Browse Stacks: Trading: Bonds
slopechart_/US.jpg
All Systems Go?
slopechart_TIP.jpg
Maybe the party is just getting started?
slopechart_FR:DGS10.jpg
10 year Treasury constant maturity rate. Trouble has been brewing for a while now.
slopechart_$SPX/FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year mouse. If (when) the yield on the 30 year bond goes to zero, then this calculation becomes undefined.
1
30yr 5yr yield curve
30yr-5yr yield curve did tw...
2
Don’t try to (re) build Rome in a day | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Words are necessary here. Deflation. That is a word. Inflation. that is another words. Remember it because it's no...
1
slopechart_FR:DGS30.jpg
30 year treasury yield tries to get back in line
A silly question on market sentiment… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Market sentiment is not risk averse or over bearish. Market sentiment is absolutely 100% TERRIFIED.
bfmF457.jpg (976×511)
Today was the worst day for a combined equity/bond portfolio... ever...
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Yikes, check out the Japan 10yr yield. Folks, global deflation is probably not the play after this acute scare.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX is finally on the message of the 2 year yield.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
I don't know, it's just a scary chart is all. And it does not even include the Fed's latest plunge back to ZIRP.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
SPX finally cracks as TIP/TLT had foretold well before effing COVID effing 19. This is the lever.
tyx
Powell the effing dove was in the bag even before COVID-19, it's just that he's on steroids now.
Stories from the bond market as the Yield Curve Steepens | Notes...
Bonds are in full tank mode amid the deflationary rush by the herds... ha ha ha bring on the inflation.
yield curve
Yeah, just another steepening of the curve...
yield curve
Why I do believe we are witnessing a baby yield curve steepener...
Gold’s hidden affinity for Treasury bonds | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A little reminder from the last deflation scare. This is an excerpt from 11/22/08.
tlt
Treasury bonds look like...
tyx
NIRP here we come!
slopechart_VTI/TLT.jpg
Stocks vs. Bonds
1
yield curve
Yield curve steepens to highest point since the summer mini-inversion. Steepener currently deflationary, but can l...
cme fed funds futures
Fed Funds futures...
fed funds rate
Fed Funds and the Business Cycle...
fed funds and financial crises
Fed Funds and historical crises...
fed funds rate
Fed Funds Rate...
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...5XFXtv_l.jpeg
Yield is inverted again
1
yield curve
10/2 yield curve ticks back toward steepening.
1
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._vb5yw1_l.png
Interest rates vs gold
1
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed is out of its comfort box on the downside as it was on the upside in late 2018.
Inflation (lack of) Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation (lack of) expectations.
3 feb14.PNG
30 year treasury yield
The fix is in, unlike in Q4 2018... check the associated post for a big reason why bears are continually played by...
tnx
Say, GYX/Gold curiously going the 'wrong' way. Who's right, it or the 10yr and TIPs ratios? Answer is for all the...
growth worries.jpg (844×620)
1
About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Crash Again? – Technical...
1
tyx
I for one have to ask 'why?'. https://nftrh.com/2019/11/25/casino-patrons-turn-to-the-right/ Beep beep!
bfm6BCE.jpg (976×508)
Until WeWork Bonds are priced at $0, they are overpriced.
slopechart_RINF.jpg
Ooh look! There's an ETF for inflation. Trend is still down overall! ojo
inxg.jpg
TSI on UK index-linked gilts (the inflation play) looks a bit boring. Nice chart though.
2
1 Aug15.PNG
3
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._VJngmw_l.png
She’s inverted sir
1
yield curve
Will this condition hold to close the week? If it does and if the yield curve steepens, better have a plan for an...
1
2 year yield, spx, fed funds
The mother of all bond charts shows that the stock market is in massive trouble if the last 2 occurrences are good...
1
30 year bond cot
As for the long bond's CoT, the little guy (bottom panel) is as bullish now as he was bearish in Q4. Dat's un-bullish.
30 year bond optix
Public optimism rising on the long bond. Getting contrary bearish.
tyx
Remember the Q4 2018 "BOND BEAR!!!" hysteria? Now, not so much.
1
tyx
Not long ago the Fed became concerned about the breakout in long bond yields. Now? Err, not so much.
tnx
2018's inflationary pressure gives way to 2019's deflationary pressure.
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Yield hogs gobbling up junk in anticipation of much lower interest rates ahead?
slopechart_TIP/IEF.jpg
The Fed might look at this and see no inflation - so they start cutting again (sooner rather than later)
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So, is the 2yr/SPX relationship going to get back in line (stocks tank) or is SPX right again, as it was in 2016?
FOMC: 06.38.30 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Why was the Fed hawkish in Q4 despite an imploding stock market and dovish now despite a manic bullish one? Simple...
2 year yield and yield curve
2yr yield has been leading the dovish Fed while the yield curve gets peppy as it did into late Sept.
slopechart_TLT/GLD.jpg
Cui Bono?
tlt-testing-resistance-and-creating-a-bearish-reversal-march-26....
weekly.jpg
Breakout of UK index linked gilts less than 1.5 weeks to Brexit deadline. Had assumed that there would be a breako...
slopechart_TBT.jpg
TBT trending up
1
9 feb17.PNG
5 feb17.PNG
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Nice fit since the taper tantrum / end of Operation Twist
1
2019-02-10_8-38-33.jpg (890×439)
slopechart_SHV.jpg
Fear Factor?
3
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Junk also tapping new highs - non-confirming OBV
slopechart_BND.jpg
Tapping new highs - confirming OBV
1 feb5.PNG
slopechart_BND.jpg
No more rate increases as far as the eye can see...
1
A Talky Bond Yield Chart With a Story to Tell – Notes From the...
The real reason Powell rolled over? Not Trump, not the market correction. It was the 2 year yield stupid.
slopechart_CMBS.jpg
Commercial Mortgages
Beta: -.04
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._c94bIU_l.png
The end of quantitative tightening, qe in perpituity next?
slopechart_EIM.jpg
Head fake? 4.4% yield
maturity wall investment grade BNP.jpg (745×460)
yield curve
Boom/bust indicator (yield curve) still flattens (w/ boom), but risk is high at this extended point.
1
30 year yield
Tell me again about that bond bear market? Eh? All I hear now is crickets.
slopechart_AGZ.jpg
Mortgages & The Middle East: Fannie & Freddie(57%), Israel (9%), Iraq (6%)
slopechart_SHY.jpg
The Face of Fear
Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls? – Not...
So, the Continuum holds again. Fed was not going to let it get away. Will TYX find a low soon?
1
slopechart_JNK.jpg
Here is a snap of my Junk. The blue trendline is from the Armageddon lows.
FOMC at Center Stage (NFTRH 530 excerpt) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Continuum back below the limiter and all is right with the world. Bond bears BANISHED. BBB...
slopechart_TMV.jpg
Triple treasury bear
slopechart_IEF.jpg
If this is the "Big One" for stocks, we might see Treasury yields on both 10 and 30 year paper sporting handles th...
slopechart_IEI.jpg
Treasury market is multiples bigger than stocks
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... inflation expectations in the tank.
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... The Continuum back below the limiter...
About That Bond Bear Market… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
About that bond bear market... herds running risk 'off' drives yields down, bonds up.
1
slopechart_BND.jpg
Flight to Quantity
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci..._HoOihm_l.png
Inverted yield curve predicting recessions
2
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Don't look now but 30yr yield has failed back below the limiter. Either inflationary or deflationary steepening co...
“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits...
Yield curve all over the news... DOOOOM!!! But it has not yet begun to steepen. Look elsewhere for doom right now...
Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018 – No robo-content, no...
Credit spreads - while still very low - break out of bottoming range.
A History of First Cuts – No robo-content, no ads and no bullshit
Macro Tourist's history of first cuts...
gld.hyg
Gold vs. Junk bonds is on its way to a counter-cyclical condition.
A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation...
Picture of SPX over valuation. SPX dividend yield of 1.92% vs. 10yr T note yielding 3.2%!
2 year yield & t bills
Condition to 2000 & 2007 tops not yet in place. That's the relationship between 2yr yield & 3 mo. t-bill.
junk-bonds-spy-divergence-testing-9-year-support-at-the-same-time-n...
s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.soci...QbudNA_l.jpeg
Tlt droppiing
America is Not an Economic Island – No robo-content, no ads an...
Macro Tourist, maker of the funniest graphics in finance.
1
The Long Finger of Doom
Long Bond Love You Long Time
20Y_TLT_101318.PNG
$TLT approaching 20 year VWAP
2018-10-03_7-51-10_0.jpg (890×473)