View: ES_4Hour_TwoBearFibScenarios_May132015.jpg


Zooming out a bit, the series of lower highs we've made on the /es since April 27th new all-time high, has set-up two bearish shorter-term swing scenarios, based off of fibonacci price patterns. 

Scenario #1 - Crab pattern: The beargasm that doesn't end well. 

We see a 75 point sell-off back to mid-January range lows support area. Bears get all excited about the pending correction beginning... until the bulls step in an buy heavy going into Q3. 

Scenario #2: Gartley pattern (more likely imho) 

We see a smaller breakdown back to the late March/early April low range at 2052. Bulls would buy it up from there. 

Of the two, I think scenario #2 is more likely IF there's a move lower at all. We've been stuck in this range trade since December, and the upper half of it since February. We've seen ZERO conviction in either direction. 

Breaking beneath the 2066.50 level is key, as that has been support since early April.


I should point out that there is a potential larger crab pattern based off scenario #2's Gartley set-up, which would take us down to 1980.25, and the lows of 2015.  
At this time, a 110 point sell-off seems highly unlikely. 5/13/15
ES did hit 2057 already which might have completed scenario #2 already, but I think we haven't seen the end of the near term downside either. It's aggravating in this chop, but if fast on the trigger and unbiased, the opportunities are there to bank coin big in both directions. The key (and hard part) is to not fall in love with any position in any direction and take profits at the first inkling its turning against you. I'm definitely having a tough time adapting to this strategy, too. 5/13/15
Hey pipes. Target for a Gartley completion is 2052, so we've still got 43-44 points lower to go. 
It's all fibonacci, and technically is not a pattern until it completes. More of a "this is possibly forming, so watch these key areas if it does" 5/13/15