Browse Stacks: Trading: Bonds
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Ooh look! There's an ETF for inflation. Trend is still down overall! ojo
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TSI on UK index-linked gilts (the inflation play) looks a bit boring. Nice chart though.
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She’s inverted sir
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yield curve
Will this condition hold to close the week? If it does and if the yield curve steepens, better have a plan for an...
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2 year yield, spx, fed funds
The mother of all bond charts shows that the stock market is in massive trouble if the last 2 occurrences are good...
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30 year bond cot
As for the long bond's CoT, the little guy (bottom panel) is as bullish now as he was bearish in Q4. Dat's un-bullish.
30 year bond optix
Public optimism rising on the long bond. Getting contrary bearish.
tyx
Remember the Q4 2018 "BOND BEAR!!!" hysteria? Now, not so much.
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tyx
Not long ago the Fed became concerned about the breakout in long bond yields. Now? Err, not so much.
tnx
2018's inflationary pressure gives way to 2019's deflationary pressure.
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Yield hogs gobbling up junk in anticipation of much lower interest rates ahead?
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The Fed might look at this and see no inflation - so they start cutting again (sooner rather than later)
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So, is the 2yr/SPX relationship going to get back in line (stocks tank) or is SPX right again, as it was in 2016?
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Why was the Fed hawkish in Q4 despite an imploding stock market and dovish now despite a manic bullish one? Simple...
2 year yield and yield curve
2yr yield has been leading the dovish Fed while the yield curve gets peppy as it did into late Sept.
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Cui Bono?
tlt-testing-resistance-and-creating-a-bearish-reversal-march-26....
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Breakout of UK index linked gilts less than 1.5 weeks to Brexit deadline. Had assumed that there would be a breako...
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TBT trending up
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Nice fit since the taper tantrum / end of Operation Twist
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Fear Factor?
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slopechart_JNK.jpg
Junk also tapping new highs - non-confirming OBV
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Tapping new highs - confirming OBV
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slopechart_BND.jpg
No more rate increases as far as the eye can see...
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A Talky Bond Yield Chart With a Story to Tell – Notes From the...
The real reason Powell rolled over? Not Trump, not the market correction. It was the 2 year yield stupid.
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Commercial Mortgages
Beta: -.04
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The end of quantitative tightening, qe in perpituity next?
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Head fake? 4.4% yield
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yield curve
Boom/bust indicator (yield curve) still flattens (w/ boom), but risk is high at this extended point.
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30 year yield
Tell me again about that bond bear market? Eh? All I hear now is crickets.
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Mortgages & The Middle East: Fannie & Freddie(57%), Israel (9%), Iraq (6%)
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The Face of Fear
Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls? – Not...
So, the Continuum holds again. Fed was not going to let it get away. Will TYX find a low soon?
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slopechart_JNK.jpg
Here is a snap of my Junk. The blue trendline is from the Armageddon lows.
FOMC at Center Stage (NFTRH 530 excerpt) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Continuum back below the limiter and all is right with the world. Bond bears BANISHED. BBB...
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Triple treasury bear
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If this is the "Big One" for stocks, we might see Treasury yields on both 10 and 30 year paper sporting handles th...
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Treasury market is multiples bigger than stocks
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... inflation expectations in the tank.
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... The Continuum back below the limiter...
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... herds running risk 'off' drives yields down, bonds up.
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Flight to Quantity
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Inverted yield curve predicting recessions
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“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Don't look now but 30yr yield has failed back below the limiter. Either inflationary or deflationary steepening co...
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Yield curve all over the news... DOOOOM!!! But it has not yet begun to steepen. Look elsewhere for doom right now...
Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018 – No robo-content, no...
Credit spreads - while still very low - break out of bottoming range.
A History of First Cuts – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
Macro Tourist's history of first cuts...
gld.hyg
Gold vs. Junk bonds is on its way to a counter-cyclical condition.
A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation...
Picture of SPX over valuation. SPX dividend yield of 1.92% vs. 10yr T note yielding 3.2%!
2 year yield & t bills
Condition to 2000 & 2007 tops not yet in place. That's the relationship between 2yr yield & 3 mo. t-bill.
junk-bonds-spy-divergence-testing-9-year-support-at-the-same-time-n...
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Tlt droppiing
America is Not an Economic Island – No robo-content, no ads an...
Macro Tourist, maker of the funniest graphics in finance.
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The Long Finger of Doom
Long Bond Love You Long Time
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$TLT approaching 20 year VWAP
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TLT combo
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10-year...
Imgur: The magic of the Internet
As Fed continues with rate hikes, the yield curve continues to flatten. Spreads on 10-2y reach lowest point of t...
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Likely steepening. Of yield curve with drop in crude soon
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nVA8Dfue (1243×704)
Calm before the storm: 10-year Treasury yield in the smallest weekly trading range since before 1980.
Treasury Short Bets May Be on Borrowed Time - Bloomberg
hedge-fund managers and large speculators
boost 10-year note short positions to a record levels
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Central bank purchases are shrinking and projected to turn negative by 2019. QT is considered by many fund mana...
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Moscow Mystery: Where Did All Its Treasuries Go? - Bloomberg Quint
Treasury reported that Russia is no longer a “major foreign holder” of U.S. government securities after dumpin...
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BofA's "Charts Of Darkness" | Zero Hedge
2-10y T yield spread and recessions
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Risk on rally in junk for June! HYG currently pays a 30 day yield of 5.76% on fund holdings rated BB grade and und...
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zI9TDgZE (1440×701)
Chart showing the flattening Treasury yield spreads of the 10-2 and 30-5. At this rate the curve could flatten...
MBy5dqWF (1148×701)
This log chart compares the Gold price (USD) to the short term 2 year Treasury yield. Since gold has no yield is i...
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9yQCN5yB (1148×701)
ratio of Gold price to 30 year Treasury yield
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Nooooo... who could have seen it coming?!
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#end of the tightening cycle?