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:
Trading
: Stocks
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Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
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And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
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May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
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45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
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Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble...
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The S&P 500 median stock forward P/E is 18.3x (in the top 15% of historical levels back to the mid-1990s;
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The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
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It is unusual to have breadth this low.
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5 stocks = 23% of S&P 500
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The short sale ban in 2008
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Apple re-testing its prior weekly gap down range from late Summer 22
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And tech is now trading almost as rich as it has ever traded to the overall market...
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P/E ratio back to pre-Covid HIGHS
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The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
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Bloomberg data reveals that IPOs have only managed to raise $2.4 billion in 2023, which is 43% lower than the amou...
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The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, b...
Preferred US stock market leadership view is intact to the Q4-Q1 bear market rally theme.
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Daily chart of NQ is at clear support, needs to hold to remain normal to an ongoing rally situation.
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
If you ever want to short USD, just buy EEM. Inverse EM is USD.
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
SPY inverted H&S test happening and it's for all the marbles... bear market rally test of the highs or the next le...
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Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
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Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
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US equity markets have been - in one veteran trader's words - "an utter shitshow of instant trends and trend-reversal...
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The percentage of assets (sum of equity, bond & money market assets) in money market funds is about ~17%. Goldman'...
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The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
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The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
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NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
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Planet Fitness
hui gold bugs index, monthly chart
HUI is locked and loaded for 500 in next 1-2 years.
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Number nine, number nine, number nine
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
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"Most Shorted" stocks continued their huge squeeze higher, now up 20% from the post-payrolls dip...
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Best of Cramer 2022
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Worst of Cramer 2022
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tsx Venture index, TSX-V
Speculative 'resources' and inflation traders should be aware that da 'V' is still on the 510 Express (gap fill)....
xop/xle ratio of energy sector internals
If you believe in this internal indicator (XOP/XLE ratio) and you're an Energy bull, 'ruh roh!' might be the appropri...
hui gold bugs index ratio to s&p 500 (HUI/SPX ratio)
Gold stock leadership to broad stocks now 4 months along...
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Copper stocks may move. This one is flagging
S&P 500 index, us stock market (SPX)
To antagonize my favorite bearish website... (post link explains more about this imagined bull pattern).
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The Nasdaq is on track for its worst December since 2002..
Ugly Tesla stock chart gap fill coming sooner or laterNotes From...
Anyone for Tesla to 4? That's the implied target of a disgusting H&S. But for now, think about the gap at 81.
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SPY vs. SP… err, TLTNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Trend for stocks (incl. dividends) vs. L/T T bonds (incl. div) still intact. Expecting this to change in Q1/H1, 2023.
m2 money supply
If you are a stock market bull AND you believe there is a correlation between M2 and the SM, you may see the extre...
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Morgan Stanley prediction
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It was the best monthly return for the Dow since Jan 1976
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Will The S&P 500 Hit 2,900 By The End Of The Fed's Tightening Cycle?
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Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/ES not looking good for stocks or the cyclical market view. Not good at all.
Gold in relation to broad US stocks (SPX), fyi… – Notes From...
Gold vs. stocks... not bad, eh?
Does the Copper/Gold ratio look good to you? – Notes From the...
Copper/Gold ratio still plenty bearish for broad markets.
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The "norm S&P 500 PE" closed yesterday at 23.4x— exactly ten points above the median of the last 12 bear market...
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-3.8% quarterly loss - the third negative quarter in a row
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More trillions lost than in the GFC
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60:40 balanced portfolio. YoY rolling 12M price return.
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‘Last inflated man standing’ needs a crutch – Notes From t...
"Last inflated man standing" may be joining the bear fest.
Last ditch for the speculative inflation trades – Notes From t...
Last ditch support for the most speculative 'inflation trade' stuff. Brutally bearish weekly chart.
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What a great, great, great, great day.
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Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
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3rd largest short-covering rally in 10 years
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Hedge Fund Bears Capitulate, Unleashing Biggest Net Buying And Short Covering At Goldman Prime Since May
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AAII bullish sentiment takes another leg higher. We are far from extreme bullishness, but depressed bulls are gone...
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Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential – Notes From t...
Treasury bonds continue to indicate an oncoming contrarian play...
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For four of the last 5 months, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average 0.78% on CPI day...
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New Market leader?
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And for those who think "it can't get any worse"... equity market valuations have only dropped to the same level t...
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes...
Gold continues to pivot vs. more inflation sensitive & cyclical items across the markets.
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Nasdaq Composite is down 30% to start the year - that is the worst start to a year ever, worse than the H1 2002 co...
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S&P was down 21.01% in 1970 H1, we are currently down 21.22% H1... so, according to Bloomberg data, this would be...
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Even more disgusting than nominal XLV is the XLV/SPY ratio, because this ratio rises in bear market and if it gets...
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Want to see a disgusting chart?
Ladies & Gentlemen, meet 3:12 Charlie – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
2:00 Charlie just a bit tardy today...
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