
Drowning in Oil

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The old market saw goes that you should sell in May and go away, and rarely if ever in my view has that been more true than it is this year.
That isn’t to say that equity indices can’t go higher in the short term. I wrote a post on Tuesday looking at possible upside targets on SPX and QQQ that I would like to see hit, and have more modest upside targets on DIA and IWM that I’ll also look at today.
When we see the high for this move made, whether at those targets or lower, I think the prospects for equities over the summer look bleak. I covered some of the reasons for that in a post last Thursday on my The Bigger Picture substack looking at why the Iran War was largely irrelevant in the context of the economic shock being created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If you haven’t already read that I’d suggest that you do that.
(more…)I’m afraid things are about to get really boring again. Yes, we have AAPL earnings tonight, but c’mon, that stock is about as exciting as a passbook savings account. Almost all the really cool earnings are behind us, and it’s going to be dull until NVDA deigns to report a month from now.
This morning, the GDP came out, and our “hottest” country offered up a growth rate well below inflation. In other words, our currency is falling in value much faster than our economy is growing, so yay us.

