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All Pages in Business
slopechart_ALL.jpg
MAS - most annoying short, just goes up every day
4
slopechart_NAIL.jpg
hit it, monkey
1
bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
The market is still pricing in 110 bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year...
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
1
slopechart_ITB.jpg
lofty
slopechart_CNP.jpg
Closed just below the broken trend line. Will it hold?
pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
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tough one
slopechart_IYR.jpg
Getting there...?
annualized interest payments_2.jpg (1050×602)
US is set to spend over $1 trillion in interest on government debt for the first time ever.
1
era of fiscal excess_1.jpg (857×500)
Waste, waste, and more waste
1
Debt-Free-Growth-Economic-Deficit.jpg (883×519)
Debt-To-GDP-Growth-2009-Present-1024x565.jpg (1024×565)
cpi hartnett_1.jpg (653×516)
US vs Japan CPI.jpg (1261×644)
Japanese inflation is now higher than that in the US for the first time since October 2015.
2023-07-21_08-51-32.jpg (807×584)
Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve like no one else ever has........
2
minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
USlifeexpectancy.jpg
US Life Expectancy.
1
RGEG (1).png
American now and then
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
2
tp11.png (949×563)
headline CPI minus the Fed Funds rate
tp3_0.png (960×672)
horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
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National-Airbnb-2.png (1280×952)
1
5JUN20.png
Now THAT'S some optimism right there!
2
3JUN20.png
Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
4
2JUN20.jpg
3
1JUN20.png
French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
2JUN19.png
4
1JUN18.png
7
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
CS national.jpg (700×499)
case mish.jpg (700×426)
bfm6FA1.jpg (1023×607)
The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
bfmEBF7.jpg (1023×612)
Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
the next bubble AI.jpg (1076×621)
2
slopechart_PYPL.jpg
pay boil
4jv9i6srxmxa1.jpg (577×596)
redemption.jpg (600×412)
This represents PURE PROFIT for gift card sellers
TSY cash.png (1280×757)
Ha ha ha ha
2
weaker labor markets.jpg (686×405)
Weaker labor market allows Fed to cut aggressively
1
global house price drop.jpg (677×397)
Global house prices falling is recessionary
global EPS BOfA collapse.jpg (686×393)
Global EPS growth on course for -10-15% YoY in H2’23
ISM below 45_0.jpg (678×404)
ISM < 45 = Recession
1
PMI vs negative payrolls.jpg (723×487)
46.3 means "manufacturing contraction on fu...
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal continues to plumb new depths of inversion...
record 2 week drop consolidated.jpg (1278×667)
Large and small bank loan change.jpg (1068×701)
slopechart_CNP.jpg
Annoyingly strong
bfmC62D.jpg (990×652)
US unemployment is now worse than Russian unemployment...
slopechart_PANW.jpg
toppy
1
slopechart_UBS.jpg
this is fine
slopechart_VNO.jpg
wowser
slopechart_XLF.jpg
in the news
slopechart_SLG.jpg
commercial RE plunge
bfm4F5C_2.jpg (1030×585)
1
A deflationary yield curve steepener
Deflation scare upcoming in 2023 IMO. Yield curve indicates the first impulse. Linked post explains.
FDIC net unrealized losses.jpg (1004×767)
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
perfect bounce off the 61.8% Fib
1
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
1
Empire State manufacturing survey
Cost-push inflation? I don't think so. Not in manufacturing. Prices along with several other indicators tanking in...
slopechart_$NDX/$SPX.jpg
NDX/SPX
slopechart_$SPX.jpg
opened above the trendline
slopechart_AIG.jpg
are they sweating yet?
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1
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2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
slopechart_UEC.jpg
Which way?
1
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
2023-03-03_05-06-09.jpg (802×413)
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6...
Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
slopechart_RRC.jpg
Can it hold?
slopechart_ITB.jpg
Home builders testing short term support
slopechart_BILL.jpg
Beautiful
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
2
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San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
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The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
1
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When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
1
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The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
market reaction CPi.jpg (899×521)
Historical reactions to CPI
core CPI 2.jpg (1068×441)
Year over Year CPI
1
headline CPI chart.jpg (1071×444)
CPI and components
2 year treasury note yield
2yr yield ticks a higher high to the last high, and Stagflation has to be brought back into the discussion (linked p...
slopechart_LNC.jpg
Earnings after the close
Baltic Dry Index, commodities & inflationNotes From the Rabbit Hole
Commodity/Inflation bulls avert your eyes... or better yet, don't.
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
Heavy losses in the car lending business? Tough short
Inflation Expectations | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
So we have a booming jobs report... and the bond market's inflation signaling is not buying it.
January Payrolls +517,000 | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Hazel servicing the guests aboard the Good Ship Lollipop... boy is she ever servicing them!
1
Time to stare at the long-term Uranium price | Notes From the Ra...
If you like a looooong-term base that has turned up then you like the Uranium price.
slopechart_XLE.jpg
pushing at the upper level
3bbhbluxf2ea1.png (640×509)
A look at house payments vs income ratio. Housing market has never been this unaffordable (in history
1
slopechart_AXP.jpg
perfect trend line touch today; earnings Friday
slopechart_ALLY.jpg
back to the fitty
2 year US Treasury bond yield
Proof positive that market analogs will fuck you up when you least expect it as stock bear began well ahead of the...
2 year Treasury bond yield
When the 2yr Treasury yield breaks down we're gonna be in for some excitement, probably bullish initially and then...
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!