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2772f8jorpc81.jpg (640×457)
2772f8jorpc81.jpg (640×457)
Tim Knight
2022-01-13_12-19-02.jpg (1035×563)
2022-01-13_12-19-02.jpg (1035×563)
According to the Taylor rule, interest rates are TEN PERCENT TOO LOW right now! (1,000 basis points)
Tim Knight
2022-01-13_12-27-04.jpg (993×593)
2022-01-13_12-27-04.jpg (993×593)
Yields look ready to plunge.......
Tim Knight
1
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Two important macro indicators remain intact | Notes From the Ra...
If inflation trades do continue, have max caution at the red lined limiters (around 2.5% on the 30yr).
NFTRH
resignation1-22.png (500×481)
resignation1-22.png (500×481)
Tim Knight
2
2 year treasury yield
2 year treasury yield
Can't really put enough words in this blurb to explain, but if you want to check the link associated w/ the chart...
NFTRH
2
tyx
tyx
Implications of rising long-term yields?
NFTRH
fully bottlenecked.png (455×282)
fully bottlenecked.png (455×282)
Tim Knight
1
Precious Metals bounce; no sign of speculative froth | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Precious Metals bounce; no sign of speculative froth | Notes Fro...
With silver bugs well muted, there is little sign of speculative froth going on in the precious metals bounce.
NFTRH
1641231708754.png (1280×642)
1641231708754.png (1280×642)
Tim Knight
2
US-consumer-PCE-2021-12-23-personal-income-salaries-real-v-nominal-household-.png (500×426)
US-consumer-PCE-2021-12-23-personal-income-salaries-real-v-nominal-...
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_TELL.jpg
slopechart_TELL.jpg
Not super obedient to the channel, but the trend is there. Only way to really play this is very cheap OTM JAN lon...
Honduki
yield curve
yield curve
Yield curve shows current Goldilocks flattener with 2022 to either stay that way (unlikely), morph to higher inflatio...
NFTRH
A look at inflationary dynamics through the lens of TSX-V/TSX | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
A look at inflationary dynamics through the lens of TSX-V/TSX |...
TSX-V/TSX ratio currently shows cooling inflation spec trades.
NFTRH
bdi
bdi
BDI continues flashing negative for inflation/inflation trades...
NFTRH
slopechart_LE.jpg
slopechart_LE.jpg
Lands End -- The End
DadTrader
FGlpFStXIAM5eBv (517×367)
FGlpFStXIAM5eBv (517×367)
Tim Knight
1
2021-12-14_05-31-55.jpg (1010×620)
2021-12-14_05-31-55.jpg (1010×620)
US Producer Prices Explode To Record High In November
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (950×720)
fredgraph.png (950×720)
Y/Y CPI Inflation Versus 10-Year UST Yield, 1982-2021
Tim Knight
earnings2.jpg (994×659)
earnings2.jpg (994×659)
Real wages are SHRINKING
Tim Knight
1
earnings1.jpg (1280×908)
earnings1.jpg (1280×908)
Inflation beating wage growth
Tim Knight
2021-12-08_11-58-41.jpg (1056×617)
2021-12-08_11-58-41.jpg (1056×617)
Finally, the number of U.S. job openings exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by the most on record in October...
Tim Knight
2
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Tim Knight
1
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Tim Knight
chinese real estate.jpg (554×403)
chinese real estate.jpg (554×403)
Tim Knight
inflation political problem.jpg (860×445)
inflation political problem.jpg (860×445)
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Loss of Consumer Purchasing Power, 2000-2021
Tim Knight
slopechart_UNG.jpg
slopechart_UNG.jpg
Approaching lower channel support
Baby Bear
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF breakdown today
Baby Bear
1
slopechart_CME.jpg
slopechart_CME.jpg
CME
Baby Bear
slopechart_$XOI.jpg
slopechart_$XOI.jpg
Baby Bear
1
market-capt-to-bull-market.png (670×383)
market-capt-to-bull-market.png (670×383)
Tim Knight
slopechart_USO.jpg
slopechart_USO.jpg
Still in the channel
Baby Bear
taxis1.png (736×429)
taxis1.png (736×429)
Boom and Bust of taxi medallions
Tim Knight
2
Real-Makret-Cap-To-GDP-Ratio-110921-1024x661.png (1024×661)
Real-Makret-Cap-To-GDP-Ratio-110921-1024x661.png (1024×661)
Tim Knight
1
Household-Ownership-of-Equities.png (889×521)
Household-Ownership-of-Equities.png (889×521)
Tim Knight
1
bofa investment clock nov 2021.jpg (656×554)
bofa investment clock nov 2021.jpg (656×554)
Tim Knight
baltic dry index, inflation expectations
baltic dry index, inflation expectations
A negative forward indicator for inflation and thus, the inflation trades as BDI drops hard.
NFTRH
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Glad I held on to my IEF puts yesterday, although they hit my stop loss level.
Baby Bear
image (64).png (1260×700)
image (64).png (1260×700)
US Consumer Prices Are Spiking At Their Fastest In 40 Years
Tim Knight
2
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
Y/Y Change In Producer Price Index, All Commodities
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Total Household Debt Versus Wage And Salary Income, 1971-2021
Tim Knight
1
Top-personal-income-tax-rates-by-state-under-Build-Back-Better-framework.png (1280×1102)
Top-personal-income-tax-rates-by-state-under-Build-Back-Better-fram...
New Yorkers would pay TWO THIRDS of their income in just State and Fed taxes. California right behind them.
Tim Knight
3
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
US Trade Balance In Goods, 2018-2021
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Personal Consumption Expenditures On Goods, 2009-2021
Tim Knight
10Y real rate nov 2021.jpg (730×429)
10Y real rate nov 2021.jpg (730×429)
Negative real rates
Tim Knight
china import export growth.jpg (1261×646)
china import export growth.jpg (1261×646)
China Trade Surplus Hits Record Just As US Trade Deficit Rises To All-Time High
Tim Knight
FDbYGNdXoAcbBGU (700×500)
FDbYGNdXoAcbBGU (700×500)
Food costs surging
Tim Knight
5
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Y/Y Change In Retail Wages & Salaries
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Retail Inventories To Sales Ratio (Months)
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Net Private Domestic Investment As A Percent of GDP, 1960-2020
Tim Knight
Contra Corner Amsterdam Real Estate Prices Highest In 400 Years - David Stockman's Contra Corner
Contra Corner Amsterdam Real Estate Prices Highest In 400 Years...
Amsterdam Real Estate Prices Highest In 400 Years
Tim Knight
5
slopechart_UNG.jpg
slopechart_UNG.jpg
Natty still strong. Signs of a cold winter in many places
Baby Bear
slopechart_IEF.jpg
slopechart_IEF.jpg
Short term T-Bond fund (7-10 yrs)
Baby Bear
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
slopechart_IWM,TLT.jpg
Bonds vs small caps
Baby Bear
unnamed - 2021-10-28T083208.975.jpg (512×254)
unnamed - 2021-10-28T083208.975.jpg (512×254)
GDP Misses As US Economy Grows Only 2% In Q3, Weakest Growth Since Covid Struck
Tim Knight
bofa transitory inflation meter.jpg (574×370)
bofa transitory inflation meter.jpg (574×370)
One Bank's "Persistent Inflation" Meter Just Hit A Record 96 Out Of 100
Tim Knight
2
fredgraph.png (1000×470)
fredgraph.png (1000×470)
On the manufacturing side of the scale, the index number reported for September 2021 was exactly the same as that...
Tim Knight
slopechart_KRBN.jpg
slopechart_KRBN.jpg
Crappy options, but has been on a tear while Euro companies needed carbon credits. With the confluence of Europe...
Honduki
1
citi inflation surprise index 2.jpg (1269×684)
citi inflation surprise index 2.jpg (1269×684)
Tim Knight
atlanta fed gdp now.jpg (1267×684)
atlanta fed gdp now.jpg (1267×684)
In its latest GDPNow forecast published moments ago, the Atlanta Fed slashed its estimate for real GDP growth in t...
Tim Knight
bfm7AA0.jpg (994×562)
bfm7AA0.jpg (994×562)
Tim Knight
Snag_8eadc79.png (953×656)
Snag_8eadc79.png (953×656)
More transitory inflation.
Tim Knight
1
slopechart_PLUG.jpg
slopechart_PLUG.jpg
High volume bullish breakout
Baby Bear
slopechart_URA.jpg
slopechart_URA.jpg
Radiant
Baby Bear
slopechart_KRE.jpg
slopechart_KRE.jpg
bullish
Baby Bear
aihspiuo93t71.png (500×532)
aihspiuo93t71.png (500×532)
Tim Knight
Ny Fed 3Y inflation exp_1.jpg (1280×649)
Ny Fed 3Y inflation exp_1.jpg (1280×649)
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Tim Knight
Trade/Invest ‘top down’; a guide | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Trade/Invest ‘top down’; a guide | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Trade 'top-down'...
NFTRH
2021-10-05_11-41-48.jpg (1280×638)
2021-10-05_11-41-48.jpg (1280×638)
Tim Knight
bfm511C_0.jpg (1015×572)
bfm511C_0.jpg (1015×572)
Natural gas goes ape-shit
Tim Knight
2
apartment list vs oed sept 2021_0.jpg (890×612)
apartment list vs oed sept 2021_0.jpg (890×612)
Tim Knight
rinf (inflation expectations)
rinf (inflation expectations)
Inflation expectations ETF... err, bullish.
NFTRH
1
bfm6DF8.jpg (1015×548)
bfm6DF8.jpg (1015×548)
Tim Knight
2
bfmE05F.jpg (1015×570)
bfmE05F.jpg (1015×570)
Tim Knight
1
gold/spx ratio
gold/spx ratio
Macro still cyclical inflation but it's gonna morph... Stag, Deflation or Goldilocks. 3rd option least likely but...
NFTRH
slopechart_NTR.jpg
slopechart_NTR.jpg
Based on the Fed yesterday and food prices increasing everywhere. This is beauty to break out. I started buying lo...
damicsjd
china empty housing_0_0.jpg (579×366)
china empty housing_0_0.jpg (579×366)
Tim Knight
china net worth.jpg (680×513)
china net worth.jpg (680×513)
Holy shit!
Tim Knight
slopechart_/NG.jpg
slopechart_/NG.jpg
Nutty Gas
Baby Bear
1
CPI-Inflation-Deficit-090521.png (809×483)
CPI-Inflation-Deficit-090521.png (809×483)
Tim Knight
Interest-Rates-Vs-Deficit-090621.png (812×479)
Interest-Rates-Vs-Deficit-090621.png (812×479)
Tim Knight
GDP-Government-Interventions-062931_1.png (812×445)
GDP-Government-Interventions-062931_1.png (812×445)
Tim Knight
1
fredgraph.png (900×470)
fredgraph.png (900×470)
YoY Change In 16% Trimmed Mean CPI, 1993-2021
Tim Knight
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Tim Knight
2
basis point move impact on S&P_0.jpg (590×463)
basis point move impact on S&P_0.jpg (590×463)
Every 0.1% Increase In The Discount Rate Equates To a 4% Decline In Stocks
Tim Knight
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Is next phase inflationary or deflationary? The inverted right side shoulder or lack thereof will tell.
NFTRH
1
fredgraph.png (700×568)
fredgraph.png (700×568)
West Texas Crude Price, Deflated By The CPI, 1971-1980
Tim Knight
citi econonomic surprise index and s&p 500
citi econonomic surprise index and s&p 500
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent if you fight the trends but still, this is gruesome...
NFTRH
1
fredgraph.png (700×718)
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Here's the record-high house price index. FUN FACT: The government conveniently doesn't include housing prices...
Tim Knight
2
1956.jpeg
1956.jpeg
UK Car Production Posts Worst July Since 1956 courtesy of ZeroEdge.
Claws
9
bfmFEAB_0.jpg (966×530)
bfmFEAB_0.jpg (966×530)
QE ain't f**king doing anything for the real economy...
Tim Knight
core PCE 8.26.jpg (1260×652)
core PCE 8.26.jpg (1260×652)
PCE came in at 6.1%, in line with expectations, and the highest since Q3 1983.
Tim Knight
GDP core PCE aug 2021.jpg (1260×651)
GDP core PCE aug 2021.jpg (1260×651)
Q2 GDP Revised To 6.6%, Missing Expectations; Core Inflation Hits Highest Since 1983
Tim Knight
1
gold/spx ratio
gold/spx ratio
Until inflation sensitive cyclical items top out vs. gold risk remains 'on'.
NFTRH
fredgraph.png (800×520)
fredgraph.png (800×520)
Inflation-Adjusted Yield On 10–Year UST, 2016-2021
Tim Knight
1
yield curve
yield curve
No assurance that the yield curve steepener will remain inflationary. Nope, none at all.
NFTRH
recordmargindebt.jpg
recordmargindebt.jpg
Record Margin Debt
Claws
1
bfm2A34_1_0.jpg (948×519)
bfm2A34_1_0.jpg (948×519)
Tim Knight