Browse Stacks: Trading: Bonds


slopechart_RINF.jpg
slopechart_RINF.jpg
Ooh look! There's an ETF for inflation. Trend is still down overall! ojo
Claws
inxg.jpg
inxg.jpg
TSI on UK index-linked gilts (the inflation play) looks a bit boring. Nice chart though.
Claws
2
1  Aug15.PNG
1 Aug15.PNG
Silver Singularity
3
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._VJngmw_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._VJngmw_l.png
She’s inverted sir
The Director
1
yield curve
yield curve
Will this condition hold to close the week? If it does and if the yield curve steepens, better have a plan for an...
NFTRH
1
2 year yield, spx, fed funds
2 year yield, spx, fed funds
The mother of all bond charts shows that the stock market is in massive trouble if the last 2 occurrences are good...
NFTRH
1
30 year bond cot
30 year bond cot
As for the long bond's CoT, the little guy (bottom panel) is as bullish now as he was bearish in Q4. Dat's un-bullish.
NFTRH
30 year bond optix
30 year bond optix
Public optimism rising on the long bond. Getting contrary bearish.
NFTRH
tyx
tyx
Remember the Q4 2018 "BOND BEAR!!!" hysteria? Now, not so much.
NFTRH
1
tyx
tyx
Not long ago the Fed became concerned about the breakout in long bond yields. Now? Err, not so much.
NFTRH
tnx
tnx
2018's inflationary pressure gives way to 2019's deflationary pressure.
NFTRH
slopechart_JNK.jpg
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Yield hogs gobbling up junk in anticipation of much lower interest rates ahead?
GeraLD
slopechart_TIP/IEF.jpg
slopechart_TIP/IEF.jpg
The Fed might look at this and see no inflation - so they start cutting again (sooner rather than later)
GeraLD
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So, is the 2yr/SPX relationship going to get back in line (stocks tank) or is SPX right again, as it was in 2016?
NFTRH
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Why was the Fed hawkish in Q4 despite an imploding stock market and dovish now despite a manic bullish one? Simple...
NFTRH
2 year yield and yield curve
2 year yield and yield curve
2yr yield has been leading the dovish Fed while the yield curve gets peppy as it did into late Sept.
NFTRH
slopechart_TLT/GLD.jpg
slopechart_TLT/GLD.jpg
Cui Bono?
GeraLD
tlt-testing-resistance-and-creating-a-bearish-reversal-march-26.jpg (1266×636)
tlt-testing-resistance-and-creating-a-bearish-reversal-march-26....
Tim Knight
weekly.jpg
weekly.jpg
Breakout of UK index linked gilts less than 1.5 weeks to Brexit deadline. Had assumed that there would be a breako...
Claws
slopechart_TBT.jpg
slopechart_TBT.jpg
TBT trending up
Baby Bear
1
9 feb17.PNG
9 feb17.PNG
Silver Singularity
5 feb17.PNG
5 feb17.PNG
Silver Singularity
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Nice fit since the taper tantrum / end of Operation Twist
GeraLD
1
2019-02-10_8-38-33.jpg (890×439)
2019-02-10_8-38-33.jpg (890×439)
Tim Knight
slopechart_SHV.jpg
slopechart_SHV.jpg
Fear Factor?
GeraLD
3
slopechart_JNK.jpg
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Junk also tapping new highs - non-confirming OBV
GeraLD
slopechart_BND.jpg
slopechart_BND.jpg
Tapping new highs - confirming OBV
GeraLD
1 feb5.PNG
1 feb5.PNG
Silver Singularity
slopechart_BND.jpg
slopechart_BND.jpg
No more rate increases as far as the eye can see...
GeraLD
1
A Talky Bond Yield Chart With a Story to Tell – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A Talky Bond Yield Chart With a Story to Tell – Notes From the...
The real reason Powell rolled over? Not Trump, not the market correction. It was the 2 year yield stupid.
NFTRH
slopechart_CMBS.jpg
slopechart_CMBS.jpg
Commercial Mortgages Beta: -.04
GeraLD
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._c94bIU_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._c94bIU_l.png
The end of quantitative tightening, qe in perpituity next?
The Director
slopechart_EIM.jpg
slopechart_EIM.jpg
Head fake? 4.4% yield
GeraLD
maturity wall investment grade BNP.jpg (745×460)
maturity wall investment grade BNP.jpg (745×460)
Tim Knight
yield curve
yield curve
Boom/bust indicator (yield curve) still flattens (w/ boom), but risk is high at this extended point.
NFTRH
1
30 year yield
30 year yield
Tell me again about that bond bear market? Eh? All I hear now is crickets.
NFTRH
slopechart_AGZ.jpg
slopechart_AGZ.jpg
Mortgages & The Middle East: Fannie & Freddie(57%), Israel (9%), Iraq (6%)
GeraLD
slopechart_SHY.jpg
slopechart_SHY.jpg
The Face of Fear
GeraLD
Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls? – Not...
So, the Continuum holds again. Fed was not going to let it get away. Will TYX find a low soon?
NFTRH
1
slopechart_JNK.jpg
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Here is a snap of my Junk. The blue trendline is from the Armageddon lows.
GeraLD
FOMC at Center Stage (NFTRH 530 excerpt) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
FOMC at Center Stage (NFTRH 530 excerpt) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Continuum back below the limiter and all is right with the world. Bond bears BANISHED. BBB...
NFTRH
slopechart_TMV.jpg
slopechart_TMV.jpg
Triple treasury bear
GeraLD
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
If this is the "Big One" for stocks, we might see Treasury yields on both 10 and 30 year paper sporting handles th...
GeraLD
slopechart_IEI.jpg
slopechart_IEI.jpg
Treasury market is multiples bigger than stocks
GeraLD
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... inflation expectations in the tank.
NFTRH
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... The Continuum back below the limiter...
NFTRH
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... herds running risk 'off' drives yields down, bonds up.
NFTRH
1
slopechart_BND.jpg
slopechart_BND.jpg
Flight to Quantity
GeraLD
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._HoOihm_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._HoOihm_l.png
Inverted yield curve predicting recessions
The Director
2
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Don't look now but 30yr yield has failed back below the limiter. Either inflationary or deflationary steepening co...
NFTRH
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Yield curve all over the news... DOOOOM!!! But it has not yet begun to steepen. Look elsewhere for doom right now...
NFTRH
Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018 – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018 – No robo-content, no...
Credit spreads - while still very low - break out of bottoming range.
NFTRH
A History of First Cuts – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
A History of First Cuts – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
Macro Tourist's history of first cuts...
NFTRH
gld.hyg
gld.hyg
Gold vs. Junk bonds is on its way to a counter-cyclical condition.
NFTRH
A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation...
Picture of SPX over valuation. SPX dividend yield of 1.92% vs. 10yr T note yielding 3.2%!
NFTRH
2 year yield & t bills
2 year yield & t bills
Condition to 2000 & 2007 tops not yet in place. That's the relationship between 2yr yield & 3 mo. t-bill.
NFTRH
junk-bonds-spy-divergence-testing-9-year-support-at-the-same-time-nov-5.jpg (1568×730)
junk-bonds-spy-divergence-testing-9-year-support-at-the-same-time-n...
Tim Knight
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...QbudNA_l.jpeg
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...QbudNA_l.jpeg
Tlt droppiing
The Director
America is Not an Economic Island – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
America is Not an Economic Island – No robo-content, no ads an...
Macro Tourist, maker of the funniest graphics in finance.
NFTRH
1
The Long Finger of Doom
The Long Finger of Doom
Long Bond Love You Long Time
GeraLD
20Y_TLT_101318.PNG
20Y_TLT_101318.PNG
$TLT approaching 20 year VWAP
MississippiMan
2018-10-03_7-51-10_0.jpg (890×473)
2018-10-03_7-51-10_0.jpg (890×473)
Tim Knight
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._Ctleb5_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._Ctleb5_l.png
TLT combo
The Director
1
10-year-yield-could-be-creating-a-topping-pattern-aug-28.jpg (1568×731)
10-year...
Tim Knight
Imgur: The magic of the Internet
Imgur: The magic of the Internet
As Fed continues with rate hikes, the yield curve continues to flatten. Spreads on 10-2y reach lowest point of t...
dime
1 aug22.png
1 aug22.png
Silver Singularity
4 aug21.PNG
4 aug21.PNG
Silver Singularity
1 aug9.PNG
1 aug9.PNG
Silver Singularity
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._nXu6Zk_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._nXu6Zk_l.png
Likely steepening. Of yield curve with drop in crude soon
The Director
1 aug6.PNG
1 aug6.PNG
Silver Singularity
2 aug2.PNG
2 aug2.PNG
Silver Singularity
7 aug1.PNG
7 aug1.PNG
Silver Singularity
2
6 aug1.PNG
6 aug1.PNG
Silver Singularity
nVA8Dfue (1243×704)
nVA8Dfue (1243×704)
Calm before the storm: 10-year Treasury yield in the smallest weekly trading range since before 1980.
dime
Treasury Short Bets May Be on Borrowed Time - Bloomberg
Treasury Short Bets May Be on Borrowed Time - Bloomberg
hedge-fund managers and large speculators boost 10-year note short positions to a record levels
dime
s5jV4r4.png (1051×523)
s5jV4r4.png (1051×523)
Central bank purchases are shrinking and projected to turn negative by 2019. QT is considered by many fund mana...
dime
1
Moscow Mystery: Where Did All Its Treasuries Go? - Bloomberg Quint
Moscow Mystery: Where Did All Its Treasuries Go? - Bloomberg Quint
Treasury reported that Russia is no longer a “major foreign holder” of U.S. government securities after dumpin...
dime
1 july18.PNG
1 july18.PNG
Silver Singularity
3
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._xDyorx_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._xDyorx_l.png
The Director
2
BofA's "Charts Of Darkness" | Zero Hedge
BofA's "Charts Of Darkness" | Zero Hedge
2-10y T yield spread and recessions
dime
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
Risk on rally in junk for June! HYG currently pays a 30 day yield of 5.76% on fund holdings rated BB grade and und...
dime
2
6 june15.PNG
6 june15.PNG
Silver Singularity
3 june15.PNG
3 june15.PNG
Silver Singularity
12 june13.PNG
12 june13.PNG
Silver Singularity
8 june13.PNG
8 june13.PNG
Silver Singularity
2
zI9TDgZE (1440×701)
zI9TDgZE (1440×701)
Chart showing the flattening Treasury yield spreads of the 10-2 and 30-5. At this rate the curve could flatten...
dime
MBy5dqWF (1148×701)
MBy5dqWF (1148×701)
This log chart compares the Gold price (USD) to the short term 2 year Treasury yield. Since gold has no yield is i...
dime
1
9yQCN5yB (1148×701)
9yQCN5yB (1148×701)
ratio of Gold price to 30 year Treasury yield
dime
1 june2.PNG
1 june2.PNG
Silver Singularity
1
4 may30.PNG
4 may30.PNG
Silver Singularity
1 may30.PNG
1 may30.PNG
Silver Singularity
4 may23.PNG
4 may23.PNG
Nooooo... who could have seen it coming?!
Silver Singularity
6 may21,.PNG
6 may21,.PNG
Silver Singularity
1 may21.PNG
1 may21.PNG
Silver Singularity
13 may18.PNG
13 may18.PNG
Silver Singularity
11 may18.PNG
11 may18.PNG
Silver Singularity
9 may18,.PNG
9 may18,.PNG
Silver Singularity
1 may18,.PNG
1 may18,.PNG
Silver Singularity
1
10 may17.PNG
10 may17.PNG
Silver Singularity
7 may17.PNG
7 may17.PNG
#end of the tightening cycle?
Silver Singularity