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Redefining 60/40 Portfolios | Crescat Capital
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another gambling ETF
this one has LVS as its top holding
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for your gambling needs
looks like it was started during the lockdown
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no more wheaties?
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Gold: A Far Superior Alternative | Crescat Capital
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Price gap breech on MDB
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breakout
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Silver
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bite-o-wedge
F1qBup0XsAEhnZA (1179×743)
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Slope Future Trend on SLV
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Slope Future Trend on GLD
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Kiss me, I'm Polish - a cool double since Oct
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Equity futures positioning
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Despite being within 6% of its highs, the S&P is still in historical bear-market territory.
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Shown below are is the performance of the SPX after each 3rd Friday expiration.
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Jesus........US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
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US equity market continues to decouple higher from the declining trend in bank reserves at The Fed...
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The S&P 500 is now ~3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022...
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American now and then
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Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
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M2 growth is printing negative for the first time in ~90 years
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Speaking of NDX, the July seasonals are superb: up 15 of the last 15 for an average return of 4.64%:
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horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
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6-week trading range in S&P
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Soybean Oil futures (ZL). Price has retraced to H&S neckline. What happens next week? To the moon or towards the e...
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"Fair value" of the S&P is 3,126
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US Equity Sentiment Indicator is in stretched territory for the first time since April 2021
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Quarter-End Pension Fund Portfolio Rebalancing: You are now funded. Big equity rebalance for sale:
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Remember when US futures positioning was short -$510 Billion notional on 9/13/22. It is long $20 Billion today.
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Guys, in the end... am I good at micro ? ^^
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S&P Positioning Is The "Most Extended Ever"
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Now THAT'S some optimism right there!
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Very interesting times to say the least
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Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
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French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
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End of an era precursor?
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Both can't be right, can't see how it would be possible!
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Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
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And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
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May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
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45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
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hip to be square
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Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble...
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The S&P 500 median stock forward P/E is 18.3x (in the top 15% of historical levels back to the mid-1990s;
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The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
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mind the canary
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It is unusual to have breadth this low.
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5 stocks = 23% of S&P 500
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The short sale ban in 2008
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Apple re-testing its prior weekly gap down range from late Summer 22
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The U.S. dollar’s share of official global reserve currencies has gone from about 73 per cent in 2001 to around...
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XLP pulling back from trendline resistance
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Sprott gold and silver bullion fund, CEF
Although the volatility will surely come, the ridiculous discount to NAV that the Sprott Gold & Silver bullion fun...
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a buck for a rainbow
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And tech is now trading almost as rich as it has ever traded to the overall market...
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P/E ratio back to pre-Covid HIGHS
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The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
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A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
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Bloomberg data reveals that IPOs have only managed to raise $2.4 billion in 2023, which is 43% lower than the amou...
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The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Gold/Copper ratio, monthly chart
Risk is on copper's side vs. gold. Risk is also against the inflated cyclical macro.
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, b...
Preferred US stock market leadership view is intact to the Q4-Q1 bear market rally theme.
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Daily chart of NQ is at clear support, needs to hold to remain normal to an ongoing rally situation.
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Watch out for your CORN hole
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
If you ever want to short USD, just buy EEM. Inverse EM is USD.
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
SPY inverted H&S test happening and it's for all the marbles... bear market rally test of the highs or the next le...
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Copper top
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Junk bonds, support turned into resistance
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Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
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Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
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US equity markets have been - in one veteran trader's words - "an utter shitshow of instant trends and trend-reversal...
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The percentage of assets (sum of equity, bond & money market assets) in money market funds is about ~17%. Goldman'...
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The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
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The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
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Dollar back at the 61.8% Fib
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Commodity/Inflation bulls avert your eyes... or better yet, don't.
GDX Golden Cross: a price paid | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Golden Cross in gold stocks resolves EXACTLY as it should have. Same goes in reverse for Death Cross. Also, it's n...
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Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
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NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Ra...
If you like a looooong-term base that has turned up then you like the Uranium price.
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