Browse Stacks: Trading: Bonds

LQD has been in a pretty tight range for the last few months, and it made a near perfect lower high the other day....

The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?

The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?

If you're gonna get the markets right you gotta get the macro right. Here's one such macro map needed.

Inflation protected U.S. Treasury bonds hit a new high

U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar. Target around 131.

Headfake?

All Systems Go?

Maybe the party is just getting started?

10 year Treasury constant maturity rate. Trouble has been brewing for a while now.

30 year mouse. If (when) the yield on the 30 year bond goes to zero, then this calculation becomes undefined.

30yr-5yr yield curve did tw...

Words are necessary here. Deflation. That is a word. Inflation. that is another words. Remember it because it's no...

30 year treasury yield tries to get back in line

Market sentiment is not risk averse or over bearish. Market sentiment is absolutely 100% TERRIFIED.

Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio... ever...

Yikes, check out the Japan 10yr yield. Folks, global deflation is probably not the play after this acute scare.

SPX is finally on the message of the 2 year yield.

I don't know, it's just a scary chart is all. And it does not even include the Fed's latest plunge back to ZIRP.

SPX finally cracks as TIP/TLT had foretold well before effing COVID effing 19. This is the lever.

Powell the effing dove was in the bag even before COVID-19, it's just that he's on steroids now.

Bonds are in full tank mode amid the deflationary rush by the herds... ha ha ha bring on the inflation.

Yeah, just another steepening of the curve...

Why I do believe we are witnessing a baby yield curve steepener...

A little reminder from the last deflation scare. This is an excerpt from 11/22/08.

Treasury bonds look like...

NIRP here we come!

Stocks vs. Bonds

Yield curve steepens to highest point since the summer mini-inversion. Steepener currently deflationary, but can l...

Fed Funds futures...

Fed Funds and the Business Cycle...

Fed Funds and historical crises...

Fed Funds Rate...

Yield is inverted again

10/2 yield curve ticks back toward steepening.

Interest rates vs gold

Fed is out of its comfort box on the downside as it was on the upside in late 2018.

Inflation (lack of) expectations.

The fix is in, unlike in Q4 2018... check the associated post for a big reason why bears are continually played by...

Say, GYX/Gold curiously going the 'wrong' way. Who's right, it or the 10yr and TIPs ratios? Answer is for all the...

I for one have to ask 'why?'. https://nftrh.com/2019/11/25/casino-patrons-turn-to-the-right/ Beep beep!

Until WeWork Bonds are priced at $0, they are overpriced.

Ooh look! There's an ETF for inflation. Trend is still down overall! ojo

TSI on UK index-linked gilts (the inflation play) looks a bit boring. Nice chart though.

She’s inverted sir

Will this condition hold to close the week? If it does and if the yield curve steepens, better have a plan for an...

The mother of all bond charts shows that the stock market is in massive trouble if the last 2 occurrences are good...

As for the long bond's CoT, the little guy (bottom panel) is as bullish now as he was bearish in Q4. Dat's un-bullish.

Public optimism rising on the long bond. Getting contrary bearish.

Remember the Q4 2018 "BOND BEAR!!!" hysteria? Now, not so much.

Not long ago the Fed became concerned about the breakout in long bond yields. Now? Err, not so much.

2018's inflationary pressure gives way to 2019's deflationary pressure.

Yield hogs gobbling up junk in anticipation of much lower interest rates ahead?

The Fed might look at this and see no inflation - so they start cutting again (sooner rather than later)

So, is the 2yr/SPX relationship going to get back in line (stocks tank) or is SPX right again, as it was in 2016?

Why was the Fed hawkish in Q4 despite an imploding stock market and dovish now despite a manic bullish one? Simple...

2yr yield has been leading the dovish Fed while the yield curve gets peppy as it did into late Sept.

Cui Bono?

Breakout of UK index linked gilts less than 1.5 weeks to Brexit deadline. Had assumed that there would be a breako...

TBT trending up

Nice fit since the taper tantrum / end of Operation Twist

Fear Factor?

Junk also tapping new highs - non-confirming OBV

Tapping new highs - confirming OBV

No more rate increases as far as the eye can see...

The real reason Powell rolled over? Not Trump, not the market correction. It was the 2 year yield stupid.

Commercial Mortgages Beta: -.04

The end of quantitative tightening, qe in perpituity next?

Head fake? 4.4% yield

Boom/bust indicator (yield curve) still flattens (w/ boom), but risk is high at this extended point.

Tell me again about that bond bear market? Eh? All I hear now is crickets.

Mortgages & The Middle East: Fannie & Freddie(57%), Israel (9%), Iraq (6%)

The Face of Fear

So, the Continuum holds again. Fed was not going to let it get away. Will TYX find a low soon?

Here is a snap of my Junk. The blue trendline is from the Armageddon lows.

Continuum back below the limiter and all is right with the world. Bond bears BANISHED. BBB...

Triple treasury bear

If this is the "Big One" for stocks, we might see Treasury yields on both 10 and 30 year paper sporting handles th...

Treasury market is multiples bigger than stocks

About that bond bear market... inflation expectations in the tank.

About that bond bear market... The Continuum back below the limiter...

About that bond bear market... herds running risk 'off' drives yields down, bonds up.

Flight to Quantity

Inverted yield curve predicting recessions

Don't look now but 30yr yield has failed back below the limiter. Either inflationary or deflationary steepening co...

Yield curve all over the news... DOOOOM!!! But it has not yet begun to steepen. Look elsewhere for doom right now...

Credit spreads - while still very low - break out of bottoming range.

Macro Tourist's history of first cuts...

Gold vs. Junk bonds is on its way to a counter-cyclical condition.

Picture of SPX over valuation. SPX dividend yield of 1.92% vs. 10yr T note yielding 3.2%!