Browse Stacks: Trading: Bonds
T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Curious divergence today as 3 mo. T-bill yield is up, inflation expectations tracker down.
Does this look like inflation? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Does this look like inflation? I didn't think so.
1
Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From th...
Disaster in the making...
slopechart_TLT/(3*XLF).jpg
Long TLT, short XLF is an interesting pairs setup. This ratio has been steadfastly obeying a channel since the GF...
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Ooops!
2
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Continuum... do or die baby! Do or die...
high yield credit spreads
Rising credit spreads not positive for economy (Captain Obvious).
slopechart_TLT.jpg
For what it's worth, TLT stopped to the penny at the 61.8% Fib (from Dec high to recent low).
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | No...
Why is the Fed so aggressively out hawking in the media? Because, this... (they're behind the curve).
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Check out the orange line. Fed jawbones are not kidding. They are listening to what the bond market is DEMANDING o...
slopechart_TLT.jpg
(Manual) TLT Fib projection onto the Dec high, target 120
slopechart_/US.jpg
H& S on the 30yr
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
Inflation expectations take a hit but still aloft.
credit spreads
Credit spreads still tame, which is not bearish.
tyx
Implications of rising long-term yields?
The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this a...
The Fed is not directing markets, but the 2yr yield and indicators like this (credit spreads) most assuredly are...
slopechart_IEF.jpg
7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF breakdown today
1
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Glad I held on to my IEF puts yesterday, although they hit my stop loss level.
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Short term T-Bond fund (7-10 yrs)
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
Bonds vs small caps
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Is next phase inflationary or deflationary? The inverted right side shoulder or lack thereof will tell.
1
tyx
Was today the low in the 30yr yield's right side shoulder? If so, get ready for a change in this week's tone. If n...
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
TLT had it going for a month. Now it could take out 125 by Early June
Continuum to… Continue? | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr yield is breaking a fl...
30 year treasury yield
Recent pullback in yields was in the bag as Gross touted a bond short.
bond bear market_2.jpg (735×576)
3
slopechart_LQD.jpg
LQD has been in a pretty tight range for the last few months, and it made a near perfect lower high the other day....
30 year treasury yield
The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?
5 year inflation rate
The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?
yield curve
If you're gonna get the markets right you gotta get the macro right. Here's one such macro map needed.
slopechart_TIP.jpg
Inflation protected U.S. Treasury bonds hit a new high
1
slopechart_FR:DTWEXBGS.jpg
U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar. Target around 131.
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Headfake?
slopechart_/US.jpg
All Systems Go?
1
slopechart_TIP.jpg
Maybe the party is just getting started?
slopechart_FR:DGS10.jpg
10 year Treasury constant maturity rate. Trouble has been brewing for a while now.
slopechart_$SPX/FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year mouse. If (when) the yield on the 30 year bond goes to zero, then this calculation becomes undefined.
1
30yr 5yr yield curve
30yr-5yr yield curve did tw...
2
Don’t try to (re) build Rome in a day | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Words are necessary here. Deflation. That is a word. Inflation. that is another words. Remember it because it's no...
1
slopechart_FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year treasury yield tries to get back in line
A silly question on market sentiment… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Market sentiment is not risk averse or over bearish. Market sentiment is absolutely 100% TERRIFIED.
bfmF457.jpg (976×511)
Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio... ever...
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Yikes, check out the Japan 10yr yield. Folks, global deflation is probably not the play after this acute scare.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX is finally on the message of the 2 year yield.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
I don't know, it's just a scary chart is all. And it does not even include the Fed's latest plunge back to ZIRP.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX finally cracks as TIP/TLT had foretold well before effing COVID effing 19. This is the lever.
tyx
Powell the effing dove was in the bag even before COVID-19, it's just that he's on steroids now.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Bonds are in full tank mode amid the deflationary rush by the herds... ha ha ha bring on the inflation.
yield curve
Yeah, just another steepening of the curve...
yield curve
Why I do believe we are witnessing a baby yield curve steepener...
Gold’s hidden affinity for Treasury bonds | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A little reminder from the last deflation scare. This is an excerpt from 11/22/08.
tlt
Treasury bonds look like...
tyx
NIRP here we come!
slopechart_VTI/TLT.jpg
Stocks vs. Bonds
1
yield curve
Yield curve steepens to highest point since the summer mini-inversion. Steepener currently deflationary, but can l...
cme fed funds futures
Fed Funds futures...
fed funds rate
Fed Funds and the Business Cycle...
fed funds and financial crises
Fed Funds and historical crises...
fed funds rate
Fed Funds Rate...
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...5XFXtv_l.jpeg
Yield is inverted again
1
yield curve
10/2 yield curve ticks back toward steepening.
1
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._vb5yw1_l.png
Interest rates vs gold
1
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed is out of its comfort box on the downside as it was on the upside in late 2018.
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) expectations.
3 feb14.PNG
30 year treasury yield
The fix is in, unlike in Q4 2018... check the associated post for a big reason why bears are continually played by...
tnx
Say, GYX/Gold curiously going the 'wrong' way. Who's right, it or the 10yr and TIPs ratios? Answer is for all the...
growth worries.jpg (844×620)
1
About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Crash Again? – Technical...
1
tyx
I for one have to ask 'why?'. https://nftrh.com/2019/11/25/casino-patrons-turn-to-the-right/ Beep beep!
bfm6BCE.jpg (976×508)
Until WeWork Bonds are priced at $0, they are overpriced.
slopechart_RINF.jpg
Ooh look! There's an ETF for inflation. Trend is still down overall! ojo
inxg.jpg
TSI on UK index-linked gilts (the inflation play) looks a bit boring. Nice chart though.
2
1 Aug15.PNG
3
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._VJngmw_l.png
She’s inverted sir
1
yield curve
Will this condition hold to close the week? If it does and if the yield curve steepens, better have a plan for an...
1
2 year yield, spx, fed funds
The mother of all bond charts shows that the stock market is in massive trouble if the last 2 occurrences are good...
1
30 year bond cot
As for the long bond's CoT, the little guy (bottom panel) is as bullish now as he was bearish in Q4. Dat's un-bullish.
30 year bond optix
Public optimism rising on the long bond. Getting contrary bearish.
tyx
Remember the Q4 2018 "BOND BEAR!!!" hysteria? Now, not so much.
1
tyx
Not long ago the Fed became concerned about the breakout in long bond yields. Now? Err, not so much.
tnx
2018's inflationary pressure gives way to 2019's deflationary pressure.
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Yield hogs gobbling up junk in anticipation of much lower interest rates ahead?
slopechart_TIP/IEF.jpg
The Fed might look at this and see no inflation - so they start cutting again (sooner rather than later)
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So, is the 2yr/SPX relationship going to get back in line (stocks tank) or is SPX right again, as it was in 2016?
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Why was the Fed hawkish in Q4 despite an imploding stock market and dovish now despite a manic bullish one? Simple...
2 year yield and yield curve
2yr yield has been leading the dovish Fed while the yield curve gets peppy as it did into late Sept.
slopechart_TLT/GLD.jpg
Cui Bono?
tlt-testing-resistance-and-creating-a-bearish-reversal-march-26....
weekly.jpg
Breakout of UK index linked gilts less than 1.5 weeks to Brexit deadline. Had assumed that there would be a breako...
slopechart_TBT.jpg
TBT trending up
1
9 feb17.PNG
5 feb17.PNG
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Nice fit since the taper tantrum / end of Operation Twist
1
2019-02-10_8-38-33.jpg (890×439)
slopechart_SHV.jpg
Fear Factor?
3
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Junk also tapping new highs - non-confirming OBV
slopechart_BND.jpg
Tapping new highs - confirming OBV