Browse Stacks: Business: Interest Rates


slopechart_TLT.jpg
slopechart_TLT.jpg
Channel?
Baby Bear
1
interest vs military budgetr.jpg (987×548)
interest vs military budgetr.jpg (987×548)
Tim Knight
bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
The market is still pricing in 110 bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year...
Tim Knight
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
Tim Knight
1
pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
Tim Knight
annualized interest payments_2.jpg (1050×602)
annualized interest payments_2.jpg (1050×602)
US is set to spend over $1 trillion in interest on government debt for the first time ever.
Tim Knight
1
minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
Tim Knight
tp11.png (949×563)
tp11.png (949×563)
headline CPI minus the Fed Funds rate
Tim Knight
2JUN20.jpg
2JUN20.jpg
Silver Singularity
3
2JUN19.png
2JUN19.png
Silver Singularity
4
1JUN18.png
1JUN18.png
Silver Singularity
7
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
Tim Knight
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal continues to plumb new depths of inversion...
Tim Knight
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_AIG.jpg
slopechart_AIG.jpg
are they sweating yet?
Baby Bear
so9e0yd2egma1.jpg (1554×680)
so9e0yd2egma1.jpg (1554×680)
Tim Knight
1
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
Tim Knight
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
Tim Knight
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Tim Knight
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6-4a03-4f0e-88f8-dbaa9359732c_689x450.png (689×450)
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6...
Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
Tim Knight
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
Tim Knight
2
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unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
Tim Knight
unnamed (2)_789.png (1280×655)
unnamed (2)_789.png (1280×655)
The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
Tim Knight
1
unnamed (1)_802.png (1251×758)
unnamed (1)_802.png (1251×758)
When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
Tim Knight
1
unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
Tim Knight
2 year treasury note yield
2 year treasury note yield
2yr yield ticks a higher high to the last high, and Stagflation has to be brought back into the discussion (linked p...
NFTRH
2 year US Treasury bond yield
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
NFTRH
2 year Treasury bond yield
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
NFTRH
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!
Tim Knight
2022-11-28_12-37-55.jpg (948×542)
2022-11-28_12-37-55.jpg (948×542)
Tim Knight
2
2y10s spread.jpg (689×476)
2y10s spread.jpg (689×476)
2y10y curve closed at the most inverted level in 40 years last night
Tim Knight
FgGG7xCWAAQ1_eM (1576×834)
FgGG7xCWAAQ1_eM (1576×834)
Tim Knight
3
6m.png (1565×1157)
6m.png (1565×1157)
6 Month Treasury Yield
Tim Knight
1
kdc.jpg
kdc.jpg
Message from KimDotCom. With a name beginning with Kim shouldn't he be CEO of North Korea or somewhere like that?
Claws
unnamed (7)_496.png (803×513)
unnamed (7)_496.png (803×513)
The Fed’s fund rate has climbed 300bp in 12M, leading to extreme moves across markets. In particular, the third...
Tim Knight
The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming | ZeroHedge
The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming | ZeroHedge
Tim Knight
2
Interest-national-debt-july-2022-chart-3.jpg (1000×750)
Interest-national-debt-july-2022-chart-3.jpg (1000×750)
According to CBO’s projections, interest payments would total around $66 trillion over the next 30 years and wou...
Tim Knight
1
fredgraph.png (700×866)
fredgraph.png (700×866)
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (650×866)
fredgraph.png (650×866)
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×716)
fredgraph.png (700×716)
Inflation-Adjusted 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1979-1985
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×716)
fredgraph.png (700×716)
Inflation-Adjusted 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 2000-2022
Tim Knight
2
Contra Corner Why Today's Inflation Challenge Would Have Flummoxed Even Paul Volcker - David Stockman's Contra Corner
Contra Corner Why Today's Inflation Challenge Would Have Flummox...
Real Yield In 10-Year UST, 1979-2022
Tim Knight
30yr on the way to 2.5%? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr on the way to 2.5%? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
30yr yield headed to 2.5% (monthly chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
NFTRH
30 year treasury bond yield
30 year treasury bond yield
30 year yield headed to 2.5% (daily chart) even as the eggheads prepare to hike.
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (700×716)
fredgraph.png (700×716)
Inflation-Adjusted Fed Funds Rate, 2008-2022
Tim Knight
2022-07-12_13-12-45.jpg (1057×656)
2022-07-12_13-12-45.jpg (1057×656)
3M10Y spread is collapsing...
Tim Knight
2
2022-07-12_06-35-27_0.jpg (1053×655)
2022-07-12_06-35-27_0.jpg (1053×655)
Yield curve (2s10s) tumbling to its most inverted since 2007...
Tim Knight
2022-06-30_11-55-36.jpg (1080×709)
2022-06-30_11-55-36.jpg (1080×709)
The Short-end of the curve was the hardest hit, with 2Y rising 220bps in H1 and 30Y up 123bps...
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (750×568)
fredgraph.png (750×568)
Inflation-Adjusted 15-Year Mortgage Rate, 2010-2022
Tim Knight
1
fredgraph.png (700×868)
fredgraph.png (700×868)
Tim Knight
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
Tim Knight
2
fredgraph.png (700×918)
fredgraph.png (700×918)
Inflation-Adjusted Federal Funds Rate, 1954-2022
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Median Home Sales Price Versus 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980-2022
Tim Knight
2
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Yield On 10-Year US Treasury Not, 1987-2022
Tim Knight
2
10Y TSY lt 2.jpg (1072×623)
10Y TSY lt 2.jpg (1072×623)
Tim Knight
2022-03-21_10-59-34.jpg (996×621)
2022-03-21_10-59-34.jpg (996×621)
Today was the second biggest yield jump for 2Y yields since June 2009...
Tim Knight
3
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
NFTRH
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Continuum... do or die baby! Do or die...
NFTRH
FN8VnFFVsAADw13 (703×358)
FN8VnFFVsAADw13 (703×358)
Tim Knight
US-CPI_federal-funds-rate-2022-03-12-minus-CPI.png (525×413)
US-CPI_federal-funds-rate-2022-03-12-minus-CPI.png (525×413)
Tim Knight
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | No...
Why is the Fed so aggressively out hawking in the media? Because, this... (they're behind the curve).
NFTRH
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Check out the orange line. Fed jawbones are not kidding. They are listening to what the bond market is DEMANDING o...
NFTRH
credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
Tim Knight
1
Gold and inflation | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Gold and inflation | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
You know, there are times when it's good to have gold for inflation. Just not as often as perma-bugs think. But if...
NFTRH
2
2022-01-13_12-19-02.jpg (1035×563)
2022-01-13_12-19-02.jpg (1035×563)
According to the Taylor rule, interest rates are TEN PERCENT TOO LOW right now! (1,000 basis points)
Tim Knight
2022-01-13_12-27-04.jpg (993×593)
2022-01-13_12-27-04.jpg (993×593)
Yields look ready to plunge.......
Tim Knight
1
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
NFTRH
2 year treasury yield
2 year treasury yield
Can't really put enough words in this blurb to explain, but if you want to check the link associated w/ the chart...
NFTRH
2
tyx
tyx
Implications of rising long-term yields?
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Tim Knight
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF breakdown today
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Glad I held on to my IEF puts yesterday, although they hit my stop loss level.
Baby Bear
10Y real rate nov 2021.jpg (730×429)
10Y real rate nov 2021.jpg (730×429)
Negative real rates
Tim Knight
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Short term T-Bond fund (7-10 yrs)
Baby Bear
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
Bonds vs small caps
Baby Bear
Interest-Rates-Vs-Deficit-090621.png (812×479)
Interest-Rates-Vs-Deficit-090621.png (812×479)
Tim Knight
basis point move impact on S&P_0.jpg (590×463)
basis point move impact on S&P_0.jpg (590×463)
Every 0.1% Increase In The Discount Rate Equates To a 4% Decline In Stocks
Tim Knight
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Is next phase inflationary or deflationary? The inverted right side shoulder or lack thereof will tell.
NFTRH
1
fredgraph.png (800×520)
fredgraph.png (800×520)
Inflation-Adjusted Yield On 10–Year UST, 2016-2021
Tim Knight
1
yield curve
yield curve
No assurance that the yield curve steepener will remain inflationary. Nope, none at all.
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Real 10–Year US Treasury Yield, 1985-2021
Tim Knight
1
tyx
tyx
Was today the low in the 30yr yield's right side shoulder? If so, get ready for a change in this week's tone. If n...
NFTRH
1
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
Inflation-Adjusted 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate, 1991-2021
Tim Knight
peak fed.jpg (843×445)
peak fed.jpg (843×445)
Tim Knight
1
E4ArBAEVoAERp8A (800×600)
E4ArBAEVoAERp8A (800×600)
Inflation-Adjusted Junk Bond Yield, 1990-2021
Tim Knight
1
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 1.05.32 PM.png (1920×1060)
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 1.05.32 PM.png (1920×1060)
Tim Knight
1
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 12.57.37 PM.png (1924×1066)
Screen Shot 2021-05-19 at 12.57.37 PM.png (1924×1066)
Tim Knight
Fed-Funds-GDP-Growth-Rate-2yr-051321-1024x601.png (1024×601)
Fed-Funds-GDP-Growth-Rate-2yr-051321-1024x601.png (1024×601)
Tim Knight
4 week bill april 29.jpg (1073×514)
4 week bill april 29.jpg (1073×514)
US Sells Treasury Bills At 0% For The First Time Since The Covid Crash
Tim Knight
1
div yields vs tsy yield_0.jpg (1245×668)
div yields vs tsy yield_0.jpg (1245×668)
Because that yield on the 10Y is decisively above the S&P's dividend yield, and where according to BofA “there i...
Tim Knight
2
bfm9042_1.jpg (859×428)
bfm9042_1.jpg (859×428)
Tim Knight
2021-02-25 (1).jpg (1046×578)
2021-02-25 (1).jpg (1046×578)
Tim Knight
slopechart_GS,JPM,BAC,C,XLF.jpg
slopechart_GS,JPM,BAC,C,XLF.jpg
Baby Bear
minack rates 1_0.png (890×580)
minack rates 1_0.png (890×580)
Tim Knight
1
IB-BR-img2.png (800×489)
IB-BR-img2.png (800×489)
Tim Knight
yield curve trades.jpg (753×402)
yield curve trades.jpg (753×402)
Tim Knight
1
30 year treasury yield
30 year treasury yield
The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?
NFTRH
5 year inflation rate
5 year inflation rate
The inflation is going to fail. The question is when?
NFTRH
30Y net specs.jpg (1096×588)
30Y net specs.jpg (1096×588)
Traders are really, really, REALLY short bonds right now.
Tim Knight
yield curve
yield curve
If you're gonna get the markets right you gotta get the macro right. Here's one such macro map needed.
NFTRH