Guide to Patterns
Video Guide to SlopeCharts
Yield Curve Tool
Best Posts of All Time
Books by Tim Knight
Guide to Comments
Profile of Your Host
SlopeBot GPT AI
Watch Slope Videos
Browse Chart Database
Guide to SocialTrade
Hall of Fame
Published Watch Lists
Top Virtual Traders
Best Pages For You
Guide to the Site
Pattern Video Library
SlopeRules System Builder
Video Guide to Slope
Create Free Account
2024 seasonality.png (909×573)
Slope of Hope Logo
Price gap breech on MDB
net long.jpg (450×325)
Equity futures positioning
Despite being within 6% of its highs, the S&P is still in historical bear-market territory.
Shown below are is the performance of the SPX after each 3rd Friday expiration.
Jesus........US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
US equity market continues to decouple higher from the declining trend in bank reserves at The Fed...
fed funds vs spx.jpg (1252×665)
The S&P 500 is now ~3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022...
American now and then
Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
Speaking of NDX, the July seasonals are superb: up 15 of the last 15 for an average return of 4.64%:
horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
6-week trading range in S&P
spx hit rate.jpg (864×657)
breadth very weak MS.jpg (1113×596)
breadth extremely negative.jpg (1103×589)
spx fair value.jpg (882×474)
"Fair value" of the S&P is 3,126
PMI vs SPX.jpg (886×473)
download (47).png (715×432)
US Equity Sentiment Indicator is in stretched territory for the first time since April 2021
download (27)_3.png (775×594)
download (20)_7.png (775×594)
Quarter-End Pension Fund Portfolio Rebalancing: You are now funded. Big equity rebalance for sale:
download (18)_7.png (771×594)
Remember when US futures positioning was short -$510 Billion notional on 9/13/22. It is long $20 Billion today.
Guys, in the end... am I good at micro ? ^^
GS SI indicator.png (715×432)
S&P Positioning Is The "Most Extended Ever"
Now THAT'S some optimism right there!
Very interesting times to say the least
Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
End of an era precursor?
Both can't be right, can't see how it would be possible!
Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble...
median stock fwd pe.jpg (960×601)
The S&P 500 median stock forward P/E is 18.3x (in the top 15% of historical levels back to the mid-1990s;
image - 2023-05-18T125849.253.png (1269×669)
The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
market breadth.jpg (744×445)
It is unusual to have breadth this low.
5 stocks 23% of spx.jpg (643×465)
5 stocks = 23% of S&P 500
The short sale ban in 2008
Apple re-testing its prior weekly gap down range from late Summer 22
And tech is now trading almost as rich as it has ever traded to the overall market...
P/E ratio back to pre-Covid HIGHS
The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
Bloomberg data reveals that IPOs have only managed to raise $2.4 billion in 2023, which is 43% lower than the amou...
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, b...
Preferred US stock market leadership view is intact to the Q4-Q1 bear market rally theme.
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Daily chart of NQ is at clear support, needs to hold to remain normal to an ongoing rally situation.
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
If you ever want to short USD, just buy EEM. Inverse EM is USD.
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
SPY inverted H&S test happening and it's for all the marbles... bear market rally test of the highs or the next le...
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
US equity markets have been - in one veteran trader's words - "an utter shitshow of instant trends and trend-reversal...
unnamed (7)_671.png (700×467)
The percentage of assets (sum of equity, bond & money market assets) in money market funds is about ~17%. Goldman'...
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
hui gold bugs index, monthly chart
HUI is locked and loaded for 500 in next 1-2 years.
Number nine, number nine, number nine
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
"Most Shorted" stocks continued their huge squeeze higher, now up 20% from the post-payrolls dip...
Best of Cramer 2022
Worst of Cramer 2022
tsx Venture index, TSX-V
Speculative 'resources' and inflation traders should be aware that da 'V' is still on the 510 Express (gap fill)....
xop/xle ratio of energy sector internals
If you believe in this internal indicator (XOP/XLE ratio) and you're an Energy bull, 'ruh roh!' might be the appropri...
hui gold bugs index ratio to s&p 500 (HUI/SPX ratio)
Gold stock leadership to broad stocks now 4 months along...
Copper stocks may move. This one is flagging
S&P 500 index, us stock market (SPX)
To antagonize my favorite bearish website... (post link explains more about this imagined bull pattern).
image (68)_0.png (1280×750)
The Nasdaq is on track for its worst December since 2002..
Ugly Tesla stock chart gap fill coming sooner or laterNotes From...
Anyone for Tesla to 4? That's the implied target of a disgusting H&S. But for now, think about the gap at 81.
SPY vs. SP… err, TLTNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Trend for stocks (incl. dividends) vs. L/T T bonds (incl. div) still intact. Expecting this to change in Q1/H1, 2023.
m2 money supply
If you are a stock market bull AND you believe there is a correlation between M2 and the SM, you may see the extre...
bull base bear case ms 2023.jpg (898×584)
Morgan Stanley prediction
It was the best monthly return for the Dow since Jan 1976
Will The S&P 500 Hit 2,900 By The End Of The Fed's Tightening Cycle?
Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/ES not looking good for stocks or the cyclical market view. Not good at all.