Browse Stacks: Business


All Pages in Business

slopechart_ALL.jpg
slopechart_ALL.jpg
MAS - most annoying short, just goes up every day
Baby Bear
4
slopechart_NAIL.jpg
slopechart_NAIL.jpg
hit it, monkey
Baby Bear
1
bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
The market is still pricing in 110 bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year...
Tim Knight
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_ITB.jpg
slopechart_ITB.jpg
lofty
Baby Bear
slopechart_CNP.jpg
slopechart_CNP.jpg
Closed just below the broken trend line. Will it hold?
Baby Bear
pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
Tim Knight
slopechart_OPEN.jpg
slopechart_OPEN.jpg
tough one
Baby Bear
slopechart_IYR.jpg
slopechart_IYR.jpg
Getting there...?
Baby Bear
annualized interest payments_2.jpg (1050×602)
annualized interest payments_2.jpg (1050×602)
US is set to spend over $1 trillion in interest on government debt for the first time ever.
Tim Knight
1
era of fiscal excess_1.jpg (857×500)
era of fiscal excess_1.jpg (857×500)
Waste, waste, and more waste
Tim Knight
1
Debt-Free-Growth-Economic-Deficit.jpg (883×519)
Debt-Free-Growth-Economic-Deficit.jpg (883×519)
Tim Knight
Debt-To-GDP-Growth-2009-Present-1024x565.jpg (1024×565)
Debt-To-GDP-Growth-2009-Present-1024x565.jpg (1024×565)
Tim Knight
cpi hartnett_1.jpg (653×516)
cpi hartnett_1.jpg (653×516)
Tim Knight
US vs Japan CPI.jpg (1261×644)
US vs Japan CPI.jpg (1261×644)
Japanese inflation is now higher than that in the US for the first time since October 2015.
Tim Knight
2023-07-21_08-51-32.jpg (807×584)
2023-07-21_08-51-32.jpg (807×584)
Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve like no one else ever has........
Tim Knight
2
minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
Tim Knight
USlifeexpectancy.jpg
USlifeexpectancy.jpg
US Life Expectancy.
Claws
1
RGEG (1).png
RGEG (1).png
American now and then
Silver Singularity
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
Silver Singularity
2
tp11.png (949×563)
tp11.png (949×563)
headline CPI minus the Fed Funds rate
Tim Knight
tp3_0.png (960×672)
tp3_0.png (960×672)
horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
Tim Knight
Nashville-vacancy-rate-1.png (1000×621)
Nashville-vacancy-rate-1.png (1000×621)
Tim Knight
National-Airbnb-2.png (1280×952)
National-Airbnb-2.png (1280×952)
Tim Knight
1
5JUN20.png
5JUN20.png
Now THAT'S some optimism right there!
Silver Singularity
2
3JUN20.png
3JUN20.png
Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
Silver Singularity
4
2JUN20.jpg
2JUN20.jpg
Silver Singularity
3
1JUN20.png
1JUN20.png
French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
Silver Singularity
2JUN19.png
2JUN19.png
Silver Singularity
4
1JUN18.png
1JUN18.png
Silver Singularity
7
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
Tim Knight
CS national.jpg (700×499)
CS national.jpg (700×499)
Tim Knight
case mish.jpg (700×426)
case mish.jpg (700×426)
Tim Knight
bfm6FA1.jpg (1023×607)
bfm6FA1.jpg (1023×607)
The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
Tim Knight
bfmEBF7.jpg (1023×612)
bfmEBF7.jpg (1023×612)
Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
Tim Knight
the next bubble AI.jpg (1076×621)
the next bubble AI.jpg (1076×621)
Tim Knight
2
slopechart_PYPL.jpg
slopechart_PYPL.jpg
pay boil
Baby Bear
4jv9i6srxmxa1.jpg (577×596)
4jv9i6srxmxa1.jpg (577×596)
Tim Knight
redemption.jpg (600×412)
redemption.jpg (600×412)
This represents PURE PROFIT for gift card sellers
Tim Knight
TSY cash.png (1280×757)
TSY cash.png (1280×757)
Ha ha ha ha
Tim Knight
2
weaker labor markets.jpg (686×405)
weaker labor markets.jpg (686×405)
Weaker labor market allows Fed to cut aggressively
Tim Knight
1
global house price drop.jpg (677×397)
global house price drop.jpg (677×397)
Global house prices falling is recessionary
Tim Knight
global EPS BOfA collapse.jpg (686×393)
global EPS BOfA collapse.jpg (686×393)
Global EPS growth on course for -10-15% YoY in H2’23
Tim Knight
ISM below 45_0.jpg (678×404)
ISM below 45_0.jpg (678×404)
ISM < 45 = Recession
Tim Knight
1
PMI vs negative payrolls.jpg (723×487)
PMI vs negative payrolls.jpg (723×487)
46.3 means "manufacturing contraction on fu...
Tim Knight
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal continues to plumb new depths of inversion...
Tim Knight
record 2 week drop consolidated.jpg (1278×667)
record 2 week drop consolidated.jpg (1278×667)
Tim Knight
Large and small bank loan change.jpg (1068×701)
Large and small bank loan change.jpg (1068×701)
Tim Knight
slopechart_CNP.jpg
slopechart_CNP.jpg
Annoyingly strong
Baby Bear
bfmC62D.jpg (990×652)
bfmC62D.jpg (990×652)
US unemployment is now worse than Russian unemployment...
Tim Knight
slopechart_PANW.jpg
slopechart_PANW.jpg
toppy
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_UBS.jpg
slopechart_UBS.jpg
this is fine
Baby Bear
slopechart_VNO.jpg
slopechart_VNO.jpg
wowser
Baby Bear
slopechart_XLF.jpg
slopechart_XLF.jpg
in the news
Baby Bear
slopechart_SLG.jpg
slopechart_SLG.jpg
commercial RE plunge
Baby Bear
bfm4F5C_2.jpg (1030×585)
bfm4F5C_2.jpg (1030×585)
Tim Knight
1
A deflationary yield curve steepener
A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
NFTRH
FDIC net unrealized losses.jpg (1004×767)
FDIC net unrealized losses.jpg (1004×767)
Tim Knight
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
perfect bounce off the 61.8% Fib
Baby Bear
1
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
Tim Knight
1
Empire State manufacturing survey
Empire State manufacturing survey
Cost-push inflation? I don't think so. Not in manufacturing. Prices along with several other indicators tanking in...
NFTRH
slopechart_$NDX/$SPX.jpg
slopechart_$NDX/$SPX.jpg
NDX/SPX
Ren
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
opened above the trendline
Baby Bear
slopechart_AIG.jpg
slopechart_AIG.jpg
are they sweating yet?
Baby Bear
so9e0yd2egma1.jpg (1554×680)
so9e0yd2egma1.jpg (1554×680)
Tim Knight
1
wm6al35xvcma1.png (680×369)
wm6al35xvcma1.png (680×369)
Tim Knight
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
Tim Knight
slopechart_UEC.jpg
slopechart_UEC.jpg
Which way?
Baby Bear
1
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
Tim Knight
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
Tim Knight
2023-03-03_05-06-09.jpg (802×413)
2023-03-03_05-06-09.jpg (802×413)
Tim Knight
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6-4a03-4f0e-88f8-dbaa9359732c_689x450.png (689×450)
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6...
Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
Tim Knight
slopechart_RRC.jpg
slopechart_RRC.jpg
Can it hold?
Baby Bear
slopechart_ITB.jpg
slopechart_ITB.jpg
Home builders testing short term support
Baby Bear
slopechart_BILL.jpg
slopechart_BILL.jpg
Beautiful
Baby Bear
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
Tim Knight
2
1yrcb6chkpia1.png (1587×902)
1yrcb6chkpia1.png (1587×902)
Tim Knight
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35% From Crazy Peak | ZeroHedge
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
Tim Knight
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35% From Crazy Peak | ZeroHedge
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
Tim Knight
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
Tim Knight
unnamed (2)_789.png (1280×655)
unnamed (2)_789.png (1280×655)
The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
Tim Knight
1
unnamed (1)_802.png (1251×758)
unnamed (1)_802.png (1251×758)
When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
Tim Knight
1
unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
Tim Knight
market reaction CPi.jpg (899×521)
market reaction CPi.jpg (899×521)
Historical reactions to CPI
Tim Knight
core CPI 2.jpg (1068×441)
core CPI 2.jpg (1068×441)
Year over Year CPI
Tim Knight
1
headline CPI chart.jpg (1071×444)
headline CPI chart.jpg (1071×444)
CPI and components
Tim Knight
2 year treasury note yield
2 year treasury note yield
2yr yield ticks a higher high to the last high, and Stagflation has to be brought back into the discussion (linked p...
NFTRH
slopechart_LNC.jpg
slopechart_LNC.jpg
Earnings after the close
Baby Bear
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Commodity/Inflation bulls avert your eyes... or better yet, don't.
NFTRH
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
Heavy losses in the car lending business? Tough short
Baby Bear
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
NFTRH
January Payrolls +517,000 | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
January Payrolls +517,000 | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Hazel servicing the guests aboard the Good Ship Lollipop... boy is she ever servicing them!
NFTRH
1
Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Ra...
If you like a looooong-term base that has turned up then you like the Uranium price.
NFTRH
slopechart_XLE.jpg
slopechart_XLE.jpg
pushing at the upper level
Baby Bear
3bbhbluxf2ea1.png (640×509)
3bbhbluxf2ea1.png (640×509)
A look at house payments vs income ratio. Housing market has never been this unaffordable (in history
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_AXP.jpg
slopechart_AXP.jpg
perfect trend line touch today; earnings Friday
Baby Bear
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
back to the fitty
Baby Bear
2 year US Treasury bond yield
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
NFTRH
2 year Treasury bond yield
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
NFTRH
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!
Tim Knight