Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated

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We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay.


Volatility Ratio Follow Up: How Many Days to a Retracement High?

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I think it’s only natural after a decline like Oct 10-11, 2018 for people to ask themselves a variety of questions.  “Is the bottom in or not?”  “Should I buy now or is it going to roll over again?” and “If it is going to roll over, how far does price bounce before rolling over?”

The question I’m asking today is, “After a decline that coincides with a $VXV:$VIX ratio under .90, how long does it take for a retracement to be put in and price to start rolling over?”

Based on the conclusions of my previous post, the likelihood of another test of the lows in approximately two months time appears to be high, even after a retested low has been put established.  On the path to two months from now, however, we still have to navigate a market day to day.  The paths after the ratio low signal triggered varied so much, it’s hard to really come up with anything consistent and even if there was a pretty clear repeated path, I wouldn’t want to suggest that there weren’t other paths that price could take, even a path that’s never been taken before because anything can happen.  In most cases, the final peak before a decline to at least the first low if not a lower low (or bear trap) took 4-6 weeks to be reached.  In the near-term, however, they all had an initial peak relatively quickly which provided a boundary for a chop zone (trading in a range).  This is what I want to explore. (more…)

Don’t Fear The Reaper

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It has been a while since we have seen a Three Day Rule signal fix, in part because the rule requires an initial 2% decline, and those have been pretty rare over the last couple of years, but the Three Day Rule triggers when there has been a minimum 2% decline on SPX and then SPX closes back over the 5 day moving average. That is day one, and that happened on Tuesday. The rule looks at the next two days and if there is a close back below the 5dma on either day then the rule fixes. That close back below happened yesterday, on day three. On this statistic we could see a fairly marginal high over the current rally high this week, but whether we see that or not, SPX should retest the low at 2710 in the near future. The only exceptions to this rule since the start of 2007 were two instances when an overall triangle was forming, and rather than a full retest of the previous low there were marginal higher lows over that low in the next few days.

This is the highest probability stat that I follow, and SPX is very likely to retest the 2710 low in the next few days. (more…)