As I recently said there is correlation between $SPX and inverted Treasury account (someone sell stocks to pay Taxes or to buy treasuries). But $TRAN is more sensible to size of Treasury account. That's why $TRAN lead US market. 
Starting next week Treasury begin to seize money from market through debt issues every week! 8 billions, 13 billions, 14 billions etc. It will last 3 months. This support bear case.  

But bulls have support too. US market is flooded with money from abroad. Some money escape from NIRP, they bid for US treasuries and stocks (according to information at (This is bullish for USD by the way.) 

Who wins? I bet my own money through long dated options on bear case. I anticipate test of this year minimum in coming 4 months.


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