Browse Symbol Stacks: XHB: housing recovery

housing recovery

The media is getting a little obsessed with the so-called housing recovery.


Adam GreenAdam Green
I have little doubt there will be a recovery in housing, but it's seasonal, so it's a "spring to fall" market. 
If history repeats, there will be an up-tick interest rates and that will motivate home-buyers to "get in" while they can still steal money at 3.x% instead of 4.x% that was available last year, 2011, and will still be available in 2013.  
This false economy motivation to "save" 1% will see buyers paying far more than a 1% premium on the purchase price, they'll then find they don't qualify as well as they'd like, the appraisals will still be dismal, so L2V's will limit buyers in the segments where they'd be wise to lock into a 30 year fixed, instead, they'll get bamboozled into expensive products and end up moving inside 15 years and wash out any leverage they thought they might see, even if prices are up 50% inside 7 years (which I full well expect to see in the "correct" markets, but not across the board.) 
A home is a purchase, a form of consumption, not a long term single asset investment -- it doesn't "gear" the homeowner to the economy or inflation or the purchasing power of the USD and it doesn't return the "safe as houses" gains promised last century.  
As ever with media noise, I say "flip the chart" and there's your trade -- they say there's a boom, I say there's six months of stagnation. They say there's bust, I say it's time to get in. 
Personally, I like buying homebuilders seasonally. It just works. 8/17/12