Although rates on other instruments appear to be firming up and even rising, it seems that mortgage rates are very close to moving substantially lower. Keep an eye on that topping pattern.

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Although rates on other instruments appear to be firming up and even rising, it seems that mortgage rates are very close to moving substantially lower. Keep an eye on that topping pattern.

It took many years, but Japan’s bond market has finally gone non-insane.

All eyes are on Jerome Powell for Wednesday. I bet the man cannot WAIT to hang up his FOMC badge and get out of there in a few months, making way for the grinning, brown-nosing sycophant Kevin Bennett to get in there to push rates too low and wreck the economy completely. In the meanwhile, bonds continue to go precisely the OPPOSITE direction you’ve expect.

Next Wednesday, the FOMC will make its last announcement of 2025 The nearly universal consensus is that they will cut interest rates another quarter-point. As a chartist, I’m finding the interest rate market quite interesting since short-term rates seem poised to keep collapsing, yet the longer you go out, the more stubborn they appear to be. Here, for instance, is the one-month rate, which spiked massively higher for has been in a near free-fall lately.

Judging from the charts below, I’d say anyone anticipating a steady series of rate slashes for months to come is delusional. On the contrary, it looks like rates are about to push HIGHER, which should just thrill President Brainiac. We just have to get next Wednesday’s performative clip out of the way.
