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Chart a bit complicated, but it is all support and resistance. RBLX doesn't want to quit. Right now just over pr...
'Misery' Index (adjusted using CPI and LFPR) to its worst since Jimmy Carter was president...
savings rate May 2022.png (1171×721)
And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer...
Economy projection slashed severely (no surprise there)
Y/Y Trimmed Mean CPI, January 2019-April 2022
Inflation-Adjusted 15-Year Mortgage Rate, 2010-2022
CPI Indexed To January 1995
This morning's 8-sigma miss to the downside for Empire Fed manufacturing dragged the US Macro Surprise Index into...
Does this look like inflation? – Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Does this look like inflation? I didn't think so.
Employment-To-Population Ratio, Prime Age Male Workers, 1967-2021
Holy crap......US Trade Balance, 1992-2022
Disastrous Q1 productivity report, which posted at -7.5%, the biggest drop since 1947.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasts Negligable Growth
US Durable Goods Orders Growth Slowest In 13 Months
Y/Y Change In CPI For Consumer Electricity, 2012-2022
Producer Price Index For Natural Gas To Consumers, 1990-2022
Index of Inflation-Adjusted Private Sector Hourly Wages, April 2020=100
real average hourly earnings fell for the 12th straight month...
The 1.2% MoM rise is the biggest since Sept 2005
"Extraordinary" - US Consumer Prices Soar At Fastest In Over 40 Years
zillow rents up.jpg (554×420)
1-3 inflkation expo.jpg (1271×612)
You can’t make this up. During the past nearly quarter of a century, the BOJ’s balance sheet (purple line) has...
Fed funds vs CPI_1.jpg (1267×668)
german inflation 3.30_0.png (1280×662)
German Retailers To Increase Food Prices By 20-50% On Monday
Index of Aggregate Hours For the Goods-Producing Sector,1979-2022
Y/Y Change In PCE Deflator: Services Versus Durable Goods, 2012-2021
Inflation-Adjusted Federal Funds Rate, 1954-2022
Highest in 40 years, thanks to Jerome
Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Surges To 40 Year High In Feb As Real Spending Shrinks
Median Home Sales Price Versus 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980-2022
Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Yield On 10-Year US Treasury Not, 1987-2022
US and euro area inflation.jpg (894×390)
Pretty magical how the experts say inflation will be peaking, oh, right about NOW and then magically vanish.
10Y TSY lt 2.jpg (1072×623)
Today was the second biggest yield jump for 2Y yields since June 2009...
The Pigs are not leading yields | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Pigs are negatively diverging long-term yields and that is important...
Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead | Notes From t...
Continuum... do or die baby! Do or die...
Real wages (average hourly earnings) dropped on a YoY basis for the 11th straight month...
US Consumer Prices Are Rising At Their Fastest Pace In Over 40 Years
Oil is just about the only thing that we still make here.
US Trade Deficit On Goods And Services, 1990-2022
Y/Y Change In Hourly Earnings of Leisure And Hospitality Workers, 2012-2022
Stack Genesis. Sentiment: Bull
Total Business Debt As % of GDP, 1971-2020
Purchasing Power Of The Dollar Since Jerome Powell Joined The Fed In May 2012
inflation expectations and commodities
Inflation expectations making a move to get back on message w/ CRB index.
Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades | No...
Why is the Fed so aggressively out hawking in the media? Because, this... (they're behind the curve).
US Producer Price Inflation Unexpectedly Remains Near Record Highs In Jan
inflation biden_6.jpg (761×429)
Fed Jawbones mean business | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Check out the orange line. Fed jawbones are not kidding. They are listening to what the bond market is DEMANDING o...
silver gold ratio
Silver/Gold ratio: lose this area and go dis-inflationary (at best). Hold it and turn up and it's inflation 'on'.
Index of US Unit Labor Costs, 1971-2021
Imports of Nondurable Goods, 1997-2021
Real physical output of nondurables in the US clocked in 1% below the level first achieved 25 years ago in August 1997!
credit cracking.jpg (865×467)
caixing PMI.jpg (1267×633)
China PMIs Show Economy On Verge Of Contraction Amid Continued Growth Slowdown
Atlanta Fed Shocker: US Economy On Verge Of Contraction
Surprise! | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
CESI negative divergence to stonk analysts' P/E projections had a lot of work to do as of a week ago (1/20). Probably...
Surprise! | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
CESI negative divergence to SPX (technicals) finally closed...
Gold and inflation | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
You know, there are times when it's good to have gold for inflation. Just not as often as perma-bugs think. But if...
According to the Taylor rule, interest rates are TEN PERCENT TOO LOW right now! (1,000 basis points)
Yields look ready to plunge.......
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
2 year treasury yield
Can't really put enough words in this blurb to explain, but if you want to check the link associated w/ the chart...
Implications of rising long-term yields?
fully bottlenecked.png (455×282)
Precious Metals bounce; no sign of speculative froth | Notes Fro...
With silver bugs well muted, there is little sign of speculative froth going on in the precious metals bounce.
Not super obedient to the channel, but the trend is there. Only way to really play this is very cheap OTM JAN lon...
Yield curve shows current Goldilocks flattener with 2022 to either stay that way (unlikely), morph to higher inflatio...
A look at inflationary dynamics through the lens of TSX-V/TSX |...
TSX-V/TSX ratio currently shows cooling inflation spec trades.
BDI continues flashing negative for inflation/inflation trades...
Lands End -- The End
US Producer Prices Explode To Record High In November
Y/Y CPI Inflation Versus 10-Year UST Yield, 1982-2021
Real wages are SHRINKING
Inflation beating wage growth
Finally, the number of U.S. job openings exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by the most on record in October...