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Business
: Economy
AI Capex Oct 25_1.jpg (1027×631)
Hyperscaling insanity
slopechart_$US10Y-$US2Y.jpg
No bueno. Thanks.
probability of recession in 2025.jpg (1280×731)
1
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bfmEC85.jpg (991×571)
GBP_USD Mini_20250326_04.25.jpg
I am shorting Cable through GBP/USD mini because of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Spring Statement on Wednesda...
1
slopechart_(XLK+XLC+XLY)/(XLU+XLP+XLV).jpg
risk off
slopechart_RSPS,XLP.jpg
the Costco effect XLP vs equal weight
1
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Wages' share of the economy have been in structural decline since 1975:
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the biggest US companies have outperformed the index for good reason – they have generated much stronger profit growth
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US nominal GDP, relative to the pre-COVID trend.
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household balance sheets in the post-LEH era.
Stocks, Bonds, & Crypto Rally As Rate-Cut Odds Rise On Worst Mac...
This was the worst week for US Macro data since the first week of July
1
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Batshit valuations. This would be the equivalent of me selling my tiny company Prophet.net for almost a billion dollars.
5
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AI use cases
July 2024 deficit.jpg (991×600)
US Records 2nd Biggest July Deficit In History As 25% Of Tax Revenue Go To Pay Interest
2
discover capitalone chargeoffs_4.png (913×550)
1
credit card debt vs savings.jpg (1268×721)
Total credit card debt is at an all-time high while the personal savings rate is record low!
1
consumer credit monthly aug 24.jpg (1268×723)
Credit Card Debt Posts Biggest Drop Since Covid Crash As Rates Hit Record High
0 - 2024-08-06T073558.915.jpg (751×442)
US household savings are at an all-time low and US credit card outstanding debt is at an all-time high since 2010...
slopechart_FR:WM2NS.jpg
M2 declining ever so slightly
citi eco surprise may 2024.jpg (1280×726)
A picture-perfect head and shoulders pattern!
2
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dual-income-1.jpg (695×694)
img_0540-1_arrow.jpg (1024×744)
Snag_52a85f2d.png (1280×704)
Used car prices
1
slopechart_$BIGSUM.jpg
massive H&S forming
2023-12-07_09-18-27.jpg (1280×930)
So Obamacare has caused insurance premiums to go up hundreds of percent. Terrific!
interest vs military budgetr.jpg (987×548)
household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
1
Debt-Free-Growth-Economic-Deficit.jpg (883×519)
Debt-To-GDP-Growth-2009-Present-1024x565.jpg (1024×565)
F0SfUShaIAA6xLP.jpg
Things could turn ugly very fast at this rate
2
3JUN20.png
Beware of what this market is telling you right now!
4
2JUN20.jpg
3
1JUN20.png
French luxury stocks acting as a leading indicator for big tech?
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The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
bfmEBF7.jpg (1023×612)
Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
the next bubble AI.jpg (1076×621)
2
redemption.jpg (600×412)
This represents PURE PROFIT for gift card sellers
global EPS BOfA collapse.jpg (686×393)
Global EPS growth on course for -10-15% YoY in H2’23
ISM below 45_0.jpg (678×404)
ISM < 45 = Recession
1
PMI vs negative payrolls.jpg (723×487)
46.3 means "manufacturing contraction on fu...
bfmC62D.jpg (990×652)
US unemployment is now worse than Russian unemployment...
FDIC net unrealized losses.jpg (1004×767)
Empire State manufacturing survey
Cost-push inflation? I don't think so. Not in manufacturing. Prices along with several other indicators tanking in...
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2023-03-03_05-06-09.jpg (802×413)
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January Payrolls +517,000 | Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Hazel servicing the guests aboard the Good Ship Lollipop... boy is she ever servicing them!
1
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5
Philly Fed manufacturing survey for december
Philly Fed has decline to the pleasant 'Goldilocks' zone, conveniently during the Q4-Q1 market relief seasonal pha...
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2
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2y10y curve closed at the most inverted level in 40 years last night
Contra Corner Why The Fed Is Gonna Break Some Serious Financial...
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2022-10-28_05-44-50.jpg (938×572)
Americans' Savings Rate Plunges Near Record Lows As Inflation Overwhelms Income Growth
1
Contra Corner The Folly Of Central Banking In One Country, Parts...
Household Financial Asset Versus Nominal GDP, 1987-2021
1
2022-10-18_11-00-58.jpg (1015×614)
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recessio...
FdscXfAWIBY2FrP (1092×817)
It's just all so beautiful..........
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1
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US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Weakest Growth In Over 2 Years, Prices Paid Plunges
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PMI survey point to continued deceleration that appears to be steeper/more severe than what we saw in 2019.
empire state 2022-08-15_7-19-49.jpg (1237×610)
NY Fed Manufacturing Unexpectedly Craters In 2nd Biggest Drop On Record
4
2022-08-01_09-53-03_0.jpg (966×594)
Atlanta Fed Slashes Q3 GDP Growth As PMI Plunges
1
FYCc943XwAE1w5d (650×498)
Recession is here, no matter what the Biden blog tries to redefine it as........
4
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Retail Inventory-to-Sales Ratio For General Merchandise Stores, 2007-2022
image - 2022-07-15T071246.477.png (1280×777)
1
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China GDP Growth Plunges In Q2
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For four of the last 5 months, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average 0.78% on CPI day...
2
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1
2022-06-30_09-06-15_0.jpg (1084×709)
The US economy saw false hopes of recovery in Q1 of 2022, only to have that slapped in the face of optimists in Q2...
current account US vs Russia.jpg (1273×619)
2022-06-15_16-31-07_0.jpg (1002×565)
'Misery' Index (adjusted using CPI and LFPR) to its worst since Jimmy Carter was president...
3
savings rate May 2022.png (1171×721)
3
2022-06-01_10-31-17.jpg (991×650)
And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer...
2022-06-01_10-42-19.jpg (659×491)
Economy projection slashed severely (no surprise there)
1
2022-05-16_12-05-31.jpg (989×663)
This morning's 8-sigma miss to the downside for Empire Fed manufacturing dragged the US Macro Surprise Index into...
fredgraph.png (700×868)
Holy crap......US Trade Balance, 1992-2022
3
2022-05-05_05-32-10.jpg (937×597)
Disastrous Q1 productivity report, which posted at -7.5%, the biggest drop since 1947.
gdp-now.png (656×449)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasts Negligable Growth
1
2022-04-26_05-31-54.jpg (1176×685)
US Durable Goods Orders Growth Slowest In 13 Months
2022-04-11_09-19-25.jpg (1004×626)
3
fredgraph.png (700×718)
You can’t make this up. During the past nearly quarter of a century, the BOJ’s balance sheet (purple line) has...
3
CpaydWCWIAAUjMH (967×512)
Real-Oil-Price-Deviation-From-Trend-030422.png (542×360)
AVvXsEg2BkOwb70XcfN5KbHoLhZvFr_z_EJux3L8eFP0H_fVN3dhTiekzguE_Zzy8P7...
Oil is just about the only thing that we still make here.
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
US Trade Deficit On Goods And Services, 1990-2022
GDPNow.jpeg (1226×592)
GDP forecast
1
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Total Business Debt As % of GDP, 1971-2020
1
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Index of US Unit Labor Costs, 1971-2021
fredgraph.png (700×718)
Imports of Nondurable Goods, 1997-2021
1
fredgraph.png (1168×720)
Real physical output of nondurables in the US clocked in 1% below the level first achieved 25 years ago in August 1997!
1
caixing PMI.jpg (1267×633)
China PMIs Show Economy On Verge Of Contraction Amid Continued Growth Slowdown