Browse Stacks: Business: Interest Rates


slopechart_$TNX*$DXY/16.1.jpg
slopechart_$TNX*$DXY/16.1.jpg
MMRI - market risk still declining
Baby Bear
slopechart_TAN.jpg
slopechart_TAN.jpg
unloved solar sector very rate sensitive
Baby Bear
1
bfm124F.jpg (860×639)
bfm124F.jpg (860×639)
Tim Knight
2
slopechart_Z.jpg
slopechart_Z.jpg
Nice puke today
Baby Bear
slopechart_TUA.jpg
slopechart_TUA.jpg
Mike Green's 5x leveraged ETF on 2 year rates
Baby Bear
2
slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Channel?
Baby Bear
1
interest vs military budgetr.jpg (987×548)
interest vs military budgetr.jpg (987×548)
Tim Knight
bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
The market is still pricing in 110 bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year...
Tim Knight
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
Tim Knight
1
pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
Tim Knight
annualized interest payments_2.jpg (1050×602)
annualized interest payments_2.jpg (1050×602)
US is set to spend over $1 trillion in interest on government debt for the first time ever.
Tim Knight
1
minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
Tim Knight
tp11.png (949×563)
tp11.png (949×563)
headline CPI minus the Fed Funds rate
Tim Knight
2JUN20.jpg
2JUN20.jpg
Silver Singularity
3
2JUN19.png
2JUN19.png
Silver Singularity
4
1JUN18.png
1JUN18.png
Silver Singularity
7
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
Tim Knight
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal continues to plumb new depths of inversion...
Tim Knight
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_AIG.jpg
slopechart_AIG.jpg
are they sweating yet?
Baby Bear
so9e0yd2egma1.jpg (1554×680)
so9e0yd2egma1.jpg (1554×680)
Tim Knight
1
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
Tim Knight
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
Tim Knight
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Tim Knight
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https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6...
Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
Tim Knight
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
Tim Knight
2
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unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
Tim Knight
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unnamed (2)_789.png (1280×655)
The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
Tim Knight
1
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unnamed (1)_802.png (1251×758)
When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
Tim Knight
1
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unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
Tim Knight
2 year treasury note yield
2 year treasury note yield
2yr yield ticks a higher high to the last high, and Stagflation has to be brought back into the discussion (linked p...
NFTRH
2 year US Treasury bond yield
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
NFTRH
2 year Treasury bond yield
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
NFTRH
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!
Tim Knight
2022-11-28_12-37-55.jpg (948×542)
2022-11-28_12-37-55.jpg (948×542)
Tim Knight
2
2y10s spread.jpg (689×476)
2y10s spread.jpg (689×476)
2y10y curve closed at the most inverted level in 40 years last night
Tim Knight
FgGG7xCWAAQ1_eM (1576×834)
FgGG7xCWAAQ1_eM (1576×834)
Tim Knight
3
6m.png (1565×1157)
6m.png (1565×1157)
6 Month Treasury Yield
Tim Knight
1
kdc.jpg
kdc.jpg
Message from KimDotCom. With a name beginning with Kim shouldn't he be CEO of North Korea or somewhere like that?
Claws
unnamed (7)_496.png (803×513)
unnamed (7)_496.png (803×513)
The Fed’s fund rate has climbed 300bp in 12M, leading to extreme moves across markets. In particular, the third...
Tim Knight
The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming | ZeroHedge
The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming | ZeroHedge
Tim Knight
2
Interest-national-debt-july-2022-chart-3.jpg (1000×750)
Interest-national-debt-july-2022-chart-3.jpg (1000×750)
According to CBO’s projections, interest payments would total around $66 trillion over the next 30 years and wou...
Tim Knight
1
fredgraph.png (700×866)
fredgraph.png (700×866)
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (650×866)
fredgraph.png (650×866)
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×716)
fredgraph.png (700×716)
Inflation-Adjusted 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1979-1985
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×716)
fredgraph.png (700×716)
Inflation-Adjusted 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 2000-2022
Tim Knight
2
Contra Corner Why Today's Inflation Challenge Would Have Flummoxed Even Paul Volcker - David Stockman's Contra Corner
Contra Corner Why Today's Inflation Challenge Would Have Flummox...
Real Yield In 10-Year UST, 1979-2022
Tim Knight
30yr on the way to 2.5%? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr on the way to 2.5%? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr yield headed to 2.5% (monthly chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
NFTRH
30 year treasury bond yield
30 year treasury bond yield
30 year yield headed to 2.5% (daily chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (700×716)
fredgraph.png (700×716)
Inflation-Adjusted Fed Funds Rate, 2008-2022
Tim Knight
2022-07-12_13-12-45.jpg (1057×656)
2022-07-12_13-12-45.jpg (1057×656)
3M10Y spread is collapsing...
Tim Knight
2
2022-07-12_06-35-27_0.jpg (1053×655)
2022-07-12_06-35-27_0.jpg (1053×655)
Yield curve (2s10s) tumbling to its most inverted since 2007...
Tim Knight
2022-06-30_11-55-36.jpg (1080×709)
2022-06-30_11-55-36.jpg (1080×709)
The Short-end of the curve was the hardest hit, with 2Y rising 220bps in H1 and 30Y up 123bps...
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (750×568)
fredgraph.png (750×568)
Inflation-Adjusted 15-Year Mortgage Rate, 2010-2022
Tim Knight
1
fredgraph.png (700×868)
fredgraph.png (700×868)
Tim Knight
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Tim Knight
2
fredgraph.png (700×918)
fredgraph.png (700×918)
Inflation-Adjusted Federal Funds Rate, 1954-2022
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Median Home Sales Price Versus 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980-2022
Tim Knight
2
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Yield On 10-Year US Treasury Not, 1987-2022
Tim Knight
2
10Y TSY lt 2.jpg (1072×623)
10Y TSY lt 2.jpg (1072×623)
Tim Knight
2022-03-21_10-59-34.jpg (996×621)
2022-03-21_10-59-34.jpg (996×621)
Today was the second biggest yield jump for 2Y yields since June 2009...
Tim Knight
3
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
NFTRH
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Continuum... do or die baby! Do or die...
NFTRH
FN8VnFFVsAADw13 (703×358)
FN8VnFFVsAADw13 (703×358)
Tim Knight
US-CPI_federal-funds-rate-2022-03-12-minus-CPI.png (525×413)
US-CPI_federal-funds-rate-2022-03-12-minus-CPI.png (525×413)
Tim Knight
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | No...
Why is the Fed so aggressively out hawking in the media? Because, this... (they're behind the curve).
NFTRH
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Check out the orange line. Fed jawbones are not kidding. They are listening to what the bond market is DEMANDING o...
NFTRH
credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
Tim Knight
1
Gold and inflation | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold and inflation | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
You know, there are times when it's good to have gold for inflation. Just not as often as perma-bugs think. But if...
NFTRH
2
2022-01-13_12-19-02.jpg (1035×563)
2022-01-13_12-19-02.jpg (1035×563)
According to the Taylor rule, interest rates are TEN PERCENT TOO LOW right now! (1,000 basis points)
Tim Knight
2022-01-13_12-27-04.jpg (993×593)
2022-01-13_12-27-04.jpg (993×593)
Yields look ready to plunge.......
Tim Knight
1
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
NFTRH
2 year treasury yield
2 year treasury yield
Can't really put enough words in this blurb to explain, but if you want to check the link associated w/ the chart...
NFTRH
2
tyx
tyx
Implications of rising long-term yields?
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Tim Knight
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF breakdown today
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Glad I held on to my IEF puts yesterday, although they hit my stop loss level.
Baby Bear
10Y real rate nov 2021.jpg (730×429)
10Y real rate nov 2021.jpg (730×429)
Negative real rates
Tim Knight
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Short term T-Bond fund (7-10 yrs)
Baby Bear
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
Bonds vs small caps
Baby Bear
Interest-Rates-Vs-Deficit-090621.png (812×479)
Interest-Rates-Vs-Deficit-090621.png (812×479)
Tim Knight
basis point move impact on S&P_0.jpg (590×463)
basis point move impact on S&P_0.jpg (590×463)
Every 0.1% Increase In The Discount Rate Equates To a 4% Decline In Stocks
Tim Knight
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Is next phase inflationary or deflationary? The inverted right side shoulder or lack thereof will tell.
NFTRH
1
fredgraph.png (800×520)
fredgraph.png (800×520)
Inflation-Adjusted Yield On 10–Year UST, 2016-2021
Tim Knight
1
yield curve
yield curve
No assurance that the yield curve steepener will remain inflationary. Nope, none at all.
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Real 10–Year US Treasury Yield, 1985-2021
Tim Knight
1
tyx
tyx
Was today the low in the 30yr yield's right side shoulder? If so, get ready for a change in this week's tone. If n...
NFTRH
1
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
Inflation-Adjusted 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate, 1991-2021
Tim Knight
peak fed.jpg (843×445)
peak fed.jpg (843×445)
Tim Knight
1
E4ArBAEVoAERp8A (800×600)
E4ArBAEVoAERp8A (800×600)
Inflation-Adjusted Junk Bond Yield, 1990-2021
Tim Knight
1
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 1.05.32 PM.png (1920×1060)
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 1.05.32 PM.png (1920×1060)
Tim Knight
1
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 12.57.37 PM.png (1924×1066)
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 12.57.37 PM.png (1924×1066)
Tim Knight
Fed-Funds-GDP-Growth-Rate-2yr-051321-1024x601.png (1024×601)
Fed-Funds-GDP-Growth-Rate-2yr-051321-1024x601.png (1024×601)
Tim Knight
4 week bill april 29.jpg (1073×514)
4 week bill april 29.jpg (1073×514)
US Sells Treasury Bills At 0% For The First Time Since The Covid Crash
Tim Knight
1
div yields vs tsy yield_0.jpg (1245×668)
div yields vs tsy yield_0.jpg (1245×668)
Because that yield on the 10Y is decisively above the S&P's dividend yield, and where according to BofA “there i...
Tim Knight
2
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bfm9042_1.jpg (859×428)
Tim Knight
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2021-02-25 (1).jpg (1046×578)
Tim Knight
slopechart_GS,JPM,BAC,C,XLF.jpg
slopechart_GS,JPM,BAC,C,XLF.jpg
Baby Bear
minack rates 1_0.png (890×580)
minack rates 1_0.png (890×580)
Tim Knight
1
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IB-BR-img2.png (800×489)
Tim Knight