Browse Stacks: Trading: Bonds


slopechart_TIP.jpg
slopechart_TIP.jpg
Inflation protected U.S. Treasury bonds hit a new high
Professor Doomfinger
1
slopechart_FR:DTWEXBGS.jpg
slopechart_FR:DTWEXBGS.jpg
U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar. Target around 131.
Professor Doomfinger
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Headfake?
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_/US.jpg
slopechart_/US.jpg
All Systems Go?
Professor Doomfinger
1
slopechart_TIP.jpg
slopechart_TIP.jpg
Maybe the party is just getting started?
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_FR:DGS10.jpg
slopechart_FR:DGS10.jpg
10 year Treasury constant maturity rate. Trouble has been brewing for a while now.
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_$SPX/FR:DGS30.jpg
slopechart_$SPX/FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year mouse. If (when) the yield on the 30 year bond goes to zero, then this calculation becomes undefined.
Professor Doomfinger
1
30yr 5yr yield curve
30yr 5yr yield curve
30yr-5yr yield curve did tw...
NFTRH
2
Don’t try to (re) build Rome in a day | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Don’t try to (re) build Rome in a day | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Words are necessary here. Deflation. That is a word. Inflation. that is another words. Remember it because it's no...
NFTRH
1
slopechart_FR:DGS30.jpg
slopechart_FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year treasury yield tries to get back in line
Professor Doomfinger
A silly question on market sentiment… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A silly question on market sentiment… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Market sentiment is not risk averse or over bearish. Market sentiment is absolutely 100% TERRIFIED.
NFTRH
bfmF457.jpg (976×511)
bfmF457.jpg (976×511)
Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio... ever...
Tim Knight
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Yikes, check out the Japan 10yr yield. Folks, global deflation is probably not the play after this acute scare.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX is finally on the message of the 2 year yield.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
I don't know, it's just a scary chart is all. And it does not even include the Fed's latest plunge back to ZIRP.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX finally cracks as TIP/TLT had foretold well before effing COVID effing 19. This is the lever.
NFTRH
tyx
tyx
Powell the effing dove was in the bag even before COVID-19, it's just that he's on steroids now.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Bonds are in full tank mode amid the deflationary rush by the herds... ha ha ha bring on the inflation.
NFTRH
yield curve
yield curve
Yeah, just another steepening of the curve...
NFTRH
yield curve
yield curve
Why I do believe we are witnessing a baby yield curve steepener...
NFTRH
Gold’s hidden affinity for Treasury bonds | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold’s hidden affinity for Treasury bonds | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A little reminder from the last deflation scare. This is an excerpt from 11/22/08.
NFTRH
tlt
tlt
Treasury bonds look like...
NFTRH
tyx
tyx
NIRP here we come!
NFTRH
slopechart_VTI/TLT.jpg
slopechart_VTI/TLT.jpg
Stocks vs. Bonds
Professor Doomfinger
1
yield curve
yield curve
Yield curve steepens to highest point since the summer mini-inversion. Steepener currently deflationary, but can l...
NFTRH
cme fed funds futures
cme fed funds futures
Fed Funds futures...
NFTRH
fed funds rate
fed funds rate
Fed Funds and the Business Cycle...
NFTRH
fed funds and financial crises
fed funds and financial crises
Fed Funds and historical crises...
NFTRH
fed funds rate
fed funds rate
Fed Funds Rate...
NFTRH
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...5XFXtv_l.jpeg
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...5XFXtv_l.jpeg
Yield is inverted again
Orwell (Director)
1
yield curve
yield curve
10/2 yield curve ticks back toward steepening.
NFTRH
1
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._vb5yw1_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._vb5yw1_l.png
Interest rates vs gold
Orwell (Director)
1
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed is out of its comfort box on the downside as it was on the upside in late 2018.
NFTRH
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) expectations.
NFTRH
3 feb14.PNG
3 feb14.PNG
Silver Singularity
30 year treasury yield
30 year treasury yield
The fix is in, unlike in Q4 2018... check the associated post for a big reason why bears are continually played by...
NFTRH
tnx
tnx
Say, GYX/Gold curiously going the 'wrong' way. Who's right, it or the 10yr and TIPs ratios? Answer is for all the...
NFTRH
growth worries.jpg (844×620)
growth worries.jpg (844×620)
Tim Knight
1
About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Crash Again? – Technical Traders Ltd.
About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Crash Again? – Technical...
Chris Vermeulen
1
tyx
tyx
I for one have to ask 'why?'. https://nftrh.com/2019/11/25/casino-patrons-turn-to-the-right/ Beep beep!
NFTRH
bfm6BCE.jpg (976×508)
bfm6BCE.jpg (976×508)
Until WeWork Bonds are priced at $0, they are overpriced.
Tim Knight
slopechart_RINF.jpg
slopechart_RINF.jpg
Ooh look! There's an ETF for inflation. Trend is still down overall! ojo
Claws
inxg.jpg
inxg.jpg
TSI on UK index-linked gilts (the inflation play) looks a bit boring. Nice chart though.
Claws
2
1  Aug15.PNG
1 Aug15.PNG
Silver Singularity
3
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._VJngmw_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._VJngmw_l.png
She’s inverted sir
Orwell (Director)
1
yield curve
yield curve
Will this condition hold to close the week? If it does and if the yield curve steepens, better have a plan for an...
NFTRH
1
2 year yield, spx, fed funds
2 year yield, spx, fed funds
The mother of all bond charts shows that the stock market is in massive trouble if the last 2 occurrences are good...
NFTRH
1
30 year bond cot
30 year bond cot
As for the long bond's CoT, the little guy (bottom panel) is as bullish now as he was bearish in Q4. Dat's un-bullish.
NFTRH
30 year bond optix
30 year bond optix
Public optimism rising on the long bond. Getting contrary bearish.
NFTRH
tyx
tyx
Remember the Q4 2018 "BOND BEAR!!!" hysteria? Now, not so much.
NFTRH
1
tyx
tyx
Not long ago the Fed became concerned about the breakout in long bond yields. Now? Err, not so much.
NFTRH
tnx
tnx
2018's inflationary pressure gives way to 2019's deflationary pressure.
NFTRH
slopechart_JNK.jpg
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Yield hogs gobbling up junk in anticipation of much lower interest rates ahead?
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_TIP/IEF.jpg
slopechart_TIP/IEF.jpg
The Fed might look at this and see no inflation - so they start cutting again (sooner rather than later)
Professor Doomfinger
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So, is the 2yr/SPX relationship going to get back in line (stocks tank) or is SPX right again, as it was in 2016?
NFTRH
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Why was the Fed hawkish in Q4 despite an imploding stock market and dovish now despite a manic bullish one? Simple...
NFTRH
2 year yield and yield curve
2 year yield and yield curve
2yr yield has been leading the dovish Fed while the yield curve gets peppy as it did into late Sept.
NFTRH
slopechart_TLT/GLD.jpg
slopechart_TLT/GLD.jpg
Cui Bono?
Professor Doomfinger
tlt-testing-resistance-and-creating-a-bearish-reversal-march-26.jpg (1266×636)
tlt-testing-resistance-and-creating-a-bearish-reversal-march-26....
Tim Knight
weekly.jpg
weekly.jpg
Breakout of UK index linked gilts less than 1.5 weeks to Brexit deadline. Had assumed that there would be a breako...
Claws
slopechart_TBT.jpg
slopechart_TBT.jpg
TBT trending up
Baby Bear
1
9 feb17.PNG
9 feb17.PNG
Silver Singularity
5 feb17.PNG
5 feb17.PNG
Silver Singularity
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Nice fit since the taper tantrum / end of Operation Twist
Professor Doomfinger
1
2019-02-10_8-38-33.jpg (890×439)
2019-02-10_8-38-33.jpg (890×439)
Tim Knight
slopechart_SHV.jpg
slopechart_SHV.jpg
Fear Factor?
Professor Doomfinger
3
slopechart_JNK.jpg
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Junk also tapping new highs - non-confirming OBV
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_BND.jpg
slopechart_BND.jpg
Tapping new highs - confirming OBV
Professor Doomfinger
1 feb5.PNG
1 feb5.PNG
Silver Singularity
slopechart_BND.jpg
slopechart_BND.jpg
No more rate increases as far as the eye can see...
Professor Doomfinger
1
A Talky Bond Yield Chart With a Story to Tell – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A Talky Bond Yield Chart With a Story to Tell – Notes From the...
The real reason Powell rolled over? Not Trump, not the market correction. It was the 2 year yield stupid.
NFTRH
slopechart_CMBS.jpg
slopechart_CMBS.jpg
Commercial Mortgages Beta: -.04
Professor Doomfinger
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._c94bIU_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._c94bIU_l.png
The end of quantitative tightening, qe in perpituity next?
Orwell (Director)
slopechart_EIM.jpg
slopechart_EIM.jpg
Head fake? 4.4% yield
Professor Doomfinger
maturity wall investment grade BNP.jpg (745×460)
maturity wall investment grade BNP.jpg (745×460)
Tim Knight
yield curve
yield curve
Boom/bust indicator (yield curve) still flattens (w/ boom), but risk is high at this extended point.
NFTRH
1
30 year yield
30 year yield
Tell me again about that bond bear market? Eh? All I hear now is crickets.
NFTRH
slopechart_AGZ.jpg
slopechart_AGZ.jpg
Mortgages & The Middle East: Fannie & Freddie(57%), Israel (9%), Iraq (6%)
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_SHY.jpg
slopechart_SHY.jpg
The Face of Fear
Professor Doomfinger
Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls? – Not...
So, the Continuum holds again. Fed was not going to let it get away. Will TYX find a low soon?
NFTRH
1
slopechart_JNK.jpg
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Here is a snap of my Junk. The blue trendline is from the Armageddon lows.
Professor Doomfinger
FOMC at Center Stage (NFTRH 530 excerpt) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
FOMC at Center Stage (NFTRH 530 excerpt) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Continuum back below the limiter and all is right with the world. Bond bears BANISHED. BBB...
NFTRH
slopechart_TMV.jpg
slopechart_TMV.jpg
Triple treasury bear
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
If this is the "Big One" for stocks, we might see Treasury yields on both 10 and 30 year paper sporting handles th...
Professor Doomfinger
slopechart_IEI.jpg
slopechart_IEI.jpg
Treasury market is multiples bigger than stocks
Professor Doomfinger
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... inflation expectations in the tank.
NFTRH
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... The Continuum back below the limiter...
NFTRH
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... herds running risk 'off' drives yields down, bonds up.
NFTRH
1
slopechart_BND.jpg
slopechart_BND.jpg
Flight to Quantity
Professor Doomfinger
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._HoOihm_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._HoOihm_l.png
Inverted yield curve predicting recessions
Orwell (Director)
2
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Don't look now but 30yr yield has failed back below the limiter. Either inflationary or deflationary steepening co...
NFTRH
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Yield curve all over the news... DOOOOM!!! But it has not yet begun to steepen. Look elsewhere for doom right now...
NFTRH
Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018 – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018 – No robo-content, no...
Credit spreads - while still very low - break out of bottoming range.
NFTRH
A History of First Cuts – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
A History of First Cuts – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
Macro Tourist's history of first cuts...
NFTRH
gld.hyg
gld.hyg
Gold vs. Junk bonds is on its way to a counter-cyclical condition.
NFTRH
A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation...
Picture of SPX over valuation. SPX dividend yield of 1.92% vs. 10yr T note yielding 3.2%!
NFTRH
2 year yield & t bills
2 year yield & t bills
Condition to 2000 & 2007 tops not yet in place. That's the relationship between 2yr yield & 3 mo. t-bill.
NFTRH
junk-bonds-spy-divergence-testing-9-year-support-at-the-same-time-nov-5.jpg (1568×730)
junk-bonds-spy-divergence-testing-9-year-support-at-the-same-time-n...
Tim Knight
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...QbudNA_l.jpeg
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...QbudNA_l.jpeg
Tlt droppiing
Orwell (Director)
America is Not an Economic Island – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
America is Not an Economic Island – No robo-content, no ads an...
Macro Tourist, maker of the funniest graphics in finance.
NFTRH
1