tim Knight
2023-05-08_12-56-40.jpg (500×500)
2023-05-08_12-56-40.jpg (500×500)
The short sale ban in 2008
Tim Knight
slopechart_AAPL.jpg
slopechart_AAPL.jpg
Apple re-testing its prior weekly gap down range from late Summer 22
moneymiser21
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aef6618d-33c8-4b7e-8457-ae0f37869de7_1199x701.jpeg (1199×701)
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aef6618d...
Tim Knight
1
idokxoqh2osa1.png (680×415)
idokxoqh2osa1.png (680×415)
Tim Knight
bfm9FDE_0.jpg (990×660)
bfm9FDE_0.jpg (990×660)
And tech is now trading almost as rich as it has ever traded to the overall market...
Tim Knight
bfm7343.jpg (990×660)
bfm7343.jpg (990×660)
P/E ratio back to pre-Covid HIGHS
Tim Knight
1
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22dde88c3fbc251022513b9265324da6.png (1340×876)
The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
Tim Knight
hn4wgf2i0ppa1.jpg (1542×955)
hn4wgf2i0ppa1.jpg (1542×955)
Tim Knight
Snag_31e99f4.png (948×617)
Snag_31e99f4.png (948×617)
Bloomberg data reveals that IPOs have only managed to raise $2.4 billion in 2023, which is 43% lower than the amou...
Tim Knight
1
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Tim Knight
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, broad market stocks (SMH, QQQ, SPY)
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, b...
Preferred US stock market leadership view is intact to the Q4-Q1 bear market rally theme.
NFTRH
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Daily chart of NQ is at clear support, needs to hold to remain normal to an ongoing rally situation.
NFTRH
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
If you ever want to short USD, just buy EEM. Inverse EM is USD.
NFTRH
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
SPY inverted H&S test happening and it's for all the marbles... bear market rally test of the highs or the next le...
NFTRH
1
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
Tim Knight
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
Tim Knight
2023-02-17_08-05-32_1.jpg (978×579)
2023-02-17_08-05-32_1.jpg (978×579)
Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
Tim Knight
2023-02-17_09-58-14.jpg (569×369)
2023-02-17_09-58-14.jpg (569×369)
Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
Tim Knight
2023-02-15_09-34-32.jpg (1280×890)
2023-02-15_09-34-32.jpg (1280×890)
US equity markets have been - in one veteran trader's words - "an utter shitshow of instant trends and trend-reversal...
Tim Knight
1
unnamed (7)_671.png (700×467)
unnamed (7)_671.png (700×467)
The percentage of assets (sum of equity, bond & money market assets) in money market funds is about ~17%. Goldman'...
Tim Knight
3
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
Tim Knight
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unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
Tim Knight
2023-02-14_06-44-49.jpg (805×647)
2023-02-14_06-44-49.jpg (805×647)
Tim Knight
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
Tim Knight
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s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._NgnHyr_l.png
Planet Fitness
Petrchio
hui gold bugs index, monthly chart
hui gold bugs index, monthly chart
HUI is locked and loaded for 500 in next 1-2 years.
NFTRH
1
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s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._YhSJ0k_l.png
Number nine, number nine, number nine
Petrchio
2 year US Treasury bond yield
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
NFTRH
2023-01-17_11-53-06.jpg (945×583)
2023-01-17_11-53-06.jpg (945×583)
"Most Shorted" stocks continued their huge squeeze higher, now up 20% from the post-payrolls dip...
Tim Knight
vgwc86a5pgba1.png (1109×582)
vgwc86a5pgba1.png (1109×582)
Best of Cramer 2022
Tim Knight
hv4zpf7qogba1.png (1279×657)
hv4zpf7qogba1.png (1279×657)
Worst of Cramer 2022
Tim Knight
2
tsx Venture index, TSX-V
tsx Venture index, TSX-V
Speculative 'resources' and inflation traders should be aware that da 'V' is still on the 510 Express (gap fill)....
NFTRH
xop/xle ratio of energy sector internals
xop/xle ratio of energy sector internals
If you believe in this internal indicator (XOP/XLE ratio) and you're an Energy bull, 'ruh roh!' might be the appropri...
NFTRH
hui gold bugs index ratio to s&p 500 (HUI/SPX ratio)
hui gold bugs index ratio to s&p 500 (HUI/SPX ratio)
Gold stock leadership to broad stocks now 4 months along...
NFTRH
1
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
slopechart_MRNA.jpg
Petrchio
slopechart_SCCO.jpg
slopechart_SCCO.jpg
Copper stocks may move. This one is flagging
Petrchio
S&P 500 index, us stock market (SPX)
S&P 500 index, us stock market (SPX)
To antagonize my favorite bearish website... (post link explains more about this imagined bull pattern).
NFTRH
1
image (68)_0.png (1280×750)
image (68)_0.png (1280×750)
The Nasdaq is on track for its worst December since 2002..
Tim Knight
Ugly Tesla stock chart gap fill coming sooner or laterNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Ugly Tesla stock chart gap fill coming sooner or laterNotes From...
Anyone for Tesla to 4? That's the implied target of a disgusting H&S. But for now, think about the gap at 81.
NFTRH
mr7hso3y8n6a1.jpg (640×661)
mr7hso3y8n6a1.jpg (640×661)
Tim Knight
4
FkRh-upX0AAqw1j (1911×896)
FkRh-upX0AAqw1j (1911×896)
Tim Knight
SPY vs. SP… err, TLTNotes From the Rabbit Hole
SPY vs. SP… err, TLTNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Trend for stocks (incl. dividends) vs. L/T T bonds (incl. div) still intact. Expecting this to change in Q1/H1, 2023.
NFTRH
m2 money supply
m2 money supply
If you are a stock market bull AND you believe there is a correlation between M2 and the SM, you may see the extre...
NFTRH
1
HrEet1Q.png (1155×655)
HrEet1Q.png (1155×655)
Tim Knight
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zus04eq7gp0a1.jpg (1125×667)
Tim Knight
2
bull base bear case ms 2023.jpg (898×584)
bull base bear case ms 2023.jpg (898×584)
Morgan Stanley prediction
Tim Knight
pprzfdkxofx91.jpg (640×326)
pprzfdkxofx91.jpg (640×326)
Tim Knight
2022-10-31_11-26-12.jpg (958×658)
2022-10-31_11-26-12.jpg (958×658)
It was the best monthly return for the Dow since Jan 1976
Tim Knight
3
2022-10-31_07-09-55.jpg (954×574)
2022-10-31_07-09-55.jpg (954×574)
Tim Knight
1
2022-10-26_06-11-16.jpg (940×573)
2022-10-26_06-11-16.jpg (940×573)
Will The S&P 500 Hit 2,900 By The End Of The Fed's Tightening Cycle?
Tim Knight
2022-10-24_08-43-52.jpg (1280×768)
2022-10-24_08-43-52.jpg (1280×768)
Tim Knight
2
dvqyl900tmv91.jpg (640×540)
dvqyl900tmv91.jpg (640×540)
Tim Knight
4
Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/ES not looking good for stocks or the cyclical market view. Not good at all.
NFTRH