Browse Stacks: Business
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slopechart_UBS.jpg
this is fine
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wowser
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in the news
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commercial RE plunge
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A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
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slopechart_ALLY.jpg
perfect bounce off the 61.8% Fib
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99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
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Empire State manufacturing survey
Cost-push inflation? I don't think so. Not in manufacturing. Prices along with several other indicators tanking in...
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NDX/SPX
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opened above the trendline
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are they sweating yet?
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Which way?
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Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
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The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
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https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6...
Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
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Can it hold?
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Home builders testing short term support
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Beautiful
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San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
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The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
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The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
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When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
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The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
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Historical reactions to CPI
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Year over Year CPI
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CPI and components
2 year treasury note yield
2yr yield ticks a higher high to the last high, and Stagflation has to be brought back into the discussion (linked p...
slopechart_LNC.jpg
Earnings after the close
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Commodity/Inflation bulls avert your eyes... or better yet, don't.
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
Heavy losses in the car lending business? Tough short
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
January Payrolls +517,000 | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Hazel servicing the guests aboard the Good Ship Lollipop... boy is she ever servicing them!
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Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Ra...
If you like a looooong-term base that has turned up then you like the Uranium price.
slopechart_XLE.jpg
pushing at the upper level
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A look at house payments vs income ratio. Housing market has never been this unaffordable (in history
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slopechart_AXP.jpg
perfect trend line touch today; earnings Friday
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
back to the fitty
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
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Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!
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xop/xle ratio of energy sector internals
If you believe in this internal indicator (XOP/XLE ratio) and you're an Energy bull, 'ruh roh!' might be the appropri...
slopechart_/NG.jpg
Natty Heikin Ashi
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Philly Fed manufacturing survey for december
Philly Fed has decline to the pleasant 'Goldilocks' zone, conveniently during the Q4-Q1 market relief seasonal pha...
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natural gas futures price
NatGas is falling apart, seasonal negative and "the last inflated man standing" (Energy) is in trouble.
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Asset Value of Household Real Estate, 1987-2022
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Housing Production Versus House Prices Since Q2 1995
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Y/Y And M/M Existing Home Sales, 2005-2022
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XLE, energy sector (oil and gas)
Energy sector froggies in a pot that will oh so slowly come to a boil (disclosure: short Energy).
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2y10y curve closed at the most inverted level in 40 years last night
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slopechart_JOE.jpg
50/100 MA Cross. Seems a decent chart.
Contra Corner Why The Fed Is Gonna Break Some Serious Financial...
Contra Corner Why The Fed Is Gonna Break Some Serious Financial...
Contra Corner Why The Fed Is Gonna Break Some Serious Financial...
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slopechart_ITB.jpg
Getting close to the trend line
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Americans' Savings Rate Plunges Near Record Lows As Inflation Overwhelms Income Growth
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Home Prices Plunge Most Since 2009
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6 Month Treasury Yield
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Contra Corner The Folly Of Central Banking In One Country, Parts...
Household Financial Asset Versus Nominal GDP, 1987-2021
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The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recessio...
Contra Corner No Pivot For You! - David Stockman's Contra Corner
Y/Y Change In CPI For Shelter And Its Components, 2012-2022
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Contra Corner No Pivot For You! - David Stockman's Contra Corner
CPI for Services, 2012 to 2022
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Message from KimDotCom. With a name beginning with Kim shouldn't he be CEO of North Korea or somewhere like that?
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Sadly, real wages are lower for Americans for the 18th straight month...
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Lots of room to the downside
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.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Gold vs. Inflation Expectations has popped above the SMA 50. If you're a gold bug and want to see a solid rally in...
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
CME Group now up to nearly 73% forecast of +.75% on Nov. 2nd.
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.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
While inflation expectations fade DBC bounces. I am short DBC and want to see the divergence resolve downward.
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflatio...
Inflation expectations continue to fade.
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Biden's political emptying of the SPR has left it with a record low of just 22 days supply...
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Home Prices Crash At Fastest Pace Since Lehman Bankruptcy
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The Fed’s fund rate has climbed 300bp in 12M, leading to extreme moves across markets. In particular, the third...
The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming | ZeroHedge
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It's just all so beautiful..........
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According to CBO’s projections, interest payments would total around $66 trillion over the next 30 years and wou...
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‘Last inflated man standing’ needs a crutch – Notes From t...
"Last inflated man standing" may be joining the bear fest.
Last ditch for the speculative inflation trades – Notes From t...
Last ditch support for the most speculative 'inflation trade' stuff. Brutally bearish weekly chart.
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