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Redefining 60/40 Portfolios | Crescat Capital
Redefining 60/40 Portfolios | Crescat Capital
Tantalus
slopechart_BJK.jpg
slopechart_BJK.jpg
another gambling ETF this one has LVS as its top holding
Baby Bear
slopechart_BETZ.jpg
slopechart_BETZ.jpg
for your gambling needs looks like it was started during the lockdown
Baby Bear
slopechart_WEAT.jpg
slopechart_WEAT.jpg
no more wheaties?
Baby Bear
slopechart_RGLD.jpg
slopechart_RGLD.jpg
Tantalus
Gold: A Far Superior Alternative | Crescat Capital
Gold: A Far Superior Alternative | Crescat Capital
Tantalus
slopechart_MDB.jpg
slopechart_MDB.jpg
Price gap breech on MDB
TN_Cycle
slopechart_SCCO.jpg
slopechart_SCCO.jpg
breakout
Baby Bear
slopechart_/SI.jpg
slopechart_/SI.jpg
Silver
Baby Bear
slopechart_BITO.jpg
slopechart_BITO.jpg
bite-o-wedge
Baby Bear
F1qBup0XsAEhnZA (1179×743)
F1qBup0XsAEhnZA (1179×743)
Tim Knight
slopechart_SLV.jpg
slopechart_SLV.jpg
Slope Future Trend on SLV
Baby Bear
slopechart_GLD.jpg
slopechart_GLD.jpg
Slope Future Trend on GLD
Baby Bear
slopechart_EPOL.jpg
slopechart_EPOL.jpg
Kiss me, I'm Polish - a cool double since Oct
Baby Bear
net long.jpg (450×325)
net long.jpg (450×325)
Equity futures positioning
Tim Knight
2023-07-21_07-35-20.jpg (607×395)
2023-07-21_07-35-20.jpg (607×395)
Despite being within 6% of its highs, the S&P is still in historical bear-market territory.
Tim Knight
2023-07-20_08-52-18.jpg (1065×518)
2023-07-20_08-52-18.jpg (1065×518)
Shown below are is the performance of the SPX after each 3rd Friday expiration.
Tim Knight
1
bfm79DF.jpg (953×577)
bfm79DF.jpg (953×577)
Jesus........US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
Tim Knight
4
bfm73B1.jpg (971×598)
bfm73B1.jpg (971×598)
US equity market continues to decouple higher from the declining trend in bank reserves at The Fed...
Tim Knight
1
fed funds vs spx.jpg (1252×665)
fed funds vs spx.jpg (1252×665)
The S&P 500 is now ~3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022...
Tim Knight
2
RGEG (1).png
RGEG (1).png
American now and then
Silver Singularity
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
Silver Singularity
2
tp16.png (953×563)
tp16.png (953×563)
M2 growth is printing negative for the first time in ~90 years
Tim Knight
1
tp6.png (1280×726)
tp6.png (1280×726)
Speaking of NDX, the July seasonals are superb: up 15 of the last 15 for an average return of 4.64%:
Tim Knight
tp3_0.png (960×672)
tp3_0.png (960×672)
horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
Tim Knight
tp1_0.png (1065×696)
tp1_0.png (1065×696)
6-week trading range in S&P
Tim Knight
SoybeanOil.jpg
SoybeanOil.jpg
Soybean Oil futures (ZL). Price has retraced to H&S neckline. What happens next week? To the moon or towards the e...
Claws
1
spx hit rate.jpg (864×657)
spx hit rate.jpg (864×657)
Tim Knight
1
breadth very weak MS.jpg (1113×596)
breadth very weak MS.jpg (1113×596)
Tim Knight
breadth extremely negative.jpg (1103×589)
breadth extremely negative.jpg (1103×589)
Tim Knight
spx fair value.jpg (882×474)
spx fair value.jpg (882×474)
"Fair value" of the S&P is 3,126
Tim Knight
ERP_2.jpg (887×474)
ERP_2.jpg (887×474)
Tim Knight
PMI vs SPX.jpg (886×473)
PMI vs SPX.jpg (886×473)
Tim Knight
1
download (47).png (715×432)
download (47).png (715×432)
US Equity Sentiment Indicator is in stretched territory for the first time since April 2021
Tim Knight
download (27)_3.png (775×594)
download (27)_3.png (775×594)
Tim Knight
download (20)_7.png (775×594)
download (20)_7.png (775×594)
Quarter-End Pension Fund Portfolio Rebalancing: You are now funded. Big equity rebalance for sale:
Tim Knight
download (18)_7.png (771×594)
download (18)_7.png (771×594)
Remember when US futures positioning was short -$510 Billion notional on 9/13/22. It is long $20 Billion today.
Tim Knight
6JUN20.png
6JUN20.png
Guys, in the end... am I good at micro ? ^^
Silver Singularity
GS SI indicator.png (715×432)
GS SI indicator.png (715×432)
S&P Positioning Is The "Most Extended Ever"
Tim Knight
2
5JUN20.png
5JUN20.png
Now THAT'S some optimism right there!
Silver Singularity
2
4JUN20.png
4JUN20.png
Very interesting times to say the least
Silver Singularity
2
3JUN20.png
3JUN20.png
Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
Silver Singularity
4
1JUN20.png
1JUN20.png
French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
Silver Singularity
1JUN19.png
1JUN19.png
End of an era precursor?
Silver Singularity
3JUN18.jpg
3JUN18.jpg
Silver Singularity
2JUN18.png
2JUN18.png
Both can't be right, can't see how it would be possible!
Silver Singularity
2
1JUN18.png
1JUN18.png
Silver Singularity
7
bfm8206_0.jpg (1023×609)
bfm8206_0.jpg (1023×609)
Tim Knight
746cd2f1b6e9fbb2ab2aa448b0596331.png (1176×553)
746cd2f1b6e9fbb2ab2aa448b0596331.png (1176×553)
Tim Knight
1
bfm37CC_0.jpg (941×543)
bfm37CC_0.jpg (941×543)
Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
Tim Knight
bfm3343.jpg (941×563)
bfm3343.jpg (941×563)
And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
Tim Knight
bfm5A47_1.jpg (941×563)
bfm5A47_1.jpg (941×563)
May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
Tim Knight
4f43962f7b273a22a24c16729a2c9d4c.png (755×355)
4f43962f7b273a22a24c16729a2c9d4c.png (755×355)
45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
Tim Knight
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
hip to be square
Baby Bear
bfm3D59.jpg (938×572)
bfm3D59.jpg (938×572)
Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble...
Tim Knight
median stock fwd pe.jpg (960×601)
median stock fwd pe.jpg (960×601)
The S&P 500 median stock forward P/E is 18.3x (in the top 15% of historical levels back to the mid-1990s;
Tim Knight
image - 2023-05-18T125849.253.png (1269×669)
image - 2023-05-18T125849.253.png (1269×669)
The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
mind the canary
Baby Bear
market breadth.jpg (744×445)
market breadth.jpg (744×445)
It is unusual to have breadth this low.
Tim Knight
1
5 stocks 23% of spx.jpg (643×465)
5 stocks 23% of spx.jpg (643×465)
5 stocks = 23% of S&P 500
Tim Knight
2023-05-08_12-56-40.jpg (500×500)
2023-05-08_12-56-40.jpg (500×500)
The short sale ban in 2008
Tim Knight
slopechart_AAPL.jpg
slopechart_AAPL.jpg
Apple re-testing its prior weekly gap down range from late Summer 22
moneymiser21
2023-04-22_14-02-54.jpg (565×432)
2023-04-22_14-02-54.jpg (565×432)
The U.S. dollar’s share of official global reserve currencies has gone from about 73 per cent in 2001 to around...
Tim Knight
3
Hart 1.png (1280×880)
Hart 1.png (1280×880)
Tim Knight
2
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aef6618d-33c8-4b7e-8457-ae0f37869de7_1199x701.jpeg (1199×701)
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aef6618d...
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_XLP.jpg
slopechart_XLP.jpg
XLP pulling back from trendline resistance
LongRedBars
1
idokxoqh2osa1.png (680×415)
idokxoqh2osa1.png (680×415)
Tim Knight
Sprott gold and silver bullion fund, CEF
Sprott gold and silver bullion fund, CEF
Although the volatility will surely come, the ridiculous discount to NAV that the Sprott Gold & Silver bullion fun...
NFTRH
slopechart_UUP.jpg
slopechart_UUP.jpg
a buck for a rainbow
Baby Bear
bfm9FDE_0.jpg (990×660)
bfm9FDE_0.jpg (990×660)
And tech is now trading almost as rich as it has ever traded to the overall market...
Tim Knight
bfm7343.jpg (990×660)
bfm7343.jpg (990×660)
P/E ratio back to pre-Covid HIGHS
Tim Knight
1
22dde88c3fbc251022513b9265324da6.png (1340×876)
22dde88c3fbc251022513b9265324da6.png (1340×876)
The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
Tim Knight
hn4wgf2i0ppa1.jpg (1542×955)
hn4wgf2i0ppa1.jpg (1542×955)
Tim Knight
A deflationary yield curve steepener
A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
NFTRH
Snag_31e99f4.png (948×617)
Snag_31e99f4.png (948×617)
Bloomberg data reveals that IPOs have only managed to raise $2.4 billion in 2023, which is 43% lower than the amou...
Tim Knight
1
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Tim Knight
Gold/Copper ratio, monthly chart
Gold/Copper ratio, monthly chart
Risk is on copper's side vs. gold. Risk is also against the inflated cyclical macro.
NFTRH
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, broad market stocks (SMH, QQQ, SPY)
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, b...
Preferred US stock market leadership view is intact to the Q4-Q1 bear market rally theme.
NFTRH
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Daily chart of NQ is at clear support, needs to hold to remain normal to an ongoing rally situation.
NFTRH
slopechart_CORN.jpg
slopechart_CORN.jpg
Watch out for your CORN hole
Baby Bear
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
If you ever want to short USD, just buy EEM. Inverse EM is USD.
NFTRH
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
SPY inverted H&S test happening and it's for all the marbles... bear market rally test of the highs or the next le...
NFTRH
1
slopechart_SCCO.jpg
slopechart_SCCO.jpg
Copper top
Baby Bear
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
Junk bonds, support turned into resistance
Baby Bear
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
Tim Knight
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
Tim Knight
2023-02-17_08-05-32_1.jpg (978×579)
2023-02-17_08-05-32_1.jpg (978×579)
Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
Tim Knight
2023-02-17_09-58-14.jpg (569×369)
2023-02-17_09-58-14.jpg (569×369)
Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
Tim Knight
2023-02-15_09-34-32.jpg (1280×890)
2023-02-15_09-34-32.jpg (1280×890)
US equity markets have been - in one veteran trader's words - "an utter shitshow of instant trends and trend-reversal...
Tim Knight
1
unnamed (7)_671.png (700×467)
unnamed (7)_671.png (700×467)
The percentage of assets (sum of equity, bond & money market assets) in money market funds is about ~17%. Goldman'...
Tim Knight
3
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
Tim Knight
unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
Tim Knight
2023-02-14_06-44-49.jpg (805×647)
2023-02-14_06-44-49.jpg (805×647)
Tim Knight
slopechart_$DXY.jpg
slopechart_$DXY.jpg
Dollar back at the 61.8% Fib
Baby Bear
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Commodity/Inflation bulls avert your eyes... or better yet, don't.
NFTRH
GDX Golden Cross: a price paid | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
GDX Golden Cross: a price paid | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Golden Cross in gold stocks resolves EXACTLY as it should have. Same goes in reverse for Death Cross. Also, it's n...
NFTRH
2
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
NFTRH
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
Tim Knight
Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Ra...
If you like a looooong-term base that has turned up then you like the Uranium price.
NFTRH
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._NgnHyr_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._NgnHyr_l.png
Planet Fitness
Petrchio