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A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
Empire State manufacturing survey
Cost-push inflation? I don't think so. Not in manufacturing. Prices along with several other indicators tanking in...
Gold/Copper ratio, monthly chart
Risk is on copper's side vs. gold. Risk is also against the inflated cyclical macro.
US stock market leadership: semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, b...
Preferred US stock market leadership view is intact to the Q4-Q1 bear market rally theme.
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)
Daily chart of NQ is at clear support, needs to hold to remain normal to an ongoing rally situation.
Emerging markets ETF (EEM) and US dollar (UUP, USD)
If you ever want to short USD, just buy EEM. Inverse EM is USD.
S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart
SPY inverted H&S test happening and it's for all the marbles... bear market rally test of the highs or the next le...
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2 year treasury note yield
2yr yield ticks a higher high to the last high, and Stagflation has to be brought back into the discussion (linked p...
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Commodity/Inflation bulls avert your eyes... or better yet, don't.
GDX Golden Cross: a price paid | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Golden Cross in gold stocks resolves EXACTLY as it should have. Same goes in reverse for Death Cross. Also, it's n...
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Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
January Payrolls +517,000 | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Hazel servicing the guests aboard the Good Ship Lollipop... boy is she ever servicing them!
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The tardy Fed and the new macro | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here on Fed day, behold distortion #2 (there are others)...
The tardy Fed and the new macro | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here on FOMC day, behold distortion #1...
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Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Ra...
If you like a looooong-term base that has turned up then you like the Uranium price.
GDX, gold miners ETF
Starting to see the 'golden cross' touts in gold stocks show up. Implication for an interim move the other way.
hui gold bugs index, monthly chart
HUI is locked and loaded for 500 in next 1-2 years.
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2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
The gold price as adjusted by major currencies
Corrections to the nominal gold price will come, but gold's ratios to major global currencies imply a real bull cycle.
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
soybean futures
Soybeans take out resistance amid positive seasonal averages (into next summer).
tsx Venture index, TSX-V
Speculative 'resources' and inflation traders should be aware that da 'V' is still on the 510 Express (gap fill)....
xop/xle ratio of energy sector internals
If you believe in this internal indicator (XOP/XLE ratio) and you're an Energy bull, 'ruh roh!' might be the appropri...
hui gold bugs index ratio to s&p 500 (HUI/SPX ratio)
Gold stock leadership to broad stocks now 4 months along...
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S&P 500 index, us stock market (SPX)
To antagonize my favorite bearish website... (post link explains more about this imagined bull pattern).
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Ugly Tesla stock chart gap fill coming sooner or laterNotes From...
Anyone for Tesla to 4? That's the implied target of a disgusting H&S. But for now, think about the gap at 81.
Philly Fed manufacturing survey for december
Philly Fed has decline to the pleasant 'Goldilocks' zone, conveniently during the Q4-Q1 market relief seasonal pha...
Gold vs. stock markets, commodities and inflation expectations
Gold is... Beuller?
SPY vs. SP… err, TLTNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Trend for stocks (incl. dividends) vs. L/T T bonds (incl. div) still intact. Expecting this to change in Q1/H1, 2023.
u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)
Forget the hawking Fed, when the 2yr yield rolls over and does its thing to the yield curve, you'd better be ready...
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m2 money supply
If you are a stock market bull AND you believe there is a correlation between M2 and the SM, you may see the extre...
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us dollar index (DXY), usd
Uncle Buck eyeballs the 99 level and a 62% Fib retrace.
copper price (futures)
Copper going to or sub $3/lb. in 2023 IMO. Downtrend still intact despite seasonal bounce.
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natural gas futures price
NatGas is falling apart, seasonal negative and "the last inflated man standing" (Energy) is in trouble.
XLE, energy sector (oil and gas)
Energy sector froggies in a pot that will oh so slowly come to a boil (disclosure: short Energy).
'real' 10 year Treasury yield
If the 'real' 10yr yield turns down a tail wind for gold ensues.
gold price in various global currencies
Gold priced in global currencies, fyi...
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Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD) – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/ES not looking good for stocks or the cyclical market view. Not good at all.
Gold in relation to broad US stocks (SPX), fyi… – Notes From...
Gold vs. stocks... not bad, eh?
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Gold vs. Inflation Expectations has popped above the SMA 50. If you're a gold bug and want to see a solid rally in...
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
CME Group now up to nearly 73% forecast of +.75% on Nov. 2nd.
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.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
While inflation expectations fade DBC bounces. I am short DBC and want to see the divergence resolve downward.
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Inflation expectations continue to fade.
Gold in Euros holds trend – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold in Euros holding major daily uptrend at the SMA 200.
Does the Copper/Gold ratio look good to you? – Notes From the...
Copper/Gold ratio still plenty bearish for broad markets.
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BTC/USD is not buying it – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Bitcoin touts fail to rally the sheeple troops during market sentiment rally (at least so far).
‘Last inflated man standing’ needs a crutch – Notes From t...
"Last inflated man standing" may be joining the bear fest.
Last ditch for the speculative inflation trades – Notes From t...
Last ditch support for the most speculative 'inflation trade' stuff. Brutally bearish weekly chart.
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
Stock market… on cue! – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
S/T 'sentiment' bounce only.
Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200 – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
There goes CRB (commodities) tracker DBC, cracking the SMA 200 today.
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here's USD's fellow rider in market liquidity destruction, the Gold/Silver ratio.
2 Horsemen of (macro) Apocalypse ride on… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
When USD & Gold/Silver ratio rise together it's usually... ruh roh! Liquidity crisis.
Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential – Notes From t...
Treasury bonds continue to indicate an oncoming contrarian play...
30yr on the way to 2.5%? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr yield headed to 2.5% (monthly chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
30 year treasury bond yield
30 year yield headed to 2.5% (daily chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
hui gold bugs index
Where oh where do the gold miners bottom? There are several options, but when it happens it'll be without the foll...
3
DBC short position covered – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
That's good enough for me. Short position on DBC covered just above the SMA 200.
Copper hits ’round number’ support at $3/lb. – Notes From the...
Copper prices hits $3/lb. target, which is the 2018 high.
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Commodities… perfect – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Short DBC, and it is starting to pay off. Looks like a date w/ the daily SMA 200.
Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets – Notes...
Gold continues to pivot vs. more inflation sensitive & cyclical items across the markets.
Just another Cu & Cu/Au post – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Copper/Gold ratio... bad to worse for the cyclical, inflation-sensitive stuff (hello commodities).
‘Anti’ markets – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
'Anti' silver is bullish, which means nothing good for silver.
inflation expectations and gold stocks
It's wrongheaded, but the inflation bugs are damaging gold stocks once again as inflation rolls over. Hint: you ne...
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T-Bill yield up, RINF down today – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Curious divergence today as 3 mo. T-bill yield is up, inflation expectations tracker down.
copper/gold ratio
Copper/Gold ratio is bounce with copper but it implies a respite (bounce) for the recently bearish inflation trade...
copper price (futures)
Oversold bounce by Copper. But it'll be a sell/short/go cash opportunity.
Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed… – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Here is Copper/Gold, making a really lousy macro signal for those still pumping the inflation trades.
copper price
Doctor Copper breaks down and that's not good for the economy and it's not good for the inflation trades either.
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Even more disgusting than nominal XLV is the XLV/SPY ratio, because this ratio rises in bear market and if it gets...
When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this… – Notes...
Want to see a disgusting chart?
Ladies & Gentlemen, meet 3:12 Charlie – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
2:00 Charlie just a bit tardy today...
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Does this look like inflation? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Does this look like inflation? I didn't think so.
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Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle – Notes From th...
Disaster in the making...
Copper/Gold ratio failure continues – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Disaster in the making...
Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold is getting absolutely killed, but it's not even to the downside target yet. More importantly, check out the c...
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Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Okay, so copper is finally setting up to fail. That's good for the counter-cyclical view.
Eggheads tardy in doing the right thing – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Finally the Fed is set to get off its ass months after the market signaled it to do so.
A friendly reminder from Dr. Copper & old man Gold – Notes Fro...
Copper/Gold ratio big macro decision not yet made, but when it comes it's gonna be hysterical. My lean is counter-cyc...
VIX pullback within new uptrend | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
VIX pullback w/in new uptrend... sentiment not the no-brainer it was a couple weeks ago. Not by VIX at least. Othe...
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The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Continuum... do or die baby! Do or die...
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Fed is dovish by definition of its gap with the 3 mo. T-bill yield.
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Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Dovish Fed probably does not want to see stocks break down. The others in this chart? Screw 'em. But they may flip...
high yield credit spreads
Rising credit spreads not positive for economy (Captain Obvious).
HUI joins gold in hitting target | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
HUI doinks target @ 325, joining gold which doinked 2000+ yesterday...
silver price (futures)
Silver through a resistance level...
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Doctor Copper among pre-market’s harsh reversals | Notes From...
Copper/Gold ratio will forecast bad things to come for the cyclical macro if it drops. As yet, still in consolidation.
Doctor Copper among pre-market’s harsh reversals | Notes From...
Gold pokes 2000+ (our S/T target, L/T is 3000+) and reverses just a bit. Next bull phase indicated as long as it h...
Doctor Copper among pre-market’s harsh reversals | Notes From...
Nickel limit up...
Doctor Copper among pre-market’s harsh reversals | Notes From...
Another day, another failure by doctor Copper to take the next leg up...
Bitcoin: Acting like the speculation it is | Notes From the Rabb...
Bitcoin... ha ha ha, not up. It's a speculation.
Bitcoin: Acting like the speculation it is | Notes From the Rabb...
Gold... up.
Bitcoin: Acting like the speculation it is | Notes From the Rabb...
USD... up.
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pall, palladium
I've seen enough to take profit on half of PALL position.
Precious & industrial metals seasonal (from NFTRH 695) | Notes F...
Precious & industrial metals seasonal averages, fyi...
inflation expectations and commodities
Inflation expectations making a move to get back on message w/ CRB index.
Commodity sector (CRB) target in, now what? | Notes From the Rab...
CRB index finally to target at 270+.
platinum futures
While not as technically bullish as Pd, Platinum is constructive in a S/T uptrend channel and the SMA 200.
palladium futures
Sweet RSI and MACD on Palladium, which is above support.