Browse Stacks: Business
All Pages in Business
slopechart_ALL.jpg
MAS - most annoying short, just goes up every day
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slopechart_NAIL.jpg
hit it, monkey
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The market is still pricing in 110 bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year...
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slopechart_ITB.jpg
lofty
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Closed just below the broken trend line. Will it hold?
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Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
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tough one
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Getting there...?
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US is set to spend over $1 trillion in interest on government debt for the first time ever.
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Waste, waste, and more waste
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Debt-Free-Growth-Economic-Deficit.jpg (883×519)
Debt-To-GDP-Growth-2009-Present-1024x565.jpg (1024×565)
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US vs Japan CPI.jpg (1261×644)
Japanese inflation is now higher than that in the US for the first time since October 2015.
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Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve like no one else ever has........
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USlifeexpectancy.jpg
US Life Expectancy.
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American now and then
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Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
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headline CPI minus the Fed Funds rate
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horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
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Now THAT'S some optimism right there!
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Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
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French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
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credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
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The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
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Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
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slopechart_PYPL.jpg
pay boil
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This represents PURE PROFIT for gift card sellers
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Ha ha ha ha
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Weaker labor market allows Fed to cut aggressively
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Global house prices falling is recessionary
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Global EPS growth on course for -10-15% YoY in H2’23
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ISM < 45 = Recession
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PMI vs negative payrolls.jpg (723×487)
46.3 means "manufacturing contraction on fu...
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Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal continues to plumb new depths of inversion...
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Large and small bank loan change.jpg (1068×701)
slopechart_CNP.jpg
Annoyingly strong
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US unemployment is now worse than Russian unemployment...
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toppy
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slopechart_UBS.jpg
this is fine
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wowser
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in the news
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commercial RE plunge
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A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
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slopechart_ALLY.jpg
perfect bounce off the 61.8% Fib
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99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
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Empire State manufacturing survey
Cost-push inflation? I don't think so. Not in manufacturing. Prices along with several other indicators tanking in...
slopechart_$NDX/$SPX.jpg
NDX/SPX
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opened above the trendline
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are they sweating yet?
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Which way?
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Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
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The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
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https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6...
Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
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Can it hold?
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Home builders testing short term support
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Beautiful
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San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
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The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
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The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
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When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
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The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
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Historical reactions to CPI
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Year over Year CPI
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CPI and components
2 year treasury note yield
2yr yield ticks a higher high to the last high, and Stagflation has to be brought back into the discussion (linked p...
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Earnings after the close
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Commodity/Inflation bulls avert your eyes... or better yet, don't.
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
Heavy losses in the car lending business? Tough short
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
January Payrolls +517,000 | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Hazel servicing the guests aboard the Good Ship Lollipop... boy is she ever servicing them!
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Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Ra...
If you like a looooong-term base that has turned up then you like the Uranium price.
slopechart_XLE.jpg
pushing at the upper level
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A look at house payments vs income ratio. Housing market has never been this unaffordable (in history
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slopechart_AXP.jpg
perfect trend line touch today; earnings Friday
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
back to the fitty
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
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Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!