Browse Stacks: Trading: Bonds


slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
Junk fading
Baby Bear
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
Junk dipping
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
Junk still elevated
Baby Bear
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
channel holding so far
Baby Bear
Capture d'écran 2024-01-29 234311.png
Capture d'écran 2024-01-29 234311.png
S&P still not at ATH compared to bills and is now facing pot resistance
Silver Singularity
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Channel?
Baby Bear
1
Redefining 60/40 Portfolios | Crescat Capital
Redefining 60/40 Portfolios | Crescat Capital
Tantalus
Gold: A Far Superior Alternative | Crescat Capital
Gold: A Far Superior Alternative | Crescat Capital
Tantalus
1JUN18.png
1JUN18.png
Silver Singularity
7
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
hip to be square
Baby Bear
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
mind the canary
Baby Bear
A deflationary yield curve steepener
A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
NFTRH
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
Junk bonds, support turned into resistance
Baby Bear
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
NFTRH
2 year US Treasury bond yield
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
NFTRH
2 year Treasury bond yield
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
NFTRH
SPY vs. SP… err, TLTNotes From the Rabbit Hole
SPY vs. SP… err, TLTNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Trend for stocks (incl. dividends) vs. L/T T bonds (incl. div) still intact. Expecting this to change in Q1/H1, 2023.
NFTRH
u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)
u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)
Forget the hawking Fed, when the 2yr yield rolls over and does its thing to the yield curve, you'd better be ready...
NFTRH
1
'real' 10 year Treasury yield
'real' 10 year Treasury yield
If the 'real' 10yr yield turns down a tail wind for gold ensues.
NFTRH
slopechart_JNK.jpg
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Spitting image of HYG
Baby Bear
slopechart_HYG.jpg
slopechart_HYG.jpg
Long way down
Baby Bear
unnamed (9)_369.png (852×517)
unnamed (9)_369.png (852×517)
Bloomberg Global Bond Aggregate Index
Tim Knight
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unnamed (11)_183.png (802×509)
60:40 balanced portfolio. YoY rolling 12M price return.
Tim Knight
Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential – Notes From t...
Treasury bonds continue to indicate an oncoming contrarian play...
NFTRH
30yr on the way to 2.5%? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr on the way to 2.5%? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr yield headed to 2.5% (monthly chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
NFTRH
30 year treasury bond yield
30 year treasury bond yield
30 year yield headed to 2.5% (daily chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
NFTRH
T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Curious divergence today as 3 mo. T-bill yield is up, inflation expectations tracker down.
NFTRH
Does this look like inflation? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Does this look like inflation? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Does this look like inflation? I didn't think so.
NFTRH
1
Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From th...
Disaster in the making...
NFTRH
slopechart_TLT/(3*XLF).jpg
slopechart_TLT/(3*XLF).jpg
Long TLT, short XLF is an interesting pairs setup. This ratio has been steadfastly obeying a channel since the GF...
Honduki, Hoarder of all Cats
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Ooops!
Baby Bear
2
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
NFTRH
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Continuum... do or die baby! Do or die...
NFTRH
high yield credit spreads
high yield credit spreads
Rising credit spreads not positive for economy (Captain Obvious).
NFTRH
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
For what it's worth, TLT stopped to the penny at the 61.8% Fib (from Dec high to recent low).
Honduki, Hoarder of all Cats
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | No...
Why is the Fed so aggressively out hawking in the media? Because, this... (they're behind the curve).
NFTRH
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Check out the orange line. Fed jawbones are not kidding. They are listening to what the bond market is DEMANDING o...
NFTRH
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
(Manual) TLT Fib projection onto the Dec high, target 120
Baby Bear
slopechart_/US.jpg
slopechart_/US.jpg
H& S on the 30yr
Honduki, Hoarder of all Cats
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
NFTRH
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
Inflation expectations take a hit but still aloft.
NFTRH
credit spreads
credit spreads
Credit spreads still tame, which is not bearish.
NFTRH
tyx
tyx
Implications of rising long-term yields?
NFTRH
The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this are… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this a...
The Fed is not directing markets, but the 2yr yield and indicators like this (credit spreads) most assuredly are...
NFTRH
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF breakdown today
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Glad I held on to my IEF puts yesterday, although they hit my stop loss level.
Baby Bear
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Short term T-Bond fund (7-10 yrs)
Baby Bear
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
Bonds vs small caps
Baby Bear
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Is next phase inflationary or deflationary? The inverted right side shoulder or lack thereof will tell.
NFTRH
1
tyx
tyx
Was today the low in the 30yr yield's right side shoulder? If so, get ready for a change in this week's tone. If n...
NFTRH
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
TLT had it going for a month. Now it could take out 125 by Early June
sdhaff21
Continuum to… Continue? | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Continuum to… Continue? | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr yield is breaking a fl...
NFTRH
30 year treasury yield
30 year treasury yield
Recent pullback in yields was in the bag as Gross touted a bond short.
NFTRH
bond bear market_2.jpg (735×576)
bond bear market_2.jpg (735×576)
Tim Knight
3
slopechart_LQD.jpg
slopechart_LQD.jpg
LQD has been in a pretty tight range for the last few months, and it made a near perfect lower high the other day....
Matt
30 year treasury yield
30 year treasury yield
The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?
NFTRH
5 year inflation rate
5 year inflation rate
The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?
NFTRH
yield curve
yield curve
If you're gonna get the markets right you gotta get the macro right. Here's one such macro map needed.
NFTRH
slopechart_TIP.jpg
slopechart_TIP.jpg
Inflation protected U.S. Treasury bonds hit a new high
Tantalus
1
slopechart_FR:DTWEXBGS.jpg
slopechart_FR:DTWEXBGS.jpg
U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar. Target around 131.
Tantalus
1
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Headfake?
Tantalus
slopechart_/US.jpg
slopechart_/US.jpg
All Systems Go?
Tantalus
1
slopechart_TIP.jpg
slopechart_TIP.jpg
Maybe the party is just getting started?
Tantalus
slopechart_FR:DGS10.jpg
slopechart_FR:DGS10.jpg
10 year Treasury constant maturity rate. Trouble has been brewing for a while now.
Tantalus
slopechart_$SPX/FR:DGS30.jpg
slopechart_$SPX/FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year mouse. If (when) the yield on the 30 year bond goes to zero, then this calculation becomes undefined.
Tantalus
1
30yr 5yr yield curve
30yr 5yr yield curve
30yr-5yr yield curve did tw...
NFTRH
2
Don’t try to (re) build Rome in a day | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Don’t try to (re) build Rome in a day | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Words are necessary here. Deflation. That is a word. Inflation. that is another words. Remember it because it's no...
NFTRH
1
slopechart_FR:DGS30.jpg
slopechart_FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year treasury yield tries to get back in line
Tantalus
A silly question on market sentiment… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A silly question on market sentiment… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Market sentiment is not risk averse or over bearish. Market sentiment is absolutely 100% TERRIFIED.
NFTRH
bfmF457.jpg (976×511)
bfmF457.jpg (976×511)
Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio... ever...
Tim Knight
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Yikes, check out the Japan 10yr yield. Folks, global deflation is probably not the play after this acute scare.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX is finally on the message of the 2 year yield.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
I don't know, it's just a scary chart is all. And it does not even include the Fed's latest plunge back to ZIRP.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX finally cracks as TIP/TLT had foretold well before effing COVID effing 19. This is the lever.
NFTRH
tyx
tyx
Powell the effing dove was in the bag even before COVID-19, it's just that he's on steroids now.
NFTRH
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Bonds are in full tank mode amid the deflationary rush by the herds... ha ha ha bring on the inflation.
NFTRH
yield curve
yield curve
Yeah, just another steepening of the curve...
NFTRH
1
yield curve
yield curve
Why I do believe we are witnessing a baby yield curve steepener...
NFTRH
Gold’s hidden affinity for Treasury bonds | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold’s hidden affinity for Treasury bonds | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A little reminder from the last deflation scare. This is an excerpt from 11/22/08.
NFTRH
tlt
tlt
Treasury bonds look like...
NFTRH
tyx
tyx
NIRP here we come!
NFTRH
slopechart_VTI/TLT.jpg
slopechart_VTI/TLT.jpg
Stocks vs. Bonds
Tantalus
1
yield curve
yield curve
Yield curve steepens to highest point since the summer mini-inversion. Steepener currently deflationary, but can l...
NFTRH
cme fed funds futures
cme fed funds futures
Fed Funds futures...
NFTRH
fed funds rate
fed funds rate
Fed Funds and the Business Cycle...
NFTRH
fed funds and financial crises
fed funds and financial crises
Fed Funds and historical crises...
NFTRH
fed funds rate
fed funds rate
Fed Funds Rate...
NFTRH
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...5XFXtv_l.jpeg
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...5XFXtv_l.jpeg
Yield is inverted again
The Director
1
yield curve
yield curve
10/2 yield curve ticks back toward steepening.
NFTRH
1
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._vb5yw1_l.png
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._vb5yw1_l.png
Interest rates vs gold
The Director
1
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed is out of its comfort box on the downside as it was on the upside in late 2018.
NFTRH
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) expectations.
NFTRH
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3 feb14.PNG
Silver Singularity
30 year treasury yield
30 year treasury yield
The fix is in, unlike in Q4 2018... check the associated post for a big reason why bears are continually played by...
NFTRH
tnx
tnx
Say, GYX/Gold curiously going the 'wrong' way. Who's right, it or the 10yr and TIPs ratios? Answer is for all the...
NFTRH
growth worries.jpg (844×620)
growth worries.jpg (844×620)
Tim Knight
1
About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Crash Again? – Technical Traders Ltd.
About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Crash Again? – Technical...
Chris Vermeulen
1
tyx
tyx
I for one have to ask 'why?'. https://nftrh.com/2019/11/25/casino-patrons-turn-to-the-right/ Beep beep!
NFTRH
bfm6BCE.jpg (976×508)
bfm6BCE.jpg (976×508)
Until WeWork Bonds are priced at $0, they are overpriced.
Tim Knight
slopechart_RINF.jpg
slopechart_RINF.jpg
Ooh look! There's an ETF for inflation. Trend is still down overall! ojo
Claws